Cheltenham Festival Focus: Winners in waiting as Dublin delivers

• Daryl is very happy with the outcome of the DRF

• Says ignore nonsensical time tweets with no context

• Backs two more horses for Cheltenham

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Let's get stuck straight into the Dublin Racing Festival review. I have already seen some nonsense on Twitter regarding race times with absolutely zero context, and I implore you to take those you read with minimum characters with a pinch of salt. We will get into this in more depth today.

Cheltenham Festival Focus followers should have a spring in their step this week after some very positive results for the column, and it's time to stick up a clutch of horses to bolster our selections.

Good Land a live player in Ballymore

The festival kicked off with Barry Connells's Good Land, who ran out an impressive winner of the Nathaniel Lacy Grade 1 over 2m6f and was cut into 9/2 for the Ballymore Novice Hurdle. Very fair!

He jumped impeccably, travelled strongly and, in all honesty, looked a class above the rivals from the outset. Typically a strong race with a view to either the Ballymore or the Albert Bartlett.

He was robust at the finish here, but he won this race in the mid-section and showed a bright turn of foot to hit the front after the second last, easily quickening away from slower and likely Albert Bartlett-bound rivals.

His entire contest was truly run, and he has real live claims in a Ballymore having shown a bright turn of speed.

The pre-race thoughts were that he is the fastest horse in the race, and I felt he was up against Albert Bartlett horses rather than your typically classy Ballymore ones.

His sectionals almost confirm the Ballymore is the correct race for him, and he was stronger than any other runner from the second last to the line.

Interestingly, his jockey only went for him after the last, nursing him down to the final flight under hand and heels while his counterparts all pushed and shoved away.

I felt he was better than the winning margin suggests here.

My concerns are his longevity and the overall look of this particular form - the rest has worked out really well. According to reports, he injured his sesamoid after his debut, and that type of injury is usually career-ending.

I was less impressed with Sandor Clegane's previous win, a slowly run event. Absolute Notions was no match for Inthepocket, who was subsequently put in his place by Il Etait Temps the following day.

At the same time, Deep Cave was too close for comfort, and Cool Survivor had been easily brushed aside by Hiddenvalley Lake (we will get to him shortly).

The Racing Post Handicapper gave this a 141, the joint second-lowest in the last 10 years.

My gut feeling is that he is a brilliant horse but not the Ballymore winner, although I have been wrong before. I was tempted to put him in this column before the Dublin Racing Festival. I am glad I waited.

Loosiemouth's defeat was unlucky

Triumph Hurdle favourite Lossiemouth came unstuck when downed by stablemate Gala Marceau, who had first run on her Frank Knight conquerer this time.

This was an interesting race. They went very hard over the first three flights before gradually slowing the pace down in the mid-section before sprinting over the final two hurdles.

The winner Gala Marceau was very keen again. Despite the frantic early pace, she didn't settle and was still tugging for her head at the halfway stage as she jumped left into the path of Lossiemouth.

Despite her exuberance, her finishing effort from two out was quite taking, and she matched the speed of Lossiemouth in that section of the race. She deserves an upgrade, and in turn, so does Lossiemouth.

I am unsure what Paul Townend was thinking this entire weekend, let alone in this contest.

He buried favourite Lossiemouth away on the inside rail, finding unnecessary trouble when following an inferior horse in owner mate Jourdefete. It was baffling, considering Lossiemouth only had to do what she did in the Frank Knight to win, and keeping her wide and out of trouble would have been the sensible thing to do, surely.

We discovered that Lossiemouth is not unbeatable, though, and she was surprisingly eased in the Triumph Hurdle market to 7/4 with Gala Marceau into 9/2. All in all, a good result with the dream still alive on Blood Destiny, who is now 3/1, but these are two very good mares.

Hood key to Handicap winner in waiting Tekao

This Spring Juvenile was run at a good clip with an overall circuit time quicker than Gaelic Warrior and on par with a (slowly run) Grade 1 Irish Champion Hurdle on Sunday.

