Cheltenham Festival Tips: Rhys Williams has 40/1 & 25/1 bets in the County Hurdle

Rhys Williams
17 March 2023
2.30 min read

Our racing expert has two selections on Friday

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Our resident tipster has analysed Friday's racing and has two big-priced selections in the County Hurdle...

Fast pace should suit strong traveller
Unsuitable test last time
Pinkerton is overpriced in the County Hurdle

Returning to more suitable test

Cheltenham 14:10: Pinkerton 0.5pt e/w 25/1

Pinkerton was beaten at odds-on at Limerick last time but that was over 2m4f in a small field and having travelled well into the straight, he couldn't pick up late on.

Prior to that, Pinkerton had run well in two handicaps over 2m and 2m1f. In the first of those at Down Royal, he jumped to the front at 3 out and was still travelling strongly coming down the hill. Shaken up after 2 out, he jumped the last in front but made a slight mistake and couldn't quite hold off the challenges of Nibiru and Watch The Weather.

More patient tactics were used two starts ago at Fairyhouse in a race where Flaming Moon set a strong pace and went clear of the field. Pinkerton appeared to get in a bit close to 4 and 3 out before closing to be just in behind the leaders of the main pack approaching the home straight. He travelled very strongly on the run to 2 out and jumped that in a share of the lead with Merlin Giant but couldn't quite match that rival late on and was beaten 2½ lengths.

The manner in which he travelled in those two races makes me think he could be ideal for a race of this nature.

They will no doubt be looking to try to deliver him with a challenge as late as possible and he's only had six runs over hurdles so there could be more to come from him.

It might be that he's just a horse who travels strongly and doesn't find much for pressure but I think he's overpriced given the potential that he has and any 20/1 or bigger appeals.

Back Pinkerton in the 14:10 at Cheltenham 0.5pt e/w

25/1

Drop back in trip to suit

Cheltenham 14:10: Milkwood 0.5pt e/w 40/1

Milkwood finished third in this race two years ago off a 1lb lower mark than he races off today and I think he could run well despite the ground perhaps not being ideal.

There were some concerns that the ground had gone for him back in 2021 too but he showed that he's capable of running well on good to soft ground and it may not be far off that by the time of the race.

Since finishing second in the Galway Hurdle in 2021, Milkwood has only run in a race with more than eight runners on one occasion and that was in the Swinton last year where he was still travelling well in a closing sixth when coming down at 2 out.

I don't think small fields see him at his best as he likes to close late off a fast pace but he ran well this season in the Welsh Champion Hurdle off a 7lb higher mark than he races off today when finishing second.

The return to a big field and strongly-run race can bring improvement from Milkwood and this trip will be more suitable for him than what he raced over at Wetherby last time.

In an ideal world, he would want good ground but I think the market might have overplayed the concern over the ground and any 28/1 or bigger appeals.

Back Milkwood in the 14:10 at Cheltenham 0.5pt e/w

40/1