Cheltenham Festival Focus: Young legs prevail in the Stayers Hurdle creating 33/1 tip

• Daryl has breaking news on Thyme Hill

• Goes deep in analysing the Grade 1 Tolworth

• Offers up two ante-post plays including a 33/1 chance

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There was some good news this week. JP McManus brought So Scottish, our latest 16/1 selection for the Festival Plate. The prominent racing owner also got The Shunter before his excellent Cheltenham Festival win in the same race, so all systems are go on that front, and he is now the 6/1 favourite.

Thyme Hill straight to Cheltenham - That email!

Elsewhere, I spoke to Philip Hobbs at Wincanton on Saturday, deliberately going to apologise for sending him an email pleading not to go to Ascot in February with Thyme Hill (deep stats included).

However, the email seems to have done the trick as he said he found it "very interesting" and the email is "part of the decision" to go straight to the Cheltenham Festival after showing it to his owner, so he thanked me!

As you have read above, there was little action to recap this week after the Christmas bonanza. The Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle won by Paul Nicholls' Tahmuras is where we should start.

Tolworth lacked Festival quality

The exceptional Constitution Hill won the race last year, so naturally, people will warm to the victor of this contest regardless when looking for the Supreme Novice Hurdle winner at Cheltenham.

The Betfair Sportsbook cut Paul Nicholls' Tahmuras into 10/1 for the opening event in March. However, he went down in my estimations despite eventually running out a comfortable 2 1/2 length winner over his old bumper rival L'Astroboy.

The form

I said beforehand that this race would have little bearing on the Supreme Novice Hurdle - note that this was after the ante-post 6/4 favourite Luccia had come out of the race with a bad scope - and I would be even more confident after the event.

The market corrected itself before the off, sending Authorised Speed off at a well-backed 5/4.

Still, he folded like an old deck chair as the well-grouped field approached the three-furlong pole, and it has come out that he scoped badly after the race.

He wasn't even in the same stratosphere as his previous running, and it may have been that his December visit in deep Sandown turf had left a mark, but it's easily forgiven.

The second favourite Artic Bresil pulled up and is now another Henry De Bromhead runner that has flopped when coming over this side of the water (Envoi Allen, A Plus Tard, Minella Indo, just a few to mention in recent times).

However, there's a good chance Arctic Bresil was overestimated on his Cork Maiden victory, having seen the third, fourth, sixth and tenth all beaten well out of sight next time (the fifth was being handicapped).

The fact that he had Nigel Twiston-Davies' Master Chewy (126) was just 3/4 of a length behind when beaten in a point-to-point suggests he was shooting too high in a Grade 1 contest either way. FYI the third in that Point to Point (fav and beaten four lengths) was trounced by 14 lengths in a canter by Facile Vega at Fairyhouse.

L'Astroboy had beaten Tahmuras in a bumper at Chepstow, but the Nicholls' horse had shown significant signs in that race that he would improve a good deal for the first outing on a racecourse and 245 days.

He was rawer than the winner, who held him cosily through a dash of speed. Should Authorized Speed underperform, it made sense for this pair to finish close together at the head of the result. Still, only six lengths covered the first four horses, which is alarming for this form line.

Nemean Lion finished third, beaten just three lengths here. A horse of Kerry Lee's that had been well held by the now 130-rated Hullnback of Fergal O'Brien's previously at Haydock, who in turn was trounced five lengths by the 130-rated Pikar of Dan Skelton (well beaten at Newbury in a handicap off 130).

Colonel Harry finished in fourth, beaten just six lengths, despite jumping violently out to his left on this right-handed track.

His win at this course on his previous start saw the meeting abandoned immediately after as the conditions became treacherous. He also beat very little that day, but he wants much further than this 2m trip, and he is yet to record form in the 130s.

This was a Grade 1 contest in name only. I will put this in a highlight box just to make it abundantly clear.

The winner, Tahmuras, is undoubtedly a nice horse, and I have liked him for a while but not with a view to Cheltenham, and he showed his hand here. He travelled exceptionally well through the contest and came back on the bridle after a small error two out, but it was short-lived. He clattered the last, looking like a tired horse, before hanging left twice as he clung on at the finish line all out.

The official handicapper rated him 134 before this, which looks about right. Still, given the status of the race, expect a rise despite it not being warranted on all known form. None of his rivals (other than Authorised Speed) has or had run close to the mid-130s in any of their starts - any more than 142 would look absurd, but that's what I am expecting.

The clock

With rain falling and the ground deteriorating on the hurdles track, there is only one race we can compare the times.

