Churchill appears bombproof, but are there doubts about him?
Churchill's grip on the Qipco 2,000 Guineas was noticeably loosened on a couple of occasions last week, and he is out to 3.02/1 on the Exchange - a price mirrored by the Betfair Sportsbook, who are tops at 2/1 in the marketplace, when the horse is only 5/4 in some places - for Newmarket on May 6th.
The horse's Classic credentials have been impeccable since he was beaten into third on his debut at the Curragh last May - perhaps if the 2017 version of the Irish stewards had been around then, they may have had questions that day - and his CV reads victories in the Chesham, a Group 3 and 2 win, and National Stakes and Dewhurst successes at the top level.
He isn't flashy but is ultra-professional, trained by a master, boasts the best form, has won on fast ground, and is proven on the course. Seemingly bombproof.
But, as ever, the nearer you get to the big race the more the doubts surface.
He has never raced over a mile - though I haven't met a layer of him yet that would cite stamina as a reason for getting against this Galileo colt - and perhaps fast ground on the day would be a slight worry for him. His least impressive victory came on quick going.
And the O'Brien 3yo colts, the tasty Free Handicap winner Whitecliffsofdover apart, didn't pull up any trees in the trials last week and I'm sure the eclipse of the odds-on Air Force Blue in last year's Guineas will be wheeled out as a potential negative in the next fortnight, too.
And we won't see Churchill until the big day, obviously - though given all seven of the stable's previous Guineas winners won first time out, perhaps we shouldn't be too worried there, even if there have been a fair few disappointments along the way, too.
But clearly the main reason for his drift in the betting - and it isn't that marked by any means, as the lowest he has ever traded in the market is 2.3611/8 - was the emergence of two serious contenders last week.
We already had Andre Fabre's Al Wukair throw his considerable chapeau (I passed my French "O" Level a year early at 15, so there) into the ring with his impressive defeat of the runaway Lagardere winner National Defense in the Djebel, though a lot of people questioned whether the quick tempo of that race flattered his come-from-behind performance, as well as how suitable fast ground at HQ next month would be, should that materialise.
However, it would be very hard to crab the performances of Eminent in the Craven, and Barney Roy in the Greenham last week.
Eminent had plenty to prove form-wise going into the Craven having just won a maiden, but at least he had won on fast ground over course and distance, and he recorded a very fast time when beating the Racing Post Trophy winner Rivet last week.
He took a while to find his stride and could be susceptible to a pacier type but the manner of the win marked him down as a horse to respect in the highest grade, as does his impressive physique. He was quoted at 14/1 and 12/1 in some places in the immediate aftermath of that win, but you will have to settle for around 6/1 now that common sense has kicked in.
Barney Roy looked just as serious a tool when winning the Greenham though, and the top price of 8/1 about him after the Newbury win has also disappeared. He currently trades at around 6.411/2 on the exchange.
It will be interesting to see if the runner-up Dream Castle is also allowed to take his chance at Newmarket as he looked the winner for most of that race on Saturday and also looked potential Group 1 class - he traded as low as 1.041/25 in the run - but the manner in which Barney Roy picked him up was a sight to behold.
It was similar in style to Eminent's victory in that he took a while to hit top gear but you could not fail to be impressed. He won his maiden over 1m at Haydock, so it wasn't at all surprising that his overdrive took a while to kick in over the 7f at Newmarket.
Churchill now has three serious rivals in the 2,000 Guineas, and that simply wasn't the case a fortnight ago. Perhaps even his lengthening odds of 2/1 still slightly underplay his difficult task next month. The stable do appear very confident, though.
Where to find a bet in the 1,000 Guineas market?
The 1,000 Guineas has a very "messy" shape to it betting-wise, as the impressive Fillies' Mile winner Rhododendron heads the market at 3.814/5 and then you have Fair Eva at 9.617/2, stablemates Daban and Dabyah at 9.617/2 and 14.013/1 respectively, and bigger the rest. No-one has really stuck their hand up at the moment.
Aidan O'Brien's filly is clearly the right favourite on her 2¼ length defeat of Hydrangea last October and the form of that race is stacking up pretty well, with the runner-up coming out and winning the Irish 1,000 Guineas Trial this spring (a race which is worth looking at in its own right, with the likes of Winter and Intricately in second and fourth - and Homecoming Queen, the 25/1 1,000 Guineas winner, won this race in 2012).
And Urban Fox, a further six lengths adrift in third at Newmarket last autumn, finished a good second to Dabyah in the Fred Darling on Saturday.
She is probably a fair price at around 11/4+ and her similarities with Minding are obvious, but whether she has that filly's brilliance is open to doubt. And of course we haven't seen her either this season.
The fact that Fair Eva, whose limitations were perhaps exposed late on last season (though I hate it when other people say that about horses that have had just four starts, so I withdraw that comment), is second favourite suggests this race is screaming out for a latecomer to the party, but that probably underplays the merit of Daban's Nell Gwyn win defeat of the incorrectly-named Unforgetable Filly.
But then again the bare form is nothing special and a decision has yet to be made whether she or her stablemate Dabyah goes to Newmarket or France. You suspect Daban will head back to Newmarket - and the exchange market is leaning that way - but it's still a question you don't need to be asking yourself at this stage.
There must be a bet in this market then, but where?
Maybe Sobetsu is the forgotten filly of the race, as she started as the 5/2 joint favourite in the Fillies' Mile after winning a maiden over course and distance by 10 lengths from a subsequent winner in a fast time.
But I haven't heard hide nor hair of her since her blow-out in the Group 1 race. If I knew she was still being considered for the Classic, I would maybe chance her at a three-figure price, but I have no idea if, and where, she is.
So, all things considered, I think I will be looking for an outsider here, but probably only when I know the final field come May 5th. Running plans seem to be up in the air for too many at the moment - will Shutter Speed be allowed to take her chance? - so I will have to sit tight.
Maybe an O'Brien second or third string on the day, but let's see what gets there first.