Tekao was a big eye-catcher and offered plenty of promise for the Boodles Juvenile Handicap, for which he is currently the favourite at 6/1, but I am willing to argue that he should be half that.

He jumped his way into contention down the back straight with some slick Champion Hurdle-style jumping and effortlessly moved into the lead around the home turn. It was fascinating that his jockey Mark Walsh only rode with hand and heels until Lossiemouth passed him on the final flight.

Had he gone for everything on the turn for home as Danny Mullins did on the winner, he would have finished far closer to the front pair and, if playing with a straight bat, would have had little trouble fitting into a Grade 1 Triumph Hurdle.

Mark Walsh has done backers little favours as the Irish Handicapper has given him a six pounds rise to 127, including British tax of (guestimate six pounds), a handicap rating of 133, but that shouldn't be beyond him in what is an average year.

The other interesting angle with him is the fitting of the hood. Willie Mullins has an excellent strike rate when this is removed. Recently we have seen, Echoes In Rain and El Fabiolo, amongst many more.

Tekao wore a hood at Leopardstown. I suspect that will come off come March. He is rapidly improving, and 6/1 is more than fair.

El Fabiolo should be the clear Arkle fav!

El Fabiolo, thankfully for followers, had a coming of age when destroying his field in the Irish Arkle and is now a 15/8 chance behind Jonbon for Cheltenham's Arkle Chase.

This was mightily impressive. Dysart Dynamo set a blistering gallop on the front end, and Daryl Jacob left no hiding place for El Fabiolo as he sat just off the leader.

He was sticky at one or two, particularly when his rider asked him to come up for one at five out and then four out when he made a bad mistake. However, on the very next flight (three-out), he had learnt from it and was foot perfect and, more importantly, excellent when left to his own devices.

He jumped so well at the second last that it took him into the lead past the faltering (but foot-perfect) Dysart Dynamo, who was running on fumes.

He tanked through this race, and despite his handful of jumping errors, he ran out a ready winner in an excellent time, impressing with his finishing effort.

This is now the strongest piece of 2m Novice Chase form anywhere in the land. He was enthusiastic and relished a blistering pace. The calls for this horse to go to the Turners are long gone, and his high cruising speed will make him a worthy challenger to Jonbon, who will have to be very good to beat him.

He has a good brain, and the jumping improves with each run. I like that in Novice Chaser. In most cases, it means there is a significant improvement to come. We know his engine can at least match Jonbon from his hurdles run at Aintree, which came in a hood. The hood is now off, and he is thriving.

I have him as the Arkle winner and he should be a clear favourite on this evidence.

Appreciate It showed that age might be catching up with him, and he is to slow for an Arkle. Dysart Dynamo is still yet to finish out a race strongly, while Banbridge's finishing effort showed he would be seen to best effect in a Turner's 11/2 - another result for the column.

Galopin is still the one to beat for gold

Galopin Des Champs was impressive when landing the Irish Gold Cup over stablemate Stattler despite this being a slowly run affair where stamina was not tested to the maximum.

A sterner stamina test awaits at Cheltenham, but he came up the Leopardstown hill quickly and had plenty left in the tank. There are few horses that fly past me at the track where I think, my goodness, that's good. He was one of three this weekend (El Fabiolo and Mighty Potter).

His jumping under pressure was my big concern before the race, but he put that to bed and was an authoritative winner. The form looks good, with Stattler finishing in second, and Fury Road is a very good horse on his day, in third.

It must be said, though, there is little depth to the 3m form in Ireland, but the two improving horses filled the first two placings here, which bodes well.

Kemboy continues trying to dictate slowly run races and is a pain more than anything in these contests. It is in the back of my mind the excellent time figure Galopin Des Champs did at this meeting last year when quicker than the 2m Grade 1 on the card when running over 2m5f, and for those wanting to take him on, this should give you optimism.

