Daryl Carter's Tips: 13/2 Novice can reverse Challow Hurdle form

• Three Friday bets

• Sail Away can dominate the handicap being the sole pace angle

• A P/L update

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13:50 Newbury - Back Marble Sands @ 13/27.50 1pt

A good race, and much revolves around Challow Hurdle winner Hermes Allen, and if he can produce the same level of form he did over hurdles, switched to the chasing sphere. However, he was due to start back last month before suffering a setback, and although a point-to-point winner, he is small in stature and did jump to the right, according to reports. He looks short enough for this return to action.

Nickle Back has produced two good performances in two chase starts, but he was tiring at Stratford and may want a more turning and sharper track to be seen to best effect at this trip and looks more of a two-miler to my eye. He might have piqued too early.

I want to take a chance with Marble Sands - 13/27.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who has been priced on his form when behind Hermes Allen in the Challow Hurdle rather than what he achieved on chase debut at Ayr on seasonal return when scoring in a handicap.

Despite racing wide, he jumped well and recorded an excellent circuit time figure - 32 lengths quicker than a subsequent Haydock winner on the card in Famous Bridge - and a six-length faster closing four-out to finish sectional time to take care of a couple of fellow improvers. That run came over a trip short of his best, and moving back up to 2 1/2 miles today is a positive move, having hit the line hard. That performance was an improved display on anything he achieved over hurdles.

His record on a sounder surface such as today has seen him record form figures of 1111232 outside of his debut bumper run at Warwick, and the change in surface and chase experience may allow him to reverse course form with Hermes Allen, who has done his best work on a slower surface.

This selection has it all to do, but has achieved the most in this sphere on the latest evidence, and the price doesn't reflect that, so any 4/15.00 or bigger makes appeal.

Of the rest, Colonel Mustard is respected, but he started darting out to the right behind Found A Fifty at Down Royal, and that could cost him enough ground returning to a left-handed track. Meanwhile, No Ordinary Joe might need the experience.

Tightenourbelts did well at Ludlow but takes a steep rise in class and will be seen to best effect over staying distances in this sphere down the line.

14:25 Newbury - Back Sail Away @ 11/26.50 1pt

I have written this line all too often, but if Harry Skelton decides to continue with front-running tactics with Sail Away - 11/26.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - he could easily dominate this race that lacks pace.

Newbury can favour those ridden prominently, and with no competition for the lead, it would be mind-boggling if the Skelton clan didn't continue the tactics that have seen their seven-year-old to best effect.

Sail Away's career-best performance came when last seen at Ayr over three miles, but it's not wise to think this move down in trip is a negative given the figures he clocked that day. The selection only trotted round for the first circuit. Still, on his second, he clocked a circuit time 27 lengths faster than 2m winner Malystic and recent Haldon Gold Cup winner Elixir De Nutz, and to back up that figure, he also clocked a 27 length faster time than the 2m4f winner Datsalrightgino.

The performance suggested that this unexposed seven-year-old was firmly on the upgrade, and while it may be unwise to expect him to match that performance the first time up, he does have the conditions for a repeat with a sounder surface and a likely soft lead.

As the only pace angle in the race, he looks worth chancing at 4/15.00 or bigger. Kandoo Kid and Welsh Grand National entrant Iron Bridge are feared most.

15:35 Newbury - Back Gentleman At Arms @ 13/27.50 0.5pt e/w

The Nicky Henderson-trained Hyland is the obvious starting place in this race as he bids for a hattrick, but his finishing splits at Cheltenham were the slowest on the card. Despite not running the fastest circuit of any race and up six pounds - he might prove vulnerable.

The unexposed handicap debutants Hoe Joly Smoke and Ed Keeper are likely to prove popular, but both must prove their stamina for this test, while Ramo might be up to defying this step up in grade.

