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Back Richard to Master York rivals from the front
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Flora Of Bermuda can improve for six furlongs
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Bag to enhance outstanding Newmarket record
I wanted to keep it light on Friday. There is so much racing that it can be overwhelming, and I have a strong hand on Saturday. Best of luck if you follow me in and bet responsibly.
13:50 Newmarket - No Bet
A competitive opening handicap at Newmarket, the first surprise was to see William Buick choose Royal Power over Endless Victory, who once had Derby aspirations. Both look like they are not thrown in on any form line, but it is challenging to dismiss them.
Mark and Charlie Johnston are a team that has targeted this contest in recent years, and I was gutted to see True Wisdom not take her chance. She is well-treated off 83 on her only good turf run, which came at this venue.
Still, the more I went through this race the more I liked Chantilly. The Aidan O'Brien runner looked to struggle with the rattling (firm) fast ground at Royal Ascot and hung right under pressure inside the final furlong. That was an eye-catching effort, and the return to ten furlongs and softer ground are big positives for him. He still holds Group entries down the line, and this mark is not beyond him, while his London Gold Cup form is a strong reason to think he can get his head back in front.
Involvement has taken steps forward with each run, and he may have also found the ground too quick for him at Royal Ascot when a very creditable seventh in the red-hot Britannia Handicap when racing in no-mans land down the centre of the track and attempting to come from well off the pace. Along with Chantilly, those two are the preferred ones, but I found it difficult to split them.
14:05 York - Back Master Richard @ 12/113.00 1pt e/w (5 places) (NAP)
It's good to soft over at York; there are many to consider in this tricky handicap. Tolstoy is a worthy favourite on the back of his two victories, and his back form means it's tough to suggest he is done winning yet. Quest For Fun was the big eye-catcher at that event and was not passed over lightly.
I want to take an each-way chance with Master Richard - 12/113.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who has shaped like he is building to a bigger effort in three starts this term. He isn't the strongest stayer at 1m, and he did a lot of work from a poor draw to get the lead at Redcar last time, only to fade in the closing stages. He was better than the bare result on that occasion, and although unsuited by how the race panned out at Doncaster on his penultimate start behind Silver Samurai, he did stick to the task well.
The cheekpieces' re-fitting looks positive despite having no success the first time. Two years ago, Anne Duffield's runner came good at this time of year when scoring at this venue over Point Lynas (now rated 105). He is well suited to a turning track and is drawn well to grab the lead. Given that he was a little free in this headgear when last tried over 1m, the move down in trip could prove the correct combination.
There's enough with Master Richard, who won on this card two years ago, to think he could be coming to the boil, and today looks like the day to catch him in the hope he can gain the first run on a handful of these drawn wide. At 10/111.00 or bigger, he appeals.
14:05 York - Back Master Richard
14:25 Newmarket - No Bet
The market looked generous with the price of Heavens Gate at 7/24.50, who did remarkably well on the sharp end of the gallop when setting a blistering pace for her stablemate Fairy Godmother. She kept on in third that day and was going away from Mountain Breeze (4th) at the line, so I see no reason she can't confirm that form.
She is impeccably bred and quickly has the most potential going forward. While she will improve for distance in due course, she sets the standard today, and the drying ground will enhance her claims. Her early fractions at Ascot were eye-catching, and she was only reeled in late by a couple ridden cold, so providing Ryan Moore gets the splits correct, she will be hard to beat.
I had a basement price of 2/13.00, which has been swept up, so unfortunately, there is no action here.
14:40 York - Back Flora Of Bermuda @ 12/113.00 1pt
I found this difficult, but I want a small swing with Flora Of Bermuda -12/113.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook. I like the idea of her stepping up in trip - her family stayed up to 1m - and there is no better place to try it again than York. She has a good record when soft is in the going description outside of her reappearance, and her form is strong enough to play a severe hand in this contest.
She arrives off the back of a career-best effort at Sandown, when only narrowly failing to peg back Adaay In Devon. That is a stiff five furlongs, so the improvement and the angle to back her are reliant on the step up in trip.
She looks like a fair price despite finishing last on her only effort here in, which she shaped well for a long way but looked to hate the fast ground when asked under pressure. Back the selection at 9/110.00 or bigger.
14:40 York - Back Flora Of Bermuda
15:00 Newmarket - Back Bague d'Or @ 6/17.00 1pt
Fox Journey didn't get the rub of the green at Ascot when caught far to back off the gallop, and it's probably wise to forgive that effort, considering the market did send him off favourite with a Willie Mullins runner.
However, it's the well-treated two-time Newmarket scorer Bague d'Or - 6/17.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who must be of interest returned to this July course where he holds a perfect record.
He was never involved at Ascot when dropped back in distance from a wide draw, and he couldn't get into the 1m6f option at that meeting. Today looks far more suitable for him, and course form at Newmarket is worth its weight in gold. Furthermore, he is well handicapped on the balance of his staying form and with the ground drying out he makes a good appeal as the likely winner of this contest.
According to connections, the Ebor is his final target of the year, but he will need to rise up the handicap to get in that race this year, and there won't be many better opportunities than at a course he loves.
5/16.00 or bigger is acceptable.
15:00 Newmarket - Back Bag d'Or
15:35 Newmarket - No Bet
It's a fascinating clash between the generations, and it's very tough to pick between Porta Fortuna and Running Lion. I was always of the opinion that Running Lion was best away from undulating tracks, and there is plenty of evidence, despite having a Newmarket victory under her belt, that the theory is correct. Still, I was impressed with her at Ascot, which means it's tough to entirely be against her.
Porta Fortuna was excellent in winning the Group 1 Coronation at the Royal Meeting, and fast ground around a bend makes her look optimum.
She ran very well here on the Rowley Mile in the 1,000 Guineas and handled the track well. She is the correct favourite, but there's little juice in the price to get involved. Best of luck if you're playing.
Now Read: Daryl Carter: Betfair tipster wins SBC Award for third year in a row
Recommended bets
Back Master Richard to win the 14:05 at York @ 12/113.00 1pt e/w (5 places)
Back Flora Of Bermuda to win the 14:40 at York @ 12/113.00 1pt win
Back Bag d'Or to win the 15:00 at Newmarket @ 6/17.00 1pt win
DARYL'S P/L
2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) AUG 1st
2024 P/L = +76.04 ROI 12.81%
BSP P/L = +62.9 ROI 10.60%
2024 P/L Ante-post = +4
DARYL CARTER'S P/L HISTORY
2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI
2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI
2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI
2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%