Tony Calvin: Ship set to Fire at Sandown on Eclipse day

This time last week I was busy making a case for Arabian Queen at 33-1 each way in the Eclipse only for it to emerge on Friday afternoon that she had suffered a setback and would miss the race.

That was a bit of a blow, not least for the fact that conditions would have been ideal for her this weekend - not least, the small field - and I would have fancied her to make a very bold bid from the front.

I know Aidan O'Brien has five in the race, presumably to help ensure a suitable gallop for his supplemented The Gurkha, but there is little guaranteed pace from what I can see.

Sure, Roger Charlton has stuck in Countermeasure to help give his stablemate Time Test a tow from the front but I don't get the logic of running these 80-odd rated handicappers as pacemakers. They literally have no chance, and everyone ignores them.

It happened with the 80-rated Barchan in the Queen Anne, and it will happen with the 81-rated Countermeasure at Sandown on Saturday. If you are going to run a pacemaker make it of sufficient quality that the field can't ignore him or her.

For example, Postponed's 106-rated pacemaker, Roseburg, in the Coronation Cup couldn't be dismissed as a no-hoper, and that horse incidentally went up 7lb for finishing third at Epsom. Talk about taking one for the team!

Anyway, we are where we are, and that is with The Gurkha heading the market at 2.56/4, which is quite something for a horse yet to be confirmed for the race, which is clearly an after-thought. And after-thoughts often make for shocks, as we saw with Minding in the Irish 1,000 Guineas.

And if the horse isn't A1 when he is scoped and his blood tested on Wednesday or Thursday morning, then he won't be coming, pure and simple.

We have seen with the late defections of Ballydoyle in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, prompting Minding to step in at the last minute, and US Army Ranger in the Irish Derby that O'Brien doesn't gamble with his top-notchers.

Before O'Brien mentioned that he was likely to be entered in an interview at the Curragh on Sunday, everyone assumed that The Gurkha would be going straight to the Sussex Stakes. But late changes of plan are a common theme this season.

You can't blame them though, as this is a very winnable Group 1, and they obviously think that last week's rain - as well as the fairly hefty deluge forecast for the South on late Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday - could put paid to the chances of their long-range target for the race, Deauville.

And more rain is obviously against Time Test, who was trading at the 3.02/1 mark for this prize last week before the heavens opened.

For bookmakers, this has all the hallmarks of the Prince Of Wales's Stakes Mk II, where some layers were stung by late ante-post bets on the Ascot race on Sunday night/Monday morning.

Some were still paying three places despite the race looking sure to cut up to less than eight runners at that stage, and the "each way thieves" copped the lot when My Dream Boat, Found and Western Hymn filled the first three places, with the favourite nowhere to be seen.

I anticipate five or six runners here, too. My Dream Boat and Western Hymn look certain to run, as does the supplemented Hawkbill. But other than that I can't see any horse guaranteed to run if we do get the rain, though clearly the market expects The Gurkha to line up.

If he does, then expect him to go off at a shade of odds-on over a trip that could prove his optimum. Remember, he would have probably gone for the Derby were it not for Air Force Blue and Air Vice Marshall blowing out in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, necessitating him sticking to a mile and going to Ascot.

I will sit the race out for now, but I am sure plenty of punters will be looking to punt each-way on the likes of Hawkbill and Western Hymn before the race officially cuts up. If they can, that is.

Outsider Humidor to revel in testing conditions

The front end of the market in the 5f Charge at Sandown is hard to argue with but Humidor looks worth a very speculative interest at 65.064/1 or bigger on the exchange. There is plenty of 66-1 available in the marketplace, too, but the Betfair Sportsbook are rightly ducking him at 33-1.

A reproduction of his run in this race back in 2012 is entirely plausible - he finished last of 13 - but at his best then he could massively outrun his price here.

Connections must have been tempted to stay in handicap company with this 9yo, who has now been dropped 3lb to a mark of 100 after his midfield effort in the Wokingham, but trainer George Baker is presumably being swayed by the likely testing ground.

Humidor loves soft ground, and if he is back in the form that he was when winning a handicap off a mark off 100 in the heavy at Epsom last summer - he "won" that race in the soft the previous year, only for it to be controversially abandoned - then he doesn't have much to find with many of this field bar Goldream, who is unlikely to get his ground.

If the ground did dry out by Saturday afternoon, my confidence would dip accordingly, but he finished third to Muthmir in a good-ground Portland and beat Kingsgate Choice on that going at Newmarket last June, so all would not be lost by any means.

Ship can sail home in Challenge

For most of the Wolferton Stakes over 1m2f at Ascot, I thought Best Of Times was hosing up, only to find very little, and he could be going on a retrieval mission in the Challenge.

But the drop down to 1m is a big question mark - for all it looked like it may suit at Ascot - and Donncha, badly drawn when a big disappointment in the Hunt Cup, and course and distance winner Mutamakkin are more likely lads to me.

I am very interested in Fire Ship though, as he is a horse I have been following all season off a falling handicap mark - he was rated 20lb higher this time last season - and he was badly disadvantaged by being drawn on the outside at Salisbury last time, where I had a little nibble on him. I thought he shaped okay, there.

Off a mark of just 85, on likely soft ground (if the midweek forecast is correct), and on a track that he has won at and goes well at, then I expect a big run. And at 34.033/1 or bigger, and at 25-1 each way with the Betfair Sportsbook, he is well worth an interest.

There is a maximum of 17 in this handicap, and he needs a few to come out as it stands (25 entries), but even if he does get balloted out, you get your money back. I do like his chances, even more so given more rain and a decent draw.

Expected rain makes Haydock a waiting game

Up at Haydock, the ground is currently good but the forecast looks dire - rain is forecast every day until Saturday on the BBC website - and I expect their three-day meeting to start very much on the soft side on Thursday.

That will suit 8-1 chance Bateel in the Lancashire Oaks if David Simcock wants to bring her out quickly after her Newmarket win on Saturday.

The final make-up of the field is hard to ascertain at the time of writing but Endless Time looks the right market leader at around 4.03/1, as she won first time out in the soft at Salisbury last season and developed into a very smart filly, culminating in a clear-cut win a Naas listed race on her final start.

But you can put up a few against her, not least Duke Of Cambridge runner-up Furia Cruzada from a stable with a good recent record in this race, and I am happy to let this race go untouched.

I don't have a strong opinion in The Old Newton Cup at this juncture, and I'm happy to see how much rain falls at the course before jumping in there.

Recommended Bets

Back Humidor at 65.064/1 or bigger in the Charge at Sandown
Back Fire Ship at 34.033/1 or bigger in the Challenge at Sandown, and/or at 25-1 each way with the Betfair Sportsbook