Daryl Carter's Tips: Thomas 15/2 runner is impossible to ignore at Cheltenham

• Chance the Irish in Novice Hurdle

• Skelton's could have a very smart one on their hands

• Sam Thomas has a handicapper it's impossible to ignore in lucky last

Before we get cracking a few thoughts on the races I choose not to play. Hopefully, the insight will help someone out.

Unsurprisingly, My Mate Mozzie 4/61.67 at Cheltenham in the 14:10 takes up a good chunk of this market. Still, ratings mean little in Novice Chase's unless you can run to them, and the Irish raider only ran to a rating of 125 on chase debut at Fairyhouse despite jumping accurately and being on the sharp end of a steadily run race.

There was little excuse for him with fitness on his side, having run on the flat this summer. It's doubtful he will improve 20 lbs on that effort to match his hurdle rating, but he will only need to run to 130 to win this. Still, he barely stays 2m and has yet to finish out a race for some time to good effect, hence why connections now reach for the tongue-tie. That could easily work, but there are questions over him at such short odds.

I had Paul Nicholls' Jetronic 3/14.00 running to around 125 in France on Chase debut, but I wouldn't say I liked his reluctance under pressure. He looks the part and will undoubtedly get good mentions from the paddock pre-race. Nicholls never throws his best horses at this race and certainly starts few on British or Chase debut at Cheltenham, so I am suspect of his presence, and this being his seasonal debut might just mean he needs this.

Al Zaraqaan 11/26.50 earned his rating of 135 through summer jumps, and his reign is about to come to an abrupt end, attempting to give away weight to all.

That leaves Walk In Clover 8/19.00, who could surprise a few here. She drops back in distance to 2m and returns to a sounder surface and the scene of her career-best effort when winning at this meeting in April. A reproduction of that effort will be enough for her to make her presence felt in this company, and she stays very well, so I expect her to be closing at the death and perhaps can exploit the lack of finishing power in the favourite should she be held up (I hope not).

She will appreciate the drying ground for which her win came on in April, and she arrives fit and well, having been better than the bare result at Chepstow when doing sufficiently to overcome a bad error at the sixth when held up off a slow pace. She could prove hard to catch if that pesky Harry Skelton uses her stamina well and reverts to front-running tactics (he has done so before).

Still, I couldn't find a serious bet, and I didn't want to Lay My Mate Mozzie as running to 125 might even win this. I also didn't want Al Zaraqaan on my teamsheet either. So I said, bugger this, there's money to be had down the line.

The 15:20 was of interest to me. Paul Nicholls was raving about Ginny's Destiny. Still, he hasn't been missed in the market, while Idalko Bihoue shaped nicely before coming down on his chase debut. However, backing a Novice immediately after a fall is dangerous from experience. Way Out shouldn't be underestimated, and double-figure odds are fair, although at 16/117.00 or bigger, I would have a small half-point bet.

14:45 Cheltenham - Back Tag Man @ 10/34.33 1pt

I liked Encanto Bruno last year, but his achievements were overdone. He remains with potential now with Mr Cromwell, and honestly, his price is fair, but he has recorded no decent time figure, and his win at Bellewstown was very slow compared to the following handicap.

I had El Elefante doing a good comparative time figure at Perth and running to around 120. Still, I struggled to find any worthwhile form other than a loose collateral line into Ireland, but again, the visual impression suggests she could have more to offer. However, her figure is precautionary with the ground change later in the card.

Mel Monroe clocked a good figure on seasonal return, but she was entitled to win that, given 15 lbs by an exposed eight-year-old in second. Still, she was quicker than the following handicap won by a now 132-rated horse, but again, nothing behind that runner in the following race had much substance to trust it truly.

If Mel Monroe runs to the level she did in a Point to Point, she may well win this. It's hard to be confident, but with what she and El Elafante have actually achieved.

Tag Man - 10/34.33 on the Betfair Sportsbook - was plodding when winning at Listowel, but he did have potential last year.

Still, I have him running to 130, which is well ahead of many of these, and he at least has substance to his form - and some solid substance at that.

He is ready to fulfil his potential, having finally broken his duck last time, and he has run better since fitted with the tongue-tie the last twice.

His second to Good Land in a strong Maiden Hurdle at Leopardstown at Xmas last year is easily the strongest form in this race. It's worth forgiving the time figure of his last run - which was slow - and putting that down to the fact that he could go a steady pace with those in behind, not up to the level.

He has proven capable of mixing it with sterner opposition, so his latest time figure doesn't concern me too much and gets the vote.

15:55 Cheltenham - Back Williethebuilder @ 7/24.50 1pt

Unsurprisingly, the market has chosen the Peter Fahey Toto Too as the favourite for this contest. While he was visually impressive at Navan last time, the circuit time was slower than the Lady's Handicap winner and slower from three out to the finish.

At the same time, many in that contest were ridden with the future in mind at the rear of the field.

He looks short enough. While there is nothing wrong with Act Of Authority's engine, he needs to brush up his jumping and maybe one for down the line.

Kamsinas dotted up in good style at Worcester when last seen, and he is feared most. Still, the suggestion is Williethebuilder - 7/24.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who was equally impressive on his season/hurdle debut at Uttoxeter, trouncing a previous dominant winner and has seen that form boosted by the fourth.

Still, he was levels above his rivals, efficiently dealing with the sedate early pace on par with the Mares Hurdle contest on the card, but he showed his class and powered away from three out to the line with the minimum of urgings.

That performance is backed up by some smart Irish bumper form from last season with Declan Queally, and he was picked up for a hefty £110,000 back in April.

There's a good deal more to come from him, particularly given he was still showing signs of inexperience at Uttoxeter. He is entitled to improve, and the four-year-old is one to be very positive about.

I made him a favourite on my tissue, similar to his current price, but I am happy to play at 11/43.75 or bigger.

17:05 Cheltenham - Back Angels Breath @ 15/28.50 3pt (NAP)

I have a view on most of the races on the Cheltenham card on Friday, but the strongest has to come in the finale with Sam Thomas' Angels Breath - 15/28.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

Sam Thomas has had his horses ready to fire, as I have mentioned a couple of times in this column over the past week, but Angels Breath has form figures of 201211 when fresh, and the effort where he failed to register a place came at Kempton after 1121 days off the track.

Connections revert to hurdles for the first time since running third in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices Hurdle at Aintree in 2019 (4 runs ago), and that looks like an excellent move. He reached a peak RPR of 158 over fences for former handler Nicky Henderson, was seventh in the Supreme Novice Hurdle in 2019 and went off an SP of just 6/17.00.

His class is there for all to see, but this return to hurdles from a rating of 138 - ten pounds lower than his last outing in this sphere - is too hard to ignore in this contest, particularly with that record fresh.

He will be fit and ready to fire, and Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle is a big positive. He might not be the force of old at nine, but he has only had eight races under rules and finished in the first two on six of those.

He makes plenty of appeal down into a Class 3 contest for the first time since an eight-length winner of a Novice Chase at Ascot in 2019 when the runner-up turned out to be a Grade 1 winner, recording an RPR high of 170.

Indeed, Sam Thomas' runner is a class apart in this field at his best, and his handicap rating of 138 is well within reach to land this pot. The only concern is if he is eyeing another prize down the line but his rating is low enough to think there's more than one race in the lightly tried nine-year-old, and they also have his Chase mark of 143 to play with.

I make this a strong bet at 4/15.00 plus.