Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: A Saturday six headlined by 10/1 Thirsk Hunt Cup NAP

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter has a NAP at Thirsk.

Daryl Carter has six Saturday selections, and his NAP runs in the Thirsk Hunt Cup at 10/111.00 while he tackles Newmarket's 2,000 Guineas card and looks to Goodwood for a 25/126.00 chance...

  • Six Saturday bets headed by Thirsk Hunt Cup NAP * two bets to follow later on Friday afternoon

  • Two strikes at the six furlong handicap at Newmarket

  • Royal Dress 25/126.00 is overpriced

  • City Of Troy will dominante the 2,000 Guineas

13:45 Newmarket - Back Apollo One @ 10/111.00 0.5pt e/w (5 places)

This is a devilishly tricky handicap that sees old favourite Summerghand head the market after his eye-catching display over course and distance 17 days ago. Given that there was a tailwind that day, which helped the runners at the head of affairs, he may be worth upgrading. He is respected but also priced accordingly. Instead, with five places on offer, I want to have a stab at two with strong claims.

The first bet is Apollo One - 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who has a very fair record fresh, and as the leading light of the P Charalambous & J Clutterbuck yard at their local track, I expect him to be ripe first-time up.

Last year, he was an unlucky third in this race when suffering interference at a crucial stage on seasonal return. He went on to improve throughout the season and finished runner-up at Epsom, in the Wokingham and in the Stewards Cup, and two of those saw Summerghand well behind.

He is fairly treated and is a likely pace angle in this race, providing he is fit and well (he has won fresh). He should be in the firing line at the business end and represents a good each-way value on the best of his form last term at 8/19.00 or bigger.

13:45 Newmarket - Back Apollo One @ 10/111.00

Bet here

13:45 Newmarket - Back Sterling Knight @ 14/115.00 0.5pt e/w

There are cases to be made for a handful of others, but Sterling Knight - 14/115.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is the other I want to keep on the side.

He was a big eye-catcher at Doncaster last time. He travelled powerfully at the rear of the field, but his claiming rider ran him into trouble in the middle of the pack, and he finished to good effect. That came after a four-month absence, and he looked a little rusty. In the hope that he has come on for that outing and is now partnered with David Probert and ridden more prominently, he is handicapped to have a big say.

A stiff six furlongs like today should prove right up his street, and he is a horse we have yet to see the best of. Play him win-only at 10/111.00 or bigger.

13:45 Newmarket - Back Sterling Knight @ 14/115.00

Bet here

14:05 Goodwood - Back Royal Dress @ 25/126.00 1pt

Royal Dress - 25/126.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - was a heavy ground winner at Haydock last season, so conditions shouldn't pose an issue today, and she looks to have been missed by this market, having finished off her time with Richard Hannon with two poor efforts.

However, she won fresh last term and the break, switch of scenery to James Tate, and return to Goodwood over a more suitable trip can see her go very well.

She was a brilliant winner first time out last year at Doncaster, but the best of her efforts came here at Goodwood and, in particular, the only time she tackled today's distance of 1m when fourth beaten less than two lengths by Choisya and Novus. She was continuously denied a clear run on that occasion, had to wait for an age for a gap and went fourth in the dying strides. There's a good chance she would have won that contest if granted a better path, and she is now five pounds better off with Novus.

Tate fits her with a first-time hood, having been keen last year. She is much overpriced in this field, with the caveat that she is fit and well.

However, she is unexposed at this 1m distance, for which she was crying out last term, and is expected to improve on her pedigree.

Back her at 12/113.00 or bigger.

14:05 Goodwood - Back Royal Dress @ 25/126.00

Bet here

14:40 Thirsk - Back Racingbreaks Ryder @ 10/111.00 1.5pt e/w (NAP)

Charles Hills only visits Thirsk sometimes, but when he does, he rarely misses with a 31% strike rate of 10 winners from 31 runners, with 18 of those finishing either first, second or third in his career. When looking at more recent times (in the last five years), he has sent just six runners, winning with four and finishing second with the other two for a 67% win strike rate, a profit of £10.17, and a £100% place strike rate.

He sends Racingbreaks Ryder - 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who was improving at a rate of knots this time last year before his form tailed off at the back end of the season and with an encouraging display on return at Newbury under tender handling catching the eye, he could be ready to strike off a reduced handicap mark.

