Tony Calvin: Course specialist Hopkins looks primed for a big run in Balmoral

I do fancy one at a double-figure price in a Group race on Champions' Day at Ascot on Saturday but I am keeping that quiet until Friday evening's column - don't worry, the price won't shorten - and in the meantime you will have to make do with a 16-1 poke in the Balmoral Handicap.

Look to back GM Hopkins at 17.016/1 win-only or better on the exchange, or at 16-1 each-way with the Betfair Sportsbook.

There is no real untold story about him, so this is not going to be one of those 600-word cases that have you rushing to unload or empty the account balance.

Not that my arguments are normally that persuasive, anyway...

GM Hopkins is an exposed 6yo handicapper, in stark contrast to the likes of market leaders Morando and Castle Harbour.

However, by the same token he is proven as a 114-rated performer at his best, and the assessor has done him an unexpected favour after his run in the Cambridgeshire last time.

But before get into the Newmarket race, let's take in the other positives.

This is a horse who you can easily argue has put up his three career-best starts over this course and distance.

He won the Hunt Cup off a mark of 103 last year, finished second to Musaddas (subsequently won a Meydan handicap off a 6lb higher mark by 1 ½ lengths) in this race off 109 last season, finishing 1 ¾ lengths clear of the third, and then landed a Listed race in April.

That is a pretty impressive CV in relation to his chances - he has other big-field handicap form, notably when winning the Silver Cambridgeshire - and the final piece in the jigsaw could just be the handicapper dropping him 2lb for his 12th in the main 1m1f handicap at HQ last time.

The assessor could have easily ignored the run because GM Hopkins must have lost at least two or three lengths when rearing coming out of the stalls and pitching down.

That may not seem such a big deal considering he was eventually beaten 8 ½ lengths but go back and look at the video, and his chance effectively ended there. Crucially, he was immediately put on the back foot in last place, and he simply never got into the contest, with his jockey looking after him for another day.

So he gets in here off a mark of 110, and that is 4lb lower than he was rated after winning his Listed race in April and just 1lb higher than his second to a well-treated horse in this race last year.

He went off a well-supported 12-1 chance at Newmarket, and I think 16-1 here simply looks too big. His stable are running at an impressive 37% strike rate in October, as well.

Everything looks set for a big run to these eyes.

Recommended Bet

Back GM Hopkins at 17.016/1 in Balmoral Handicap at Ascot on Saturday and/or 16-1 each-way with the Sportsbook