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Daryl's NAP is a 7/2 chance in the Aintree Bowl
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Says Maries Rock is the worst favourite of the entire week in the Liverpool Hurdle
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Has Skelton chosen the wrong one in the Red Rum?
At the time of writing, I am still awaiting declarations for the second and third days so naturally, I warmed to the first day more than the other two. There's some excellent value flying around at Aintree this week, and we kick off with the NAP running on Thursday.
A Plus Tard 7/2 (NAP)
Thursday 14:55 Aintree Alder Hey Aintree Bowl Chase
The market hasn't gone far wrong in this race over the years, with favourites winning five of the last seven and only one double-figure priced winner over the previous ten years.
This year's favourite, Shishkin 11/4, ran excellently well at Cheltenham in the Ryanir Chase, considering he hit nearly every fence on the way around. Nothing finished their race better than he did all week, closing right to the line, which has prompted this move up to 3m for the first time.
He is clearly still operating at the top of his game, and he did win the 2021 2m Doom Bar Maghull Novices' Chase at this venue, so the track should pose no issue. However, he has now gone from a 2m Champion Chaser to a 3m Stayer in three runs, and his jumping was alarmingly poor at Cheltenham just four weeks ago.
I was in his camp at Prestbury Park, and usually, I would be the first to suggest that his effort was worth a significant upgrade, but he hesitated at the start, jumped off slowly, and was always under the cosh to hold his position.
I find it difficult to believe that he has lost that amount of his speed in a matter of months, and I am inclined to think there is still a niggling issue. I am happy to take him on against some real proven stayers in this contest.
Bravemansgame 5/2 ran a scorcher in the Gold Cup and would have been a sixth-length winner over the reopposing Conflated had Galopin Des Champs not been in the race - I know, I know the race could have panned out differently.
Still, he has improved all season, but the race four weeks ago was his ultimate target and that gruelling test has surely left a mark on him.
He bounced at this meeting after having not run in the Brown Advisory last term and the previous year when well-held by Ahoy Senor over hurdles, having had a hard race in the Ballymore. Let's not forget he is also stepping in for the recently retired and two-time winner Clan Des Obeaux at the last minute.
Ahoy Senor runs this track well, particularly in the spring, but should he really be within a point or two in the market of A Plus Tard 4/1 (NAP)? I don't think so, particularly given A Plus Tard travelled strongly and with purpose in the Gold Cup until being hampered by Lucinda Russell's faller mid-race.
He had yet to play his hand when pulled up at the 17th fence in the Gold Cup but went off as short as 4/1 for that race.
How on earth is he as big as that here? He had valid excuses for his Betfair Chase flop at Haydock -being ill after the race - and a missed engagement earlier in the season means he is still fresh and well by all accounts.
He only needs forgiving one run for which he has valid excuses, and his previous start was a 15-length Gold Cup victory. There's little reason as to why this Aintree flat speedier track wouldn't suit him, and he's not done with yet. He represents excellent value in the contest at anything bigger than 11/4.
Teahupoo 10/3 (NB)
Saturday 15:35 Aintree Liverpool Hurdle
This race has the worst favourite of the entire week in Maries Rock 7/2. She blew out at the Cheltenham Festival and was keen and gassy for much of the race in a steadily run affair, and connections now step her up to 3m - seems bonkers to me, so I have to LAY her and take her on here.
Sire Du Berlais will obviously hold a strong place in my heart after landing us a big 100/1 winner at the Cheltenham Festival, and his claims for a repeat bid in this race are very valid.
However, I wonder if that race has left a mark on the now 11-year-old and backing up quickly within four weeks these nowadays is a big ask of him.
Teahupoo 10/3 (NB) looks good value at the time of writing, having been arguably unlucky when given far too much to do by Davy Russell in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham. He is the new kid on the block and has now proven his stamina.
At the same time, this speedier track will undoubtedly play to his strengths.
Many will write him off on the quicker ground, but good horses handle most conditions when racing at their optimum distance, and he has confirmed this trip is what he wants.
The layout of this track tends to favour those strong travellers. Aintree has three hurdles in the home straight, and his jockey can play his hand late.
Hatcher 14/1 (EW)
Thursday 16:40 Red Rum Handicap Chase
Hatcher 14/1 could go well here, and the Betfair Sportsbook is paying four places, so he looks like one of the best each-way bets of the week.
He is typically primed for Ayr at the end of the season, but it would be no surprise to see him put in a bold showing on the way there if that is the ultimate target.
He shaped in need of the run at Ascot 11 days ago, but there was promise on that first start after a wind surgery and the quick turnaround is an interesting move given connections have done this with him before to score, and his rider claims that all-important five pounds.
He would have won if staying on his feet this time last year at Ayr off of 145 and is now effectively 20 lbs lower in the handicap, thanks to Tristan Durrell's claim. Backing him during the spring months from April - July sees his form figures of 3F1111741112f2 - seven wins from 14 starts, and he is now down to a career-low handicap rating over fences.
He is more than capable on a going day and could easily cause a surprise. If Harry Skelton had the choice of him or Third Time Lucki, I think he has chosen the wrong one.
Racing... Only Bettor - Day One Preview