The four-year-old is now nine pounds lower than his peak rating last term but found himself too keen when asked to tackle deep assignments like the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot. He has been gelded in the offseason, and encouragement would have to be taken by how well he settled at Newbury.

This may be his early season target, and he must be backed at 6/17.00 or bigger but I can see this going off as favourite for this race and I certainly think he will take plenty of stopping.

14:40 Thirsk - Back Racingbreaks Ryder @ 10/111.00

Bet here

15:35 Newmarket 2,000 Guineas

I strongly fancy City Of Troy - 4/61.67 on the Betfair Sportsbook - to land this with the minimum of fuss, and I hope Ryan Moore will keep things simple, pop out of stall two and make all the running for an impressive display - Frankel Style.

He is a horse of a generation and one we passionately discuss on this week's Racing Only Bettor (listen at the bottom of this page). I gave him a good write-up in the 2,000 Guineas runner-by-runner guide, which you can read here.

I was ever so tempted to put him in this column as a 4-point win bet, as I would have a good (responsible) bet on him, and that's how I would like to shape this column. The other reason is I make him a 1/31.33 shot for this race.

However, I understand that backing at these prices is not the demographic of this column's main audience, but I will make it clear that he will be a strong favourite of mine on Saturday.

However, as a column and with followers expected to back all selections, asking you to lay out 14 points on any day is unwise. The potential return for backing at this price, coupled with the rest of the column, means it's hard to claw back the layout and the column has to have a format of making profit on any given day.

*Added below selections at 12:30pm Friday

16:45 Newmarket - Back Shagraan @ 3/14.00 1.5pt

Shagraan - 3/14.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - was a near miss for this column at Sandown last week, and now he has turned out quickly he can make amends, reward followers' faith, and prove he is on a very competitive mark.

The Michael Appleby runner looks a fair price despite almost certainly scoring eight days ago if he had gotten the gaps, hiking his rating closer to 100. He was an effortless winner the second time out last season, and he has plenty of potential to become a graded sprinter for his new connections.

Given how he hit the line at Sandown, the move back up in distance is of no concern. He had the likes of Dapper Valley well behind at Newbury last season. He is drawn on the right side of the track for this sprint and should take plenty of stopping, having gained a new lease of life for the switch in yards.

Back him at 9/43.25 or bigger.

16:45 Newmarket - Back Shagraan @ 3/14.00

Bet Here

17:50 Newmarket - Back Zozimus @ 16/117.00 0.5pt e/w (4 places)

Zozimus - 16/117.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - was entered to run in the Thirsk Hunt Cup, but connections opting to run here at Newmarket, where he has gone so well in the past, makes him a more attractive proposition. This race has gone to four-year-olds in the past two runnings, but the selection at the foot of the weights is an appealing alternative to the age group that is mainly exposed.

The six-year-old was last seen on the Rowley Mile running an excellent race in Cambridgeshire when he was continuously denied a clear run from the rear of the field as he made stealthy progress. That run came off a mark of 84, and he was unlucky not to finish closer to the winner when beaten four lengths, having been forced to race away from the favoured standside rail, and he finished the race with running left.

He followed that effort up with another unlucky fourth beaten less than two lengths at York behind the useful Hafeet Alain in a hot Class 2 0-105 contest off 86. That was his last run on the turf after spending time until the present on the AW.

There's good reason to think he likes this Newmarket Rowley Mile, as he was only beaten three lengths in the 2021 Cambridgeshire when running off 94.

He caught the eye, finishing off his race strongly at Southwell last time out, leaving the impression that his time was near. In the hope that the return to turf and this venue, in particular, are good reasons to think he can shed his Maiden tag on this surface, he gets the vote with a race fitness edge on his side.

He is now down to a career-low rating of 78 and dipped into a Class 3, while the visor that saw him run so well last year returns in place of the cheek-pieces. He must hold good each-way claims at 10/111.00 or bigger with four places on offer.

17:50 Newmarket - Back Zozimus @ 16/117.00

Bet Here

Now Read 2,000 Guineas runner-by-runner guide

Racing... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now.

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2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) May 4th

2024 P/L = +62.87 ROI 24.51%

BSP P/L = +51.2 ROI 19.94%

2024 P/L Ante-post = +8


2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%


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