Tony Calvin: Stunning Treve dominates Arc betting

If any horse has ever stopped ante-post betting on a race dead in its' tracks it was Treve in the Arc courtesy of her stunning win in the Prix Vermeille on Sunday, which had to be seen to be believed.

It was actually game on in the Arc betting just 30 minutes or so previously as New Bay took the Prix Niel in commanding fashion, and was put in as short as 7-2 by some bookmakers for the big one on October 4th.

But then Treve went whoosh and, in fact, the only real surprise is that she is still available at 2.111/10 on the exchange market to secure a third successive success in the race, as you will rarely see a horse win a Group 1 in such a visually impressive fashion and with form and time substance, to boot. Take a look for yourself, with the French commentator describing the performance as 'magnifique'.

The official winning margin was "only" 4 ½ lengths but it could easily have been double figures had Thierry Jarnet ridden her out. And the runner-up is no mug either, as Candarliya came into the race on the back of four victories, including a Group 3 success.

If Treve backs up that performance next month then the rest are playing for places, and that is saying something as this could well be the one of the strongest Arcs in recent years with New Bay and Jack Hobbs, and the Irish Champion Stakes 1-2-3 of Golden Horn, Found and Free Eagle, in the line-up.

I suppose the only danger is that the race took more out of her than it appeared - it was a huge performance and not the stepping-stone effort she experienced in the same race last year when enduring a troubled prep - but it could be that the opposition, however classy in their own right, are clutching at straws there.

If you disagree, then lay away at 2.1211/10, but for me it now looks a waiting game until we see the opposition and conditions and draw on the day.

And it does say a lot about the potential depth of the race that an 11-length winner of the Irish St Leger was not even mentioned as an Arc possible in the immediate aftermath of the win, with connections of Order St George set to go up in trip for the staying race at Ascot on Champions Day rather than down to 1m4f at Longchamp next month.

I think that he could be a player in the Arc given the chance - he doesn't have that much to find form-wise and is clearly very progressive - but obviously we can't get involved ante-post with the race seemingly not on the agenda.

Closer to home, the Betfair exchange has put up markets on the Mill Reef and Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury on Saturday, as well as the Tattersalls Trophy at Newmarket on the same day. And look out for the Cesarewitch Trial being priced up in the next day or so, too.

But definitive running plans are hard to ascertain for those races - and the weather on Wednesday threatens biblical amounts of rain, too, muddying the waters - and there is little doubt that the big ante-post contest this weekend is the Ayr Gold Cup, which has attracted the small matter of 214 entries.

The unbeaten Don't Touch heads the market at around the 8-1 mark, which seems fair enough given his profile, but I think a 5lb rise for a head win in the Great St Wilfrid leaves him vulnerable and in truth a pretty unattractive prospect at the price.

I was very tempted to put up Glory Awaits at a massive price in the race, but I couldn't get accurate running plans on him and he is also in at Newbury on Friday, so I have to pass.

But if things become clearer on the running front in the next couple of days then he is of interest, stepping back to 6f for the first time since his juvenile days.

He is a very classy 7f/1m performer on his day, as evidenced by ½ length second to Tullius in the Doncaster Mile back in May, and forcing tactics in a strongly-run 6f could be ideal.

He has not beaten a horse in his last two starts - but then again one of them came in the Queen Anne - but has been dropped 5lb by the handicapper and trainer Kevin Ryan has won three of the last eight runnings of this race. Back down in grade off a decent mark, he is on my radar for the weekend.

Highland Acclaim is probably my idea of the most solid horse in this stage and is a fair price at around 17.016/1 given that he has caught the eye on numerous occasions this season, not least when staying on strongly in fifth in the Portland over 5fd 140yd on Saturday.

Off the same mark, you suspect that the ever-impressive David O'Meara will have him cherry ripe this weekend. But, then again, I can't see much movement in this market and on Saturday morning there is the prospect of enhanced place terms, too.

So we will keep our ante-post powder dry this week.