Cheltenham Festival Favourites: Rating the jollies in the five big races

• Thumbs-up or thumbs-down ratings for five key favourites

• Majborough and Teahupoo both very worthy favourites

• Jango Baie easily opposed at the top of the Gold Cup market

• Bet £10 get £10 every weekend up to Cheltenham

• We are now Non-Runner No Bet on all 28 Festival races

• Check out our 2026 Cheltenham Festival Mega Guide

• For the latest Betfair Racing odds click here

---

The New Lion - Champion Hurdle

Tuesday 10 March, 16:00
Live on ITV1 & ITVX

• Price at time of publication: 5/23.50
• NRNB Price: 9/43.25
• Trainer: Dan Skelton
• Age: 7yo
• Form: 1-1111-F1

From a 10-year trends perspective: 👍👍👍👍👍

The New Lion gets a maximum five thumbs-up rating when it comes to the trends of the last 10 winners as he he falls into the correct age category, is a last-time out winner, he's a winner of a Grade 1 hurdle, he'll have a starting price of 5/16.00 or shorter, and he's had fewer than 12 runs over hurdles.

In the last 10 years the Champion Hurdle has been won by either Irish-trained or Nicky Henderson-trained horses, but that's an easy trend to ignore when it comes to Dan Skelton as it's only in the last few years that he's become among the elite trainers in the national hunt game, 

Verdict: 👍

I tried desperately hard to give The New Lion a thumbs-down rating as my gut feeling is that he won't win. But when you look at the race in more detail you have to say that there's no reason he shouldn't win.

He remains unbeaten under rules when completing and was a good winner of the Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle - now called the Turners - last season. But he hasn't impressed this season, falling two out when coming under pressure in the Fighting Fifth before Christmas and then narrowly winning the Unibet Hurdle on trials day, where he finished less than two lengths ahead of the 138-rated Brentford Hope.

The bare form of those last two runs would likely see him struggle to win a top-class Champion Hurdle, but this year's renewal looks far from that, especially if, as I expect he will, Constitution Hill misses the race. If we think Lossiemouth could go to the Mares' Hurdle then that really only leaves Brighterdaysahead and last year's winner Golden Ace for The New Lion to beat.

So in summary, there's absolutely no reason why the Champion Hurdle favourite won't win, so on that basis I can't give him a thumbs-down rating, but in terms of confidence it's minimal for me. Brighterdaysahead has a very similar rating and also ticks all the trends boxes, and he'd probably be the one I want to back on the day.

But we have to give Constitution Hill a mention, because if he does turn up on the day then he will be favourite and I'd be giving him a five thumbs-up rating. Of course you'd have to be worried about his jumping, but people forget that he's successfully cleared more than 100 hurdles on a racecourse while fluffing his lines just three times.

I'm no expert when it comes to reasons why he might have fallen in three of his last four hurdle starts, and I'm inclined to put it down to just one of those things, so on that basis, if he runs in the Champion Hurdle I'd imagine he'll take the world of beating.

---

Majborough - Champion Chase

Wednesday 11 March, 16:00
Live on ITV1 & ITVX

• Price at time of publication: 13/82.63
• NRNB Price: 6/42.50
• Trainer: Willie Mullins
• Age: 6yo
• Form: 1-31-1131-231

From a 10-year trends perspective: 👍👍👍👍👍

Like The New Lion, Majborough gets the full five thumbs-up rating when it comes to trends of the last 10 winners, it's simply imossible to knock him. 

He's the right age, he's previously won over 2m1f or further, he's won a Grade 1 chase which came last time out and he'll be a single-figure price on the day. If you're looking for the perfect trends fit then Majborough is for you.

Verdict: 👍👍👍👍

I'm very strong on the chances of Majborough to win the Champion Chase, and he only fails to get the full five thumbs-up rating because of his tendency to put in a bad jump or two. In fact, the reason he didn't win last season's Arkle over course and distance was because of his poor jumping display on the day.

He commenced this season with another poor jumping display when beaten at odds-on in a Grade 2 chase at Cork, before being beaten as favourite again in a Grade 1 contest at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting. 

But Majborough bounced back to form in brilliant fashion at the Dublin Racing Festival earlier this month, thrashing his main Champion Chase market rival Marine Nationale by 19 lengths. That was by far his best jumping display of his career and a reproduction of that run will see him take the world of beating here. He's a confident choice.

---

Teahupoo - Stayers' Hurdle

Thursday 12 March, 15:20
Live on ITV1 & ITVX

• Price at time of publication: 15/82.88
• NRNB Price: 7/42.75
• Trainer: Gordon Elliott
• Age: 9yo
• Form: 1112-11196-1124-111-221-11

From a 10-year trends perspective: 👍👍👍👍

Not quite the full five thumbs-up treatment for Teahupoo as he fails on one of the key trends of the last 10 winners, his age!

Seven of the last 10 winners of the Stayers' Hurdle were aged six or seven-year-old, and a nine-year-old hasn't won this Grade 1 contest in any of the last 12 renewals. But he ticks every other box in terms of winning in the grade and at the trip, having Cheltenham Festival experience as well as plenty of experience over hurdles, and being Irish-trained.

Verdict: 👍👍👍👍👍

I really like the chances of Teahupoo to regain his Stayers' Hurdle crown so he gets the full five thumbs-up rating. The race looks to have a lot of depth to it, but you can pick holes in most of his opposition which leaves Gordon Elliott's nine-year-old as the rock solid antepost favourite.