I am still on the fence about him. I like him a lot more after this weekend, but there are niggling doubts about one so short in the market. He is now a 7/4 chance for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. We will revisit this.

As for our selection Stattler, he needs a real stamina test, and he is one that will be seen to better effect in the Gold Cup. He remains a live each-way player.

Mighty Potter works his magic

Our captain Mighty Potter was electric when winning the 2m5f Ladbroke Novices Chase, and the three contest winners before him have all gone on to festival victory. He will likely follow in those hoofprints after a facile success here and is now 5/4 for the Turners Chase, his intended target.

The time of the race was not one to go shouting about, but the fact that he travelled and jumped so smoothly at every fence he was being reigned back by Davy Russell, always wanting to go half a yard quicker, is a big positive.

He took up the running a fraction too early, but his rider had little choice with the engine he had bubbling underneath him, and the most impressive part about this victory was his finishing effort after the last.

Once jumping the final flight, his overdrive kicked in, and he booted clear.

This horse was always destined to be better over fences and is doing just that. He recorded an RPR of 161 - three pounds shy of his victory at Fairyhouse, but he is miles clear of anything else in this division and those at 3m.

Many have concerns about his Supreme Novice Hurdle run, but I plead with you to watch that back and see how he handles the track and the downhill run.

It was no issue for him, and it was a bad mistake at a hurdle that saw him pull up. The track will pose no problem, and this race will cut up significantly. There is very little of note in here, and this is an improving horse, highlighted by his jumping from one start to the next. He will take plenty of stopping at Cheltenham.

Blue bombs out again

Blue Lord bombed out at odds of 2/7f when turned over by the front-running Gentleman De Mee who has now beaten both Blue Lord and Edwardstone in the 2m division.

This was a flat run by Blue Lord, but the proximity of Sceau Royal (three lengths) is alarming, and he is not one to fully trust. He looked like a picture going down to the start, and this was an almost identical time to his romp here at Xmas (from the winner).

Blue Lord is now a 12/1 chance for the Champion Chase. However, I don't think he acts too well at Cheltenham, and the calls for him to go to the Ryanair are nonsense, also having never shown the stamina for the further trip.

Gentleman De Me now throws a spanner in the works for the Champion Chase. He is another front-runner that may scupper the chances for Editeur Du Gite and Energumene should they be more forward going with the latter. This could set up well for Edwardstone.

State Man dictates a slowly run Irish Champion

The time comparisons you may have seen on Twitter, which compare the Novice Hurdle to the Irish Champion, are out of context.

You only compare races if you know what the comparable race has or has not achieved. In this case, blindly using the Irish Champion Hurdle as a guide against any other race without knowing the overall picture is a fast way to the poor house.

State Man dictated a slowly run race in the Irish Champion Hurdle with a sprint finish. We know this because of the comparisons of the entirety of the Dublin Racing Festival meeting.

Here are all the final circuit sectionals from all races. (+ is slower than State Man, and - is quicker than State Man)

State Man (2m) (Day 2)

36.85
51.56
1.39.09
1.50.41
2.03.57
2.18.63
2.51.94
3.21.04
3.34.22

3-F = 1.15.59 (Sprint finish)

Facile Vega (2m) (Day 2)

35.12 ( -1.73)
49.62 ( -1.94)
1.35.43 ( -3.66)
1.46.71 ( -3.70)
2.00.46 (-3.11)
2.14.71 ( -3.92)
2.48.83 (omitted outside -1) (-3.11)
3.21.74 (+0.70)
3.37.86 (3.36.86) (+2.64)

3 -F = 1.22.15 (slow)

Ballybawn Belter (2m 104 rated) Day 2

The first bracket column compared to State Man and the second to Facile Vega.

