Grand National: Kate Tracey's trend guide to the biggest race of the year

The stage for the 2022 Grand National has been well and truly set. Year on year the world's greatest horse race grows and flourishes and this may well be the biggest renewal yet. Of course, it is unfortunate that we are without the dual-Grand National winner, Tiger Roll lining up however, the race is and will always be bigger than one horse.

Last year's historic winner, Minella Times partnered by Rachael Blackmore was spellbinding and something the sport can be immensely proud of.

There are stories aplenty in this year's renewal however, and we must look forwards to continue to grow our great race.

This year's contest is as wonderfully tricky to solve as any other year. I've run the trends of the Grand National to help narrow down the field in the hope of finding the 2022 winner.

Move with the trends

The Grand National is a completely different race nowadays to what it was even 10 years ago and trends are certainly fluid as well so relevancy must be taken into consideration. For example, the trends would tell you that 29 of the last 30 winners of the Grand National were rated 137 or higher. That statistic helps us very little as a horse rated 137 wouldn't even have a hope of getting into a Grand National nowadays, let alone win one.

Therefore, the more relevant the trends to the past 10 years the better for narrowing down a winner of the Grand National in its modern format.

Recent races a plus

The first trend to look at is how recent a horse should have ideally run. 28 of the last 30 winners ran no more than 55 days ago. 55 days prior to this year's race is 13th February which would rule out such horses as Minella Times by seven days and Enjoy D'Allen by eight days. The other market leaders fall within that time frame.

The other horses this trend is a negative for are: Farclas, Mighty Thunder, De Rasher Counter who misses the cut by one day, Discorama, Court Maid who also misses out by one day, Freewheelin Dylan, Deise Aba, Battleoverdoyen.

Snow Leopardess just falls the right side of this trend as her last run came on 13th February. All the remaining likely runners fall within the ideal timeframe.

Three-mile chase winners

The next significant trend is that 27 of the last 30 winners had won over at least three miles over fences previously.

Fiddlerontheroof falls down on that statistic having won just twice over fences over 2m3f and 2m4f. Enjoy D'Allen is again, let down by this trend having won twice over fences but again, only over 2m5f and 2m5f114y. Farclas has won three times over fences but over two miles and 2m3f150y and the same can be said for Discorama.

Noble Yeats only has one chase win next to his name which came over 2m2f110y so he certainly doesn't tick this box either. Samcro has won three chase starts over 2m4f, 2m3f168y and 2m3f120y so he is yet to prove himself over this trip.

Phoenix Way has yet to win a chase over three miles. Class Conti also doesn't qualify on this trend nor does Augusta Gold. Therefore, there are plenty of horses who still need to prove themselves over this trip from a winning perspective.

Age trend beginning to favour younger legs

Horses aged nine years or older have won 24 of the last 30 renewals however, in recent years it's been eight-year-olds who have come to the fore. Eight-year-olds have won four of the last six Grand Nationals. The trends would suggest that the balance is swinging in the favour of younger horses nowadays so sometimes, it's worth concentrating on more recent biases.

The eight-year-old angle falls in the favour of Escaria Ten, Fiddlerontheroof, Enjoy D'Allen, Éclair Surf should he get a run, Longhouse Poet, Run Wild Fred, Farclas, Mount Ida, Fortescue should he also get a run, Caribean Boy and Easysland.

Cheltenham last time out is no negative

11 of the last 30 winners ran at Cheltenham last time out which is a notable positive for the likes of Delta Work who won the Glenfarclas Chase on his latest outing. Run Wild Fred also ran at Cheltenham last time out where he was overturned as favourite to finish second in the National Hunt Challenge Cup. Death Duty finished sixth in the Ultima on his most recent outing at the Cheltenham Festival. Mount Ida finished seventh and last of the finishers in the Mares' Chase.

Santini is even brought into the reckoning after finishing eighth in the Gold Cup on his last outing. Commodore also fits this trend but he didn't have his final outing at the Festival, instead he was last seen on a racecourse winning at Cheltenham's December meeting. Noble Yeats also ran in the Ultima last time out where he finished ninth when piloted by Sam Waley-Cohen for the first time.