As a then seven-year-old Teahupoo won the 2024 Stayers' Hurdle in fine style despite not having a run for nearly four months, which suggests he comes good at this time of the year, and that was evident again last year when he was beaten in a prep run but ran another excellent race at the Festival - finishing a narrow second to Bob Olinger in this very race - before winning at the Punchestown Festival in the spring.

So it bodes well that this year Teahupoo has had the perfect preparation, winning the Grade 1 Hatton's Grace Hurdle and then the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle where he easily got the better of last year's Stayers' Hurdle winner Bob Olinger. He's now rated 164, which is 2lb higher than when he won this race two years ago, and some 8lb higher than his main market rivals barring Bob Olinger, who is now an 11-year-old.

So even at nine-years-old Teahupoo appears to be better than ever, and as a previous winner of the race with plenty of experience over hurdles and at Cheltenham - something some of his market rivals fall short of - I think he's rock solid at the top of the market and easily the one they all have to beat.

---

Gaeilic Warrior - Ryanair Chase

Thursday 12 March, 16:00
Live on ITV1 & ITVX

• Price at time of publication: 7/42.75
• NRNB Price: 1/12.00
• Trainer: Willie Mullins
• Age: 8yo
• Form: 633-2-11121-11U12-2311-132

From a 10-year trends perspective: 👍👍👍👍👍

Like Majborough, Gaelic Warrior is another perfect fit when looking at the trends of the last 10 winners, ticking key boxes in terms of age, recent form, Cheltenham experience, official rating, and being trained by Willie Mullins.

But the big question mark with Gaelic Warrior is will he run in this race, or will he instead go for the Cheltenham Gold Cup? Should it be the latter, then stablemate Fact To File is likely to run in the Ryanair, for which he'll be favourite, and the good news is that he is also a perfect trends pick.

Verdict: 👍👍👍👍👍

The above five thumbs-up rating is for both Gaelic Warrior and Fact to File as it's almost certain that one of them will be in the Ryanair Chase and will start as a very strong favourite to win.

Having twice finished runner-up over hurdles at consecutive Cheltenham Festivals, Gaelic Warrior got his much-deserved win when romping to victory in the 2024 Arkle Chase, so we know he has plenty of experience at Cheltenham. He missed last year's Festival in favour of going to the Grand National meeting where he comfortably won the Grade 1 Aintree Bowl.

He started this season with a narrow win over Fact To File in the John Durkan before finishing a close-up third in the King George at Kempton over Christmas and then finishing runner-up to Fact To File in the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival earlier this month.

So, as you can see, there are a lot of form ties with Fact To File and whichever goes for this race would be some way clear on form of all the opposition barring Jonbon. But as we know, Nicky Henderson's star chaser has failed on his three previous attempts at the Cheltenham Festival, and out of his seven career defeats, five of them came on Cheltenham Racecourse. 

So Jonbon is easily overlooked - and especially as he's now 10-years-old so fails on one of the key trends for this race - in favour of last year's winner Fact To File or Gaelic Warrior. Your guess is as good as mine in terms of which one turns up in this race, but whoever it is should take all the beating with a clear round of jumping.

---

Jango Baie - Cheltenham Gold Cup

Friday 13 March, 16:00
Live on ITV1 & ITVX

• Price at time of publication: 5/16.00
• NRNB Price: 9/25.50
• Trainer: Nicky Henderson
• Age: 7yo
• Form: 2-11222-1213-14

Please Note: Fact To File is half a point shorter at 9/25.50 but given that he needs to be supplemented for the race and is likely to go for the Ryanair Chase, we're using Jango Baie as the favourite, which he is across many bookmakers.

From a 10-year trends perspective: 👎

Although Jango Baie fits a lot of the trends of the last 10 winners he fails on a crucial one, that he has never won over 3m or further. That has to be a huge negative.

And so too is that he failed to finish in the first three on his previous outing, and the fact that he has yet to win a Grade 1 chase out of novice company, and that he isn't Irish-trained (responsible for nine of the last 10 winners). It simply has to be a thumbs-down rating.

Verdict: 👎👎👎👎

I can't have Jango Baie winning this year's Cheltenham Gold Cup under any circumstances, I just can't see it happening. I'm very surprised that he's the favourite, although it's a wide open betting heat.

He's lost three of his last five races including being beaten by a then 144-rated Handstands last season (now rated 155, so still no world beater). He then scraped home over 2m in a far from vintage Arkle Chase 12 months ago, beating another 144-rated horse, Only By Night (now rated just 148), under a length. True, the very talented Majborough was back in third that day, but that was down to a terrible jumping display and it's a miracle that he finished so close up.

Another defeat followed in the Grade 1 Novices' Chase at Aintree to end his campaign and this season he's had just two runs, comfortably winning a Grade 2 Chase over 2m5f at Ascot before finishing unplaced in the King George at Christmas on Boxing Day.

He was beaten less than a length that day by three other Gold Cup contenders, The Jukebox Man, Banbridge and Gaelic Warrior, but he came to win his race two out and found very little on the run-in. That was over a flat 3m, so over an undulating 3m2f+ with an uphill finish, I just don't see Jango Baie winning this year's renewal at all. He'll struggle to reverse the form with some of the horses that finished ahead of him in the King George for starters.

It's a four thumbs-down rating for Jango Baie from me, and it would have been five but for him being the right age and being trained by a master of the game.

---

Bookmark our Cheltenham Festival Hub for more previews, tips and analysis

---