35.09 (-1.76) (-0.03)
50.13 (-1.43) (+0.51)
1.38.03 ( -1.06) (+2.60)
1.50.06 ( -0.35) (+3.35)
2.03.47 ( -0.10) (+3.01)
2.18.22 ( -0.41) (+3.51)
2.53.13 (omitted, outside - 1) (+1.19) (+4.30)
3.22.97 (+1.93) (+1.23)
3.36.28 (3.35.28) (+1.06) (-1.58)

3-F =1.17.06

Here, Facile Vega went far too hard compared to the Irish Champion Hurdle. But using that race alone is not the best guide as the 104-rated handicap hurdler also went off quicker than State Man.

Ballybawn Belter was ahead of the Irish Champion Hurdle until the second-last flight.

This, as well as other data, confirms that State Man dictated a slowly run race. He is now a very short 3/1 for the Champion Hurdle, and Honeysuckle may have been worth a small upgrade with this speed test probably not ideal.

She would fair better at Cheltenham and is 25/1 (although it looks like they will not go there). Vauban also had little chance when held up at the rear of the field, and the close proximity of Pied Piper (six lengths) and Zanahiyr (eight lengths) now makes sense.

Il Etait Temps is not getting credit he deserves

We also see here that Facile Vega is a peak 3.51 secs ahead of the handicap winner (who raced in third), which equates to 14 lengths.

That is not unusual for a 150-rated hurdler to be 14 lengths ahead of a 104-rated handicapper, but it's not ideal during this part of the race.

After the first two flights, Facile Vega would have been just two lengths ahead of Ballybawn Belter but then got racing at the third, extending his lead over the handicap winner (raced in third) very quickly to 10 lengths and then 13 lengths before reaching that peak period at three out.

He has done far too much in the mid-section of the race.

However, there's more to this than just going off too hard, especially if we compare the winner Il Etait Temps' sectionals.

Facile Vega

35.12
49.62
1.35.43
1.46.71
2.00.46
2.14.71
2.48.83 (omitted outside -1)
3.21.74
3.37.86 (3.36.86)

3-F = 1.22.15

Il Etait Temps

(brackets indicate faster or slower than Facile Vega - is quicker +is slower)

35.07 (-0.05)
50.23 (+0.61)
1.36.48 (+1.05)
1.47.76 (+1.05)
2.00.83 (+0.37)
2.15.05 (+0.34)
2.49.05 (omitted outside -1) (+0.22)
3.19.34 (-2.40)
3.33.22 (3.32.22) (-4.64)

3-F = 1.17.17

Il Etait Temps's maximum distance behind Facile Vega at a peak was around four lengths, yet the winner finished much quicker as Facile Vega stopped quickly.

The fact that Il Etait Temps was not dropped out and a mile off of the pacesetter must be an upgrade for the winner and muddies the waters on Facile Vega.

If we go back to Xmas, where Facile Vega comfortably held the winner, we see that Il Etait Temps loomed up on him around the home bend. The stark difference, however, was not only the ground but the way Facile Vega controlled the race during the mid-section. He didn't do that this time and paid for it.

However, Il Etait Temps still produced the best circuit time and the second fastest finishing effort behind State Man across the two days at the DRF, which could easily be an improvement from the five-year-old using the evidence of the Xmas race.

He was far too keen as a Juvenile last season, and the addition of the hood has helped, although he was still very free in the early stages of this race, which gives him another markup on the performance.

He is a genuine contender for the Supreme Novice Hurdle and has course experience, having run in the Triumph Hurdle last season. He is a very fair 5/1 chance, having recorded an RPR of 158. That would have won three of the last 10 Supreme Novices and was better than any other winner in the last decade.

Returning to Facile Vega, there's little doubt now that connections will attempt to drop him in and ride him as they did in the Champion Bumper last season when getting plenty of cover.

He is better than this - how much is the question? He stopped far too early and too quickly for this to be his true running, although the comparative sectionals with the winner suggest it might be.

Still, his tendency to be free-going is a concern come March, having taken up the lead at Xmas by jumping his way to the front.

