"El Fabiolo's runs in maidens at Auteuil and Tramore do not amount to much. He is going to have to improve 10lb to beat Jonbon, First Street and Surprise Package."
The second day of Aintree's Grand National meeting starts and ends with handicap hurdles that have attracted 22 and 19 runners respectively.
A large no-go sign hangs over these races unless you want to take on the favourite Langer Dan 4.216/5 in the opener at 13:45. He was a game second in a similar handicap at the Cheltenham Festival last year and runs off just a 2lb higher rating following two runs which haven't told us much.
He was last of six at Taunton, then brought down at the second flight when favourite for the 23-runner Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham.
That is not my idea of an ideal preparation but Dan Skelton obviously thought he had a massive chance off 137 that day, and he races off the same mark. He is a risky place lay, but there is not a lot to lose if he goes off under 2.56/4 for a place on the Exchange.
Henderson pair can smother Mullins' challenger
The Betway Top Novices' Hurdle at 14:20 appeals more for laying. Jonbon is rightly favourite at 2.285/4, having come second in the Supreme at Cheltenham. A distant runner-up to Constitution Hill, for sure, but second nonetheless ahead of the Willie Mullins' pair Kilcruit and Bring On The Night. That was Jonbon's first defeat and you would expect him to be back in the winners' enclosure.
His stablemate First Street 6.25/1 is back in novice company after two exceptional runs against more experienced rivals.
He was third in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and posted another fast time when second in the County Hurdle at the Festival. He and Jonbon are both rated 147, 2lb clear of Surprise Package and 6lb clear of Vina Ardanza.
The unknown here is Mullins' El Fabiolo, and as we know the Irish champion trainer has done well with his dark horses this spring. State Man and Gaelic Warrior were thrown in the deep end at Cheltenham, yet were heavily backed and ran cracking races.
They were more experienced than El Fabiolo, though, and the five-year-old's runs in maidens at Auteuil and Tramore do not amount to much. He is going to have to improve 10lb to beat Jonbon, First Street and Surprise Package. He has a hood on for the first time, but can it improve him that much?
He looks a lay to me, but he is on the drift and out to 5.49/2 from 4.216/5. Set whatever limit you are comfortable with, and maybe only lay him in running at 4.03/1 if you don't lay at longer numbers.
L'Homme could lose out to Brave rival
The Mildmay Novices' Chase at 14:55 is a race that purists have been waiting for. There are just four runners but they are all Grade 1 winners.
Bravemansgame 2.486/4 is going for his third win at the highest level, his second coming in the Kauto Star Novices' Chase at Kempton in December when he came home seven lengths clear of Ahoy Senor 7.06/1. He did not go to Cheltenham and comes here a fresh horse having won a Newbury handicap chase easily enough in preparation for this race.
L'Homme Presse 2.526/4and Ahoy Senor were the first two home in their Grade 1 novices' chase at the Festival, but only because Farouk d'Alene fell two out when going well. His departure left L'Homme Presse three lengths clear, a margin he maintained all the way to the line.
Gordon Elliott's Fury Road 18.017/1 is smart on his day. Though the outsider of four, he picked up a Grade 1 prize at Leopardstown over Christmas, winning the prestigious Neville Hotels Novices' Chase by eight lengths with a round of immaculate jumping.
He was tailed off on his return to the Dublin track after a mistake four out put an end to his challenge but on his day he is entitled to be right up there with the market leaders.
At the odds, I'm inclined to lay L'Homme Presse 2.526/4 but he is tough and won't go down without a fight.
Hitman lacks winning punch needed for revenge
The Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase at Newbury eight weeks back is the likely key to open up the Marsh Chase at 15:30.
Charlie Deutsch made all on Funambule Sivola leaving Sceau Royal and Hitman in his wake. The tactics proved a knock-out blow and were decisive.
The three meet again with the winner the only one to have subsequently run at Cheltenham, where he was runner-up to Energumene in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
When picking Hitman as the best place lay option in this Grade 1, I not only took into account his latest run over two miles but also the fact that he is up against two in-form runners that are best at the Marsh Chase trip of two miles, four.
Indeed, Fakir d'Oudairies won this by 11 lengths 12 months ago and picked up another Grade 1 prize at the trip last time when winning the Betfair Ascot Chase.
This is a big step up in class for Paint The Dream 29.028/1 but he won the Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase conclusively by 15 lengths - and in a fast time. He is twice Hitman's odds 13.012/1, yet has more appeal each-way.
Add in the King George VI Chase third, Saint Calvados, and Captain Guinness, only a head behind Hitman in the Tingle Creek at Sandown in December, and you have a good case for Hitman finishing out of the places.
Give the Topham a miss
I wouldn't recommend laying any of the market leaders in the Topham at 16:05. Mister Coffey 10.519/2, Fantastic Lady 17.016/1, Senior Citizen 17.016/1 and Royal Rendezvous 15.014/1 have all finished in the first three in their last three races.
The one that hasn't, Five Star Getaway, is trained by Christian Williams and you don't make a profit laying his runners in this type of races.
The Cavani Menswear Sefton Novices' Hurdle at 16:40 is much more lay friendly and Stag Horn looks a banker place lay.
Archie Watson has a solid strike rate with the handful of jumpers that he trains but the jewel in his Lambourn yard faces a tough task.
His winter wins at Hereford and Warwick were achieved by making all at around two miles, four. When similar tactics were used over three miles in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham he was passed with a mile to go and pulled up knackered. He started at 22/1 that day, yet is half those odds in another Grade 1 race. Definitely not for me.
If you want a second to lay for a place at slightly longer odds, I would target Duke Of Bronte. He was rated in the 100s on the Flat as a four-year-old in 2018 and after three and a half years off the track has finished out of the frame at Fontwell and won an egg-and-spoon race at Doncaster.
He needs to improve massively to trouble the in-form market leaders Banbridge 4.57/2 and Gelino Bello 7.26/1. I wouldn't expect him to finish in front of Skytastic, Crystal Glory or Green Book, either.
Don't get me wrong, Duke Of Bronte's heart is in the right place and he is no doubt ready and willing. He has a mountain to climb, though, to finish in the first three in this competitive Grade 1.