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13/27.50 Fire Flyer looks good each-way value at Kempton
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Tahmuras has been well placed at Wetherby
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3/14.00 Spillane's Tower fancied to down King George rivals
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Rachael Blackmore Boxing Day Superboost
Betfair ambassador Rachael Blackmore rides Envoi Allen in the 2024 King George VI Chase on Boxing Day. The horse has finished inside the top six in all of his last seven starts and today you can back him to finish in the top six again at the super-boosted price of 1/12.00 (from 8/131.61).
To take advantage of this superboost on the Betfair Sportsbook just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.
*Please Note: This superboost is provided by the Betfair Sportsbook and not by any of our tipsers or writers.
Back Envoi Allen to finish top 6 in the 2024 King George VI Chase
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The one that looks overpriced here is Paul Nicholls' Fire Flyer - 13/27.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who should prove all the better for his Exeter Chase debut second last time behind one who was well treated, had the run of the race and was receiving five pounds from Paul Nicholls runner.
The selection ran very freely in third but showed a brilliant attitude to keep finding at the finish, shaping as a return to further would prove right up his street. He jumped well in the main, and in the hope of returning to front-running tactics under Harry Cobden, he may prove hard to pass, having offered plenty under pressure in previous outings.
The Nicholls runner left his seasonal debut well behind at Exeter, and he scored on his third start of the season last year. Having pulled well clear at Exeter, with the winner now rated seven pounds higher and the selection off the same mark, he could be ready to strike, having enhanced his right-handed record away from Sandown to 2111. He also has a positive record on good ground and gets the vote over Asta La Pasta to score at 5/16.00 or bigger.
Asta La Pasta is high on the shortlist. Still, he may have to give his best today to a prominent racing Fire Flyer who holds some strong novice hurdle form from last year to suggest he is ahead of the handicapper. He improved that hurdle form on all known figures on his chasing debut!
12:45 Kempton - Back Fire Flyer
The Jukebox Man will be hard to beat, but he did hang violently left down the Newbury home straight and jump that way, so the move to a right-handed track (despite winning his Point going this way) may not be ideal. Masaccio--9/25.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook--looks overpriced on his running behind Ben Pauling's horse at Newbury last time, having come from further back than the winner, who dictated a very slowly run affair.
The move up to 3m is the angle to find improvement in Masaccio. He returns to Kempton, where his last visit was a dominant hurdle victory (in an admittedly poor race). He will handle this track, and I expect him to improve for this trip over fences for the first time.
In turn, The Jukebox Man may be a 2 1/2 miler, and the combination of the right-handed track and the trip favours Masaccio, who will win sooner rather than later and looks to have all his ducks in a row today.
Back the selection at 4/15.00 or bigger.
13:20 Kempton - Back Masaccio
This looks like an excellent placing by Paul Nicholls for his runner Tahmuras--10/34.33 on the Betfair Sportsbook. This is not as competitive as the market has made it out, and the Nicholls horse gets a clear vote of confidence, with the move up to 3m for the first time a strong angle for improvement.
Nick Scholfield is in the saddle but has had a 20% strike rate for Nicholls in the past, and the selection is on a fair mark on the balance of his form. The flat track is a positive, and he has improved to score on his second start of the season for the past three years.
Having shown up well last season in his novice year, everything looks in place for him to leave his Haydock run well behind and improve for fitness and this new distance.
It's hard to fancy anything against him, and provided he is on song he will be hard to beat. Back the selection as low as 2/13.00.
13:35 Wetherby - Back Tahmuras
Denemethy - 5/23.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - offers good value at 2/13.00 or bigger, having shaped with a good deal of promise for this column 20 days ago at Exeter, and he should be well suited to this sharp right-handed flat track with his latest seasonal return under his belt.
The six-year-old cruised through the Exeter race with plenty of zest and effortlessly moved through the field before his early excursions took their toll. He shaped, as expected, like a very well-handicapped horse before leaving the impression he would be all the better for his first run for 234 days.
