Cheltenham Festival Tips: A Betfair trader's view on five short-priced favourites

• Jonbon is worth taking on in Arkle

• Lay Shishkin in Ryanair at 1.9420/21

• Allegorie De Vassy a solid bet in Mares Chase

Lay Jonbon in the Arkle

There's not much between Jonbon and El Fabiolo in the betting and on the track on what we've seen.

But given El Fabiolo was ultra-impressive in Leopardstown when winning what was arguably the best 2m novice chase run in Ireland in a long time, he should be clear favourite in my eyes.

Jonbon has beat nothing of note this season (horses he has beaten this season 2-11 since finishing behind him) and although his jumping had been good on his first two chase starts, he wasn't so good in that department last time at Warwick in a two horse race.

For me it's a simple case that if El Fabiolo puts in a clear round of jumping in the Arkle Chase, he wins.

Move over Mesnil

This is purely from a pricing point of view as to why I'll be laying (or backing something else) in National Hunt Chase against Galliard Du Mesnil at 2.3811/8.

Outside of Mighty Potter last time at Leopardstown it looks a weak enough race and the fact he wasn't able to beat Adamantly Chosen and finish second that day leaves him looking very short here.

It will be a help that he's dropping back down in Grade to a Grade 2 contest here, but this is a race in which a lot of horses can be targeted towards all season as it's a real niche contest.

Between Ramillies, Churchstonewarrior, Mahler Mission etc. they look horses to me that will relish the marathon trip and are open to plenty of improvement whereas even though Galliard Du Mesnil is still only a 7yo, he may have reached his ceiling in terms of ability.

Another shock for Shishkin

If Shishkin puts in the run he put in at Ascot he's the most likely winner of the Ryanair but at around 1.9210/11, the market is basically telling us that he almost certainly will put that run in. For me, I'm not so certain.

In his two runs after beating Energumene he hasn't looked the same horse that we've seen before that win and although he was good when winning last time, it's only a 26 day gap between the two races and it'll be his second run off a second wind operation.

Although the opposition don't have the same back class that Shishkin has, they're still up to running very well/winning at Grade 1 level so he's not going to have it all his own way. At around 1.9420/21, I'll be laying Shishkin.

Lay Lossiemouth to Triumph

Again, Lossiemouth is another that I think is very short at her current price of around 2.915/8 in the Triumph Hurdle. She was clearly unlucky not to win last time but there's still a huge gap in the betting between her and her conqueror that day, Gala Marceau.

But having mentioned them two, my idea of the winner is Blood Destiny (one of my strongest fancies of the festival).

There has to be every chance stable jockey Paul Townend rides him over Lossiemouth given how impressive he was on his two Irish wins this season, plus the fact the form of them races have worked out very well (the cork win in particular).

With all of that being said, 6/4 Lossiemouth doesn't make any appeal to me at all and now would look the time to back Blood Destiny.

Allegorie to take all the beating

Although she had a scare early on at Thurles in what was just her second chase start, Allegorie De Vassy has shown huge amounts of ability so far in her career. She's a solid favourite in the Mares Chase.

She finished 19 lengths ahead of Brides Hill last time, that mare has franked the form since and with improvement to come in the jumping department with the more runs she has over fences, she will take a lot of beating here.

It looks a match on paper between her and the likeable Impervious, but when you look through the form of Impervious' wins this season, you can pick holes in it.

To conclude, I see Allegorie De Vassy going off clear favourite on the day and stamping herself as one of/if not the best Mares Chasers around.