Click here for Doncaster St Leger odds
Saturday 12 September, 15:35
Live on ITV1
Enceladus all the rage ahead of final Classic
A changing of the guard at the top of the betting on Friday morning with Joseph O'Brien's Enceladus into a 2/13.00 favourite, and in the process he pushed Derby winner Christmas Day out to 11/43.75 at the same junction.
O'Brien junior has the improver, well that's how the bettors are seeing this and the Derby form is doing nothing for anyone it seems.
I suspect this could be more to do with ground. Christmas Day's very best could be on soft for him to excel, although he ran a fine race when second in the Irish Derby on good to soft before flopping slightly at York.
How does Enceladus stack up against Christmas Day?
Well, he has 2lb to find on Timeform ratings with 115 against Christmas Day's 117, but he is taking big chunks forward.
His victory at Royal Ascot may have been a handicap, albeit a gilded one as the King George V prize, but he was winning from 89.
The second from Ascot Al Azd has won since, again a handicap. But the third Believed has won a Group 3.
Enceladus himself stepped up in class to win the Group 3 Gordon Stakes, a race that has provided Leger luminaries such as Millenary, Sixties Icon, Conduit and Jan Brueghel.
If anyone has any of that Sixties Icon stamina they are doing alright.
Bonnard not far behind Christmas Day
Pierre Bonnard has been going everywhere that the Derby winner has gone this term, and gained Epsom revenge in the Voltigeur at York last time, and as a trial, I'd put a bit more weight in that race rather than the Gordon Stakes.
His second to James J Braddock in the Leopardstown Derby Trial was on officially good ground but asking me to back a winner of a Classic who hasn't won a race all season is akin to offering me a drink to help overlook the sheer modesty of this race.
He was on 5lb better terms to Christmas Day at York and should stay, but he doesn't possess the element of fire I like in a Group 1 performer and his TF rating is behind both the top two in the betting.
Chances for outsiders?
In my antepost preview earlier this week I wanted to take a gamble on Piazza San Marco for Aidan O'Brien due to the paucity of any class and as a 33/134.00 outsider thought he was worth the risk.
Of course, he hasn't take up the engagement amongst the Ballydoyle army but I still think that the race could go to a big price and a shock.
It won't be Alderman I am sure; who looks as slow as a boat and ran poorly in the Bahrain Trophy last time. He wouldn't want the going to get any quicker.
Hatteen won the St Leger Trial race earlier in the season.
The trip was just shy of 1m4f and the pace was steady from a finish speed of 107%. Hatteen's turn of foot on the outside was impressive, though, running and picking them off with 11.28 seconds three out, 11.51 two out and 12.09 at the end.
That Donny win granted him free entry to this race (oh Ambassador, you are spoiling us!).
A Timeform figure of 115 puts him right up there as he showed further improvement running second at Goodwood behind the subsequent Melrose winner. That again hardly smacks of Classic form.
Vinnie Roe success puts outsider in the picture
I'm determined to plough on with my outsider angle, and Highwayman at 10/111.00 is the each-way bet for me.
With form already at 1m6f and winning form on good ground, he at least has a couple of the Leger boxes ticked.
His season was in danger of going into a negative in four runs up until June, although it was somewhat bizarre to see him running over 6f and 7f.
O'Brien junior saw the light and upped him at Killarney - not exactly home of champions, but took his Maiden by 9L as if he was the Killarney Frankel.
Next step was a new assignment in terms of trip at 1m6f at Leopardstown winning the Vinnie Roe.
That was a race I put some substance behind with the thinking regarding Piazza San Marco, so it's reverting to Plan B for me, and not a bad one to have as Highwayman won quite comfortably.
Stamina on that run is clearly his forte as the Leopardstown left-handed turn can be quite tight and he was outpaced on the inside and pushed along.
The pace was steady too off 111% finish speed so there's every reason to think we can upgrade that performance and he was one of only two in the field to break 13 seconds at the final furlong.
His sire Persian King, a crack miler and Moulin winner is not exactly renowned for stayers and on my stats has only had six runners over 1m4f to 1m6f and just one over a Leger distance.
However, there are stamina doubts everywhere in the race and it is also far from a classy affair.
At 10/111.00 is the each-way bet here with three places.
Back Highwayman in the 15:35 at Doncaster EW three places