Lostintranslation is another to have run in the Ultima on his latest outing where he finished eighth, just a neck in front of Noble Yeats.

Easysland was pulled up in the Glenfarclas Chase at Cheltenham and in the same race, Brahma Bull unseated. One of the last horses to get into this year's race is Poker Party who is another who pulled up in the cross-country.

Official ratings can prove crucial

It's always worth following the trends of previous winning marks and the Grand National is no different. The last ten winners of the race won off marks of: 146, 159, 150, 148, 148, 160, 143, 137, 157, 150. The median rating is 149 and the mean is 149.8. Therefore, as judged on the last 10 runnings of the race, a horse rated 149-150 is optimal.

The horses rated in that sweet spot in this year's race amount to just six runners: Good Boy Bobby, Coko Beach, Lord Du Mesnil, De Rasher Counter, Court Maid and Caribean Boy.

Runs of the season

Coming into the Grand National on the back of good conditioning is a given nowadays, but it's interesting exactly how many runs in a season is favourable. The winners of the last 10 years of the Grand National came into the race on the back of this number of runs: 3, 3, 5, 3, 5, 4, 6, 5, 4, 3.

The mean of these amounts is 4.1, the median is 4, the mode is 3 so 3 or 4 runs in the season coming into the Grand National is optimal.

The horses who don't tick this box are: Escaria Ten, Minella Times, Farclas, De Rasher Counter, Kildisart, Discorama, Fortescue, Noble Yeats, Freewheelin Dylan, Coko Beach, Top Ville Ben, Brahma Bull, Battleoverdoyen.

The scores

I've run the aforementioned trends against this year's line-up and for each horse, I've listed whether or not they are a positive (P) or a negative (N) for each of the six discussed trends. From there I've counted the positives to figure out each horse's final score:

1. Minella Times NPNNNN- 1
2. Delta Work PPNPNP- 4
3. Easysland PPPPNP- 5
4. Any Second Now PPNNNP- 3
5. Run Wild Fred PPPPNP- 5
6. Lostintranslation PPNPNP- 4
7. Battleoverdoyen NPNNNN- 1
8. Brahma Bull PPNPNN- 3
9. Burrows Saint PPNNNP- 3
10. Mount Ida PPPPNP- 5
11. Fiddlerontheroof PNPNNP- 3
12. Longhouse Poet PPPNNP- 4
13. Two For Gold PPNNNP- 3
14. Santini PPNPNP- 4
15. Escaria Ten PPPNNN- 3
16. Farclas NNPNNN- 1
17. Samcro PNNNNP- 2
18. Coko Beach PPNNPN- 3
19. Good Boy Bobby PPNNPP- 4
20. Lord Du Mesnil PPNNPP- 4
21. Caribean Boy PPPNPP- 5
22. Court Maid NPNNPP- 3
23. De Rasher Counter NPNNPN- 2
24. Anibale Fly PPNNNP- 3
25. Dingo Dollar PPNNNP- 3
26. Discorama NNNNNN- 0
27. Enjoy D'Allen NNPNNP- 2
28. Kildisart PPNNNN- 2
29. Top Ville Ben PPNNNN- 2
30. Class Conti PNNNNP- 2
31. Cloth Cap PPNNNP- 3
32. Freewheeling Dylan NPNNNN- 1
33. Mighty Thunder NPNNNP- 2
34. Noble Yeats PNNPNN- 2
35. Augusta Gold PNNNNP- 2
36. Phoenix Way PNNNNP- 2
37. Snow Leopardess PPNNNP- 3
38. Blaklion PPNNNP- 3
39. Deise Aba NPNNNP- 2
40. Poker Party PPNPNP- 4
41. Death Duty PPNPNP- 4
42. Domaine De L'Isle PPNNNP- 3
43. Éclair Surf PPPNNP- 4
44. Fortescue PPPNNN- 3

As you can see, the four horses who have scored the highest with five out of six positives on the discussed trends are: Easysland, Run Wild Fred, Caribean Boy and Mount Ida. Of course, there are plenty of other trends which can be assessed for the Grand National but these six variables are the most notable for the race.

With that, I wish you luck with your bets in the greatest race of them all and may the best horse win.