My gut tells me that this was not his true running, and it may be a huge overreaction by the bookmakers to push him out to 4/1, having stopped as quickly as he did. The waters are murky with him, and there is no rush to back him just yet but the winner is firmly on the radar now.

Gaelic Warrior has no chance in a Novice event at Cheltenham

Il Etait Temps's finishing effort from three out to the line recorded a time of 1.17.17, much faster than Gaelic Warrior, and the latter circuit time was also far slower, with a peak high 33 lengths behind at the second to last flight.

Gaelic Warrior (2m) Day 2

36.41 (-0.44)
52.10 ( +0.54)
1.39.98 ( +0.89)
1.51.85 (+1.44)
2.05.35 ( +1.78)
2.21.68 (+3.05)
2.57.30 (omitted, straight through +1) (+5.36)
3.25.90 (+4.86)
3.39.62 (3.40.62) (+6.40)

3-F = 1.18.94

Gaelic Warrior was very slow and continuously out to the right. I couldn't have him for any race at the festival. He is as short as 6/1 for the Supreme Novice Hurdle (no chance) and 5/1 for the Ballymore, which would look the better route on this evidence.

Good Land (2m6f)

(DAY 1 Different Placement of hurdles)

36.62
51.15
1.38.15
1.49.24
2.15.67
2.51.07
3.21.45
3.36.33

Gala Marceau (2m)

(DAY 1 Different placement of hurdles)

34.75
49.59
1.36.87
1.48.15
2.15.34
2.52.69
3.21.22
3.34.94

Gerri doesn't get me all hot and sweaty

It's been a long time coming, and the market has always been no more than lukewarm on Gerri Colombe's chances in the Brown Advisory despite an unblemished record, but he is now a 3/1 favourite. Still, on Saturday, he advertised his claims with a hard-fought victory in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles at Sandown.

This was hard work for Gordon Elliott's runner having to be pushed all out to fend off Balco Coastal, who had previously won a soft ground Kempton handicap by treading the best of the surface on the outside of the field off of 138.

Thunder Rock doesn't jump well enough to be considered a Grade 1 horse, and this track certainly didn't play to his strengths.

It was hard work for the new Brown Advisory favourite, who hung right in the closing stages under pressure. On the positive side, he jumps superbly and finds plenty for pressure.

His campaigning has been interesting. Opting for England for a Grade 1 rather than Ireland, although keeping him and Mighty Potter apart may have been the angle here. Still, he has been kept right-handed, which is a concern, and quick ground wouldn't be ideal. He has enough negatives now for one at such a price.

Interestingly the runner-up, Balco Coastal, was beaten by Gentlemansgame 20/1 in a point-to-point, and I Am Maximus gave that ones form a boost by running well behind Mighty Potter.

On the same card, Third Time Lucki won the Dolos Handicap and has gone up six pounds in the handicap to 149, having been dropped after his Warwick display.

The handicapper has made a quick u-turn there, and that Haddex Des Obeaux form looks pretty strong. Still, Third Time Lucki doesn't look as well-handicapped for the Grand Annual as he did a week ago 10/1.

Back Hiddenvalley Lake for Bartlett

One of the divisions blown apart to a degree this weekend was the 3m Novice Hurdle division, with little of note throwing down a claim from the 2m6f Nathaniel Lacy won by Good Land.

The big eye-catcher was Cool Survivor, who finished fourth, beaten (a staying on) four lengths to give the form of Hiddenvalley Lake a nice boost.

Hiddenvalley Lake is a horse that really impressed me with his victory at Cork, beating the above-mentioned by eight lengths and scampering away at the finish, and he looks the one to be on for the Albert Bartlett. He is due to run in the next 10 days, so now looks like the time to strike.

He is completely unexposed, and his improvement from Naas to Cork was significant. I like his claims, and he is another - similar to Mighty Potter - who should be a clear favourite for this contest.