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Take advantage of the four places on offer in the Sandown opener
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If last year's Potapova turns up, it's all over
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Identity can become a dual Sandown winner
I have this race so firmly favouring two horses that I am willing to back both.
The first is Indemnify - 11/26.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook- who will benefit from this drop back to seven furlongs.
Alice Haynes' unexposed four-year-old was an eye-catcher here last time over 1m when denied a clear passage continuously when the race heated up, and that signalled that this rating of 91 was not beyond him.
He has had a progressive season, and I am happy to put a line through the penultimate run at Newmarket when fitted with a first-time hood. He has shown progressive form at this Sandown track; this test is his bread and butter. He was a ready winner here in May on reappearance following a gelding operation for his former handler. He was then an excellent three-length fifth behind the smart and well-handicapped subsequent winner Perotto.
He certainly has more to offer, and I have long thought that a strong run mile stretches his stamina, so the move down in distance is a welcome one, and a repeat of his defeat here to Perotto will be good enough.
He has all the boxes ticked and sneaks into this 0-90, so another win beckons before being forced into a higher grade.
I wouldn't back any shorter than 4/15.00, but I find it hard to see him out of the four.
The other to back is Lyndon B - 13/27.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who will be popular but wasn't seen to best effect at Newmarket last time but gave the firm indication he was ready to return to form.
Interestingly, he has gone very well on his fourth run of the season in Britain. He went within a short head of winning at Bath last year on his fourth outing, won in 2021 here at Sandown and won in 2019. It may be a coincidence, but his highest career RPRS has come in the second half of the season, and his latest effort signalled he might be ready to strike.
He is 2-7 here at Sandown, and all of his victories have come at Class 3 level or lower, and this is not the deepest Class 3 contest you will see.
Of the rest, Tough Enough will prove popular, but his latest win over this trip didn't convince me of his stamina, having been held up to get the trip last time while his finishing effort wasn't strong at the line. Amber Island perhaps enjoyed the return to Leicester and being able to dominate last time.
Others make less appeal than those, but Alpha Capture is slowly coming to the boil, so keep him on side for the future, but this is probably not his optimal conditions.
The selection appeals at 6/17.00 or bigger but at win only as he has blowout potential.
Potapova - 13/27.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is too big a price to turn down, although I am cautious that she was put in this market at a huge 14/115.00 during the week. That would concern me, but Sandown is her track, and she put up a blinding performance in this race last year to record an RPR of 114.
Last year's race was more profound than this and worked out very well. The third won a Group 3 in Chantilly next time, the fourth won a Group 1, and the runner-up finished third in that same race. The fifth won her next two starts, landing a brace of Group victories, while the sixth finished a nose second in the Listed John Musker at Yarmouth, and even the eighth landed a Group 3 by the end of the year.
It would be highly surprising if anything in this field could record such a figure today or in the near future. Sir Michael Stoute's five-year-old is the best horse in this race on a going day, and today, she has all the factors to produce a repeat performance.
Back her at 6/17.00 or bigger as I would have her closer to favourite and 7/24.50 in my book.
Dual Identity - 13/27.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - was a big eye-catcher in the Goodwood Golden Mile last time from stall 20 after he had to duck and weave his way through traffic. He was never going to win that race as it transpired, given it paid to be prominent, so the fact that he was only beaten five lengths in conditions that would not have suited was an excellent effort.
The selection now returns to Sandown, where his two previous performances at this venue have resulted in two excellent performances.
The first was an emphatic win over the smart Tregony last July, in which that horse scored in her next three starts and is now rated 16 lbs higher in the handicap.
The other was a brilliant second in this race last year to the useful Protagonist when he did remarkably well to come from well off the pace and pass the entire field with the finish line just coming too quickly - he was beaten 3/4 of a length, but was ahead after the line.
Today's race looks deep on paper, but in reality, I am not convinced the likes of Eagle's Way, Gaassee, or many others with sexier profiles are well-handicapped, but the selection has proven this mark is well within reach.
He was second in his group behind only Jimi Hendrix at Royal Ascot in the Royal Hunt Cup and pulled well clear of subsequent winner Ghaly. That group included York winner Astro King and Ripon winner Isla Kai.
The move back in distance to ten furlongs today is a positive, and he has all the boxes ticked for a big showing, providing he gets the gaps he should be in the four places on the Betfair Sportsbook.
Back him at 11/26.50 or bigger.
I can't let Dashing Roger - 20/121.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - go unbacked here, particularly given there may not be a whole bundle of pace, and he is drawn well to attack. He is not the force of old, but he did show he retains plenty of his ability when a narrow second at Chester on his penultimate start, and he has excuses for his run in the Group 2 Celebration Mile.
At Chester, he attempted to make all but was keen and had to do a bit of work to get to the head of affairs, and he was picked up in the closing stages by City Streak, who was subsequently second in the Zetland Gold Cup and is since an Ascot winner rated eight pounds higher.
He was well supported when this column put him up for consideration at Goodwood before being pulled as a non-runner - although I may be dreaming that as his NR info is not on the Racing Post?
Still, he is handicapped to go well off a reduced mark and was a winner on his only visit. He is a bit of a stab, admittedly, so stake cautiously and back him at 20/121.00 or bigger.
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