Daryl Carter's Tips: 11/2 is a fabulous price for El in Grade 1 Dublin Chase

• El Fabiolo must be backed to enhance 2-2 track and 100% season return record

• Lily Du Berlais 18/119.00 is the E/W value

• Cadell can land Edinburgh National
  

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12:40 Leopardstown - Back Lily Du Berlais @ 18/119.00 1pt e/w (5 places)

Lily Du Berlais - 18/119.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - was highlighted as a potential plot job for this race midweek, and her price has held to a backable one. The nine-year-old represents last year's winning outfit and is JJ Slevin's choice.

She has dropped to a very fair rating and holds a good record in two runs at this venue. At the same time, the hood and tongue tie return for this race, and when this is applied, her form figures read 112034221.

The form of her Novice season in 2023 is powerful, and JJ Slevin is 2-3 when on board. She looks well worth chancing at 16/117.00 or bigger. Queens Gamble is the chief threat, and followers may consider a saver on the favourite.

14:10 Leopardstown - Back El Fabiolo @ 11/26.50 2.5pt win (NAP)

The fitting of the tongue-tie to favourite Gaelic Warrior for the first time would not be a welcome sign for his backers, and this ground is quick enough for the seven-year-old who was once a favourite for a Stayers Hurdle. Throw in that he has never been at his best here at Leopardstown, including this race last year, and he must opposed.

El Fabiolo - 11/26.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - returns late in the season following a hold, but he must rate one of the day's best bets if he is fit and well. He is rated nine pounds higher than Gaelic Warrior, holds a perfect 100% seasonal return record and is 2-2 at this track, scoring both times by wide margins.

He easily holds the best 2m form in the race, and JJ Slevin took the double-green job precisely to get rides like El Fabiolo.

Providing he is fit, and well, he should have too much speed for these rivals on all known time figures, and if not for the unknown, what has kept him off the track would be a considerably bigger staked selection.

Back El Fabiolo at 5/23.50 or bigger.

14:25 Musselburgh - Back Cadell @ 13/27.50 1pt

Lucinda Russell's Cadell - 13/27.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has long been on my mind for a stamina-sapping test like this Edinburgh National, and he makes loads of appeal now moving into handicaps against exposed rivals.

The novice was entirely outpaced in a hot Grade 2 at Sandown last time but did well considering the mistakes he made to stick in there for such a long time. His previous 15-length romp at Wetherby recorded a good speed figure, and he looks sure to improve on his hurdle form for the move to fences.

Unexposed and still improving, he gets a confident vote to land the spoils. Surrey Quest is the biggest threat, but the selection has scope from this rating of 132, and the yard has won this twice in the last four years.
Back the selection at 5/16.00 or bigger - he should be a clear favourite.

15:00 Musselburgh - Back Hamsiyann @ 5/23.50 1.5pt

Finally, Hamsiyann - 5/23.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - won with any amount in hand at Cheltenham 78 days ago, and he looks sure to relish this move up to 3m for the first time on that evidence accompanied by his staying flat form.

Interestingly, he turns up in this Pertemps Qualifier, but his rating is so low that he will certainly need a rise to get into the main event. With this now an obvious route, he will be primed to land this. Most of his rivals are handicapped to the hilt and will likely be looking to qualify, but the selection is open to further improvement. Lightly raced, has the flat speed to cope with this sharp track and will relish the step up in distance. There's plenty to like.

Doyen Quest will likely be given a cold ride and run into the frame. Back the selection at 5/23.50 or bigger.

P/L Update

Jan:
Advised Stakes = +28.18 ROI 45.46%
BSP returns = +11.1 ROI 17.92%
Ante-post returns = -1

Eleven winners in January brought a healthy return and good start to the year. The column staked 62pts compared to the Janury 2024's 87.5 (also ended around the same profit and ROI).
We made a loss of 16.16pts on hurdle races and a profit of 45.6pts on chase races and a small loss on the AW.
Saturday's continue to be excellent 119% ROI this month with Sunday and Tuesday yet to find a winner.

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