However, there are no ifs, buts or maybes when it comes to Stuart Edmunds' Gentleman At Arms - 13/27.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who bounced back to form at Aintree in re-fitted headgear and put last season's poor efforts well behind him. He is worth keeping faith with to continue going in the right direction, having been rated in the 140s not long ago, and his only visit to this venue saw him score on the flat.

His victory at Aintree came in a stronger race than this, and he tanked through the race, only being asked for maximum effort inside the half-furlong market. He could have done with more of a stamina test so it's worth upgrading. He remains fairly unexposed at three miles, which looks the bare minimum for him, and his attitude will certainly give confidence that he will fill the frame today.

Rambo T wasn't best positioned at Cheltenham and ran an identical figure to the winner Pinnacle Peak, but his stamina is not a given, and it may be he needs a more truly run race at 2 1/2 miles. I've fallen for Skandiburg on many occasions when running here, and he may pop up at some point, but history tells us it won't be on seasonal return but when Gavin Sheehan is booked.

Sheehan is booked for Espoir De Romay and has a 3-7 43% strike rate for Kim Bailey. He failed to handle the downhill part of the Cheltenham hill when well behind Hyland, but it's disappointing he didn't run better in cheek-pieces and a tongue-tie with a good fresh record. The latter is removed now, but he hasn't looked the horse he once was.

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P/L Update

As per every month, here is the full P/L breakdown. More info on request, such as tracks, hurdle/flat, by day, by price bracket, by horse rating band.

Updated Yearly

Yearly Current Advised Stakes P/L = +120.37pts ROI 10.18%
Yearly Current BSP P/L = +114.0pts ROI 9.64%

Ante Post = +34pts (separate not included in the daily above but to be added at the end of the year)

Best Day of the week this year: Saturdays ROI 30.98%

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Last month

NOV Advised Stakes= -2.86Pts ROI -3.93%%
NOV BSP -0.7pts ROI -0.93%

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Year broken down by month

Jan = -1
ROI = -1.76%

Feb = +45
ROI = +50.11%

March = +41.37
ROI =+35.36%

April = +31.16
ROI = +21.49%

May = -19
ROI = -14.14%

June = -22.9
ROI = -22%

July = -7.8
ROI -7.1%

Aug = +25.67
ROI = +19.90%

Sept = -18.65
ROI = -22%

Oct = +53.18
ROI = +58.13%

NOV = -2.86
ROI = -3.93%

Monthly Breakdown to BSP

Jan = +26.5
ROI = +25%

Feb = +32.2
ROI =+35.8%

March = +42.7
ROI = +36.4%

April = +63.7
ROI = +43.9%

May = -24.9
ROI = -18%

June = -27.7
ROI = -27.01%

July = -12.3
ROI = -11.21%

Aug = +12.1
ROI = +9.38%

Sept = -32
ROI = -37.4%

Oct = +36.4
ROI = +39.81%

NOV = -0.7
ROI = -0.93%

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WIN BETS AND E/W BETS YEARLY

WIN BETS

Advised = +25.3pts ROI 2.71%
BSP = +48.6pts ROI 5.2%

E/W BETS

Advised = +95pts ROI 38.31%
BSP = +65.5pts ROI 26.40%

YEARLY BY POINTS STAKED

0.5pt win = +1.5 ROI +16.67%
1pt win = -49 ROI -10.63%
1.5pt win = +0.58 ROI +0.53%
2pt win = +33.05 ROI +13.55%
2.5pt win = +7.1 ROI +17.81%
3pt win = +9 ROI +21.43%
3.5pt win = -3.5 ROI -100%
4pt win = +15.5 ROI +77.5%
5pt win = +11.23 ROI +225%

0.5pt e/w = +13.25 ROI +20.08%
1pt e/w = +4.9 ROI +3.27%
1.5pt e/w = +72.45 ROI +301.88%
2pt e/w = +4.4 ROI +55%

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Read Cheltenham Festival Focus Week 4 here

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