Hardy Du Seuil's handicap victory (the following race and final on the hurdle track) off of a rating of 124 makes for interesting reading into how the Tolworth was run, and it's wise to remember that his handicap race would have been disadvantaged due to the ground.

The circuit times for Tahmuras and Hardy Du Seuil are below, along with their three-out-to-finish times.

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Tahmuras (134 midfield) circuit time = 3.35.75
Hardy Du Seuil (124 midfield) circuit time = 3.38.34

Tahmuras 3-F = 1.35.35
Hardy Du Seuil 3-F = 1.32.37

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These times tell us that the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle went harder than the handicap early, but it doesn't tell us that they went too hard.

There was this confusion with many people attempting to time analyse the Challow last week using a slowly run handicap on the card for comparison - they are wrong!!!

Interestingly the Grade 1 field got to three out 23 lengths ahead of the following handicap, but there were only around one and a half lengths separating the entire Grade 1 field, who almost jumped in unison.

This 23-length handicap deficit may have been down to the deteriorating ground or that the handicap race just went a slower early tempo with the long absent Palladium getting a soft lead (likely a combination of both).

We know they haven't gone too hard in the Grade 1 contest, given the leader jumped left and was only beaten six lengths and how the entire field was in close quarters until the second last.

Hardy Du Seuil came home nearly 12 lengths faster than Tahmuras from three out to the finish line - very interesting considering how well the Tolworth winner travelled through his race - and this is why he has gone down in my estimations.

The verdict

Tahmuras has shown his vulnerability here with a slow finishing time off an average pace, again highlighted by two lengths separating four runners at the second last and six at the finish. These comparisons could be used to ill effect (as they were for the Challow by many mainstream media) if the entirety of this Grade 1 field is not taken into context.

In my opinion, this is, at best, a 140-rated performance from Tahmuras, but I would even be more conservative and say 137.

Using the higher band of 140 as the rating of this race would still leave the winner around 12lbs to find with the average rating of a Supreme Novice winner in the last ten years. The race recorded an RPR of 144 (too high in my opinion), but it was still the lowest in the last ten years.

Constitution Hill (148), Labaik (144) and Champagne Fever (148) are the only winners of the Supreme Novice Hurdle going in rated lower than 150 in the last ten years.

I can't see what beats Facile Vega from this side of the water, as it's a below-par year for 2m Novice Hurdlers at this stage by comparison to previous years.

The bubble burst for Grangeclare West in Lawlors Of Naas

Grangeclare West drifted alarmingly in the closing stages of the market from 5/4 out to 5/2 before going off at 2/1. He was well beaten and ran like something was a miss having travelled in a pocket on the rail, but when the gap came, he couldn't go through it.

Interestingly this was his first start having not come off the back of a break, and he may have bounced, but it was an alarming performance, and although I have not written him off entirely, it looks like a long way back for him from that, and he is 14/1 for the Ballymore.

*Grangeclare West was found to be coughing post-race.

In turn, Champ Kiely made all of the runnings and hit the line pretty hard to bounce back and reverse form with Irish Point from their meeting in the Royal Bond.

It certainly was not Champ Kiely's true running in the Royal Bond, but he was much better here and a worthy winner. He could easily go to the Ballymore 7/1 now, but does the seven-year-old have the class for that race? In a normal year, probably not, but the Novice Hurdle divisions look thin on the ground with no stand-out.

Facile Vega, Marine Nationale, Hermes Allen, Gaelic Warrior (yet to go right-handed and in at Clonmel on Thursday), and Champ Kiely are the three topping the tree in my book.

We have backed Champ Kiely for the Albert Bartlett, for which he is still 16/1. It's not entirely out of the question he should go for the three-mile race. He came through the line well here, and plenty of winners of this have gone to the potato event.

Still, connections keep mentioning his speed, which is concerning. Still, ultimately, this will be a Willie Mullins last-minute decision, and I suspect a lot relies on Gaelic Warrior.

Bo Zenith bombs out at Sandown

Gary Moore's Bo Zenith was pushed out to 66/1 on the Betfair Sportsbook for the Triumph Hurdle from 16/1 after a disappointing British debut at Sandown on Saturday.

It was very strange that so many people thought Bo Zenith must be very good because he beat Blood Destiny in France when in fact, the latter was clearly the eye-catcher and went to powerhouse stable Mullins manor. Those same people will now hold Blood Destiny in court because of the result of Bo Zenith. People confuse me.

Appreciate It will probably stay at 2m

We learned very little about Appreciate It on Sunday at Naas. He won his second Novice Chase, but that's all you can say. He jumped well and cantered around. He has campaigned over 2m for much of his career, and I don't see why he would go up in distance for the Turners Novices' Chase despite many calling for it. He is now 11/2 for the Arkle and 6/1 for the Turners.