He is entirely unexposed, and the handicapped dropped him a generous three pounds, and he now starts out in a 0-120. Jack Hogan claims a further three off his back, meaning he is six lower than when catching the eye in a better race at Exeter last time, and this contest is there for the taking. His point-to-point form, including thumping Lowry's Bar (138), is very strong and by far the best on offer in this field. He also has good form when behind the useful 130-plus rated Mint Boy, and his Wincanton hurdle victory suggests he has plenty of scope in this rating of 116.
He makes stacks of appeal to overturn some of these rivals who all arrive with something to prove and 2/13.00 or bigger is acceptable for a solid bet.
14:22 Market Rasen - Back Denemethy
It is a fascinating contest in which all have claims and negatives to their chances. Starting at the top of this market, Spillane's Tower--3/14.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook--holds the best recent form with his excellent John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase runner-up effort to Fact To File, and there's little doubt a repeat will make him tough to beat.
That form is levels above what any of these have achieved. Although there are questions about his first run outside of Ireland, he is an improving six-year-old who is firmly on the upgrade, and if he is anything like he was last season, he will improve again now that he is race-fit.
Mark Walsh chose him, and his connections supplemented him for this race. The sharp three miles should suit him well; he is unexposed at this trip. Besides being very critical and suggesting he is at his best at Punchestown (form figures of 21112) and unproven on his travels, he is very hard to escape.
I envisage him travelling strongly into this contest and outstaying some of these rivals in the finish. He is as good as having a Fact To File or Gallopin Des Champs in this race on his latest piece of form, which sets a high standard. By Walk In The Park, the ground will not be why he is beaten.
Grey Dawning backers on the other hand, must be concerned about the ground, and he can jump left, which won't aid his cause here. Still, he is on the upgrade, and despite this being an afterthought following a gruelling test at Haydock, he must be considered.
Will Corbetts Cross have the pace for this challenge? Mark Walsh disregards him, and Derek O'Connor gets the call-up. He doesn't jump well enough for me to think a speed test around Kempton is what he wants, so he is passed over along with Envoi Allen, Juntos Ganamos, The Real Wacker, General En Chef and Bravemansgame.
L'Homme Presse is interesting, given his excellent seasonal return record, but this is undoubtedly his toughest assignment. He is another than can jump left and his best efforts have come on a left-handed track. He was working his way back from injury last term and could be much straighter today. Still, fast ground and right-handed are not the combinations that have seen him to the best effect.
By process of elimination, Il Est Francais is a danger despite coming with risks attached. He pulled up and bled in France 39 days ago. However, his two poor efforts in France have come when the ground has been desperate. For example, the winning time of his penultimate run was 17 seconds quicker than the winner's time in April when he finished fifth.
Everything about his pedigree points to wanting quicker ground, and there's no doubt he was impressive in the Kauto Star last year, running away with the contest in a better time than that year's King George.
Under James Reveley's positive tactics, he has the potential to be an emphatic winner. However, I am not convinced his connections know what they are doing with him sometimes. They ran him over 3m3f on desperate ground 39 days ago. He looks more like a speedster than a slogger, and he may be a superstar if he is with the right outfit.
Anything going quicker than Il Est Francias in the early stages is going too fast, so I expect him to be in pole position. My one niggle is how much he will find off the bridle when push comes to shove, but he holds good claims returned to Kempton.
Banbridge is the other that made my shortlist. He is bred to improve for 3m, so he is a correct second favourite, having looked to be going close when attempting to give 10lb to Engergumene at Cork last time (2m). He is a course winner over Pic D'Orhy over 2m4f, and today, he has his optimum ground conditions. He is very high on the shortlist, with the cheek-pieces returning for just the second time in his career (he won at Punchestown in them). The headgear and move-up in the trip could be a cause for concern, but it offers confidence his connections think the trip is no issue. His jumping is not always the smoothest, hence the headgear.
Still, Spillane's Tower is the one to be with, and he makes plenty of appeals if he can run within 8 lb of his reappearance effort. There's good reason (above) to think he can better it.
Back the selection at 11/43.75 or bigger.
14:30 Kempton - Back Spillane's Tower
Podcast selections
12:45 Kempton - Fire Flyer
13:05 Aintree - Potters Charm
13:20 Kempton - Masaccio
13:35 Wetherby - Tahmuras
13:55 Kempton - Constitution Hill
14:30 Kempton - Spillane's Tower (NAP) should he come out, Il Est Francias
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