Tellmesomethinggirl back over hurdles despite victory?

I'm afraid it's more bad news for our ante-post selections as connections of Tellmesomethinggirl have suggested a possible return to hurdles after jumping poorly in her victory at Naas.

It was a poor round of jumping, but despite this, she capitalised on her only real rival Instit's poor final flight effort. Instit had previously been beaten 21 lengths by Impervious.

That's not good enough form to win the Mares Chase, but she deserves plenty of credit for jumping that badly and still being able to win. She has an engine, that's for sure. She is 14/1 for the Mares Hurdle and 16/1 for the Mares Chase.

Back 33/1 chance Meet And Greet for Stayers upset

A horse that continues to catch my eye for the wide-open Stayers Hurdle is Meet And Greet at a whopping 33/1. That's a huge price considering this unexposed seven-year-old fits plenty of stats and trends, including the right age bracket. His price makes little sense on his recent form, but his back form also suggests he could be worth a play.

Meet And Greet had one bumper run before being tried in a Maiden Hurdle but was then switched back to bumpers for a further six outings. One of those is particularly eye-catching.

He chased home Blazing Khal and Noble Yeats to be beaten just five lengths at Limerick in 2020 and then notched a victory over Top Bandit (134) before a couple of below-par efforts.

He was sent over hurdles in November 2021. He gained a deserved victory at Naas over 2m before stepping immediately into Grade 2 company and getting within two lengths of Flame Bearer (149) over the same course and distance. He didn't have the speed to contend with that rival, but it was an excellent effort stepping from Maiden company into a graded race, and he stayed on powerfully.

Connections clearly think a bit of him. They threw him in the deep end when contesting a Grade 1 at Punchestown back in April, where he was beaten six lengths by Albert Bartlett winner and runner-up, The Nice Guy and Minella Cocooner on his first run beyond 2m.

He left a below-par seasonal return behind him when going down narrowly to Home By The Lee 6/1 when a staying on third in the Grade 1 Jack De Bromhead Christmas Hurdle when he shaped as though a stiffer test would suit and he was not favourably positioned.

A stiffer test will await at Cheltenham, and a Championship pace in Britain with a stiff finish looks just up his street. He has improved leaps and bounds quickly (only had seven hurdle starts), and this race tends to go to younger legs on the upgrade. He has only had two outings over this distance - both in Grade 1 company - and there could be stacks more to come.

The Irish handicapper has adjusted his rating from 142 to 150, and British tax is due to be added, so it's highly likely he will be too high for any handicap.

He lacks course experience, but you're not going to have everything in your favour at this price. He looks worth chancing at big odds in a market that is crying out for an improving horse.

The Stayers Hurdle entries are out on Tuesday, so we are taking a small risk.

It's time to get Mighty with Potter

One of the best-valued horses in the Cheltenham ante-post market is Mighty Potter 7/2 for the Turner's Novices Chase. We already have Banbridge in this division, and I expect him to run well, but he is ground dependent and how Mighty Potter is not a 5/2 or shorter chance is beyond me.

He has been no bigger than around 9/1 since September, but he has since won two chase races, including the Grade 1 Drinmore Novices' Chase and has recorded the joint highest RPR of any Novice Chaser this season on par with Jonbon (164), who is an 11/8 chance in the Arkle.

Mighty Potter, a current 7/2 chance on the Betfair Sportsbook, looks good value with the market making too much of his Cheltenham Supreme Novice Hurdle flop.

He has clear and viable excuses for that run, with a shuddering error four out costing him any chance of getting into contention and was reported to be lame after this. He did run into the rail before the race also, and he was very immature as a Novice Hurdler.

He was one of the few novice hurdlers expected to make up into a better chaser, and he is now a three-time Grade 1 winner and unbeaten in this sphere.

The fact that Willie Mullins has five of the next six in the betting - four of which have alternative engagements while Jonbon and Gerri Colombe follow them in the market and are odds on not to come here, this could prove a small field.

He looks like the right bet to bring in as a captain, and while his jumping is not flawless, this may turn out to be a weak division. In the hope that this bet leaves us in an excellent position with Bandbrige and Mighty Potter at the head of a small field, it makes sense to play him now before a possible run at Punchestown later this month. He is also only a 4.03/1 chance on the Betfair Exchange.

The recent loss of jockey Jack Kennedy after a suspected broken leg at Naas on Sunday is a blow, but this is a class-act and he is the wrong price.