The third day of the Cheltenham Festival has been something of the poor relation of the meeting since it was extended to four days, but it tends to be an attractive betting card for those who like to have a crack at big-field handicaps.
That is again the case this year and two of my main handicap fancies of the week run on Thursday.
Big run from Winter Fog would be no surprise
The first race of interest of the day is the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (14:10). The Emmet Mullins-trained Winter Fog wouldn't be amongst the sneakier contenders for what is a race that can reward sneaky campaigning, but there is a very strong case to be made for him.
The eight-year-old was formerly trained by Daniel Murphy to win a maiden hurdle at Limerick in good style last April. He joined his current connections over the summer and was always going to be an interesting stable switcher, as Emmet Mullins has shown a notable ability to improve horses that he takes on from other trainers. The Shunter has been a high-profile example.
Winter Fog's first and only run for Mullins came in the Pertemps Qualifier at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting. Initially put in at a big price, he was well backed close to the off. Held up after making a mistake at the first flight, he perhaps surprised his rider with how quickly he worked his way into contention, as he made smooth headway to track the leaders at the third-last flight and hit the front at the penultimate obstacle.
It's a long way home from there at Leopardstown and it wasn't a surprise that he was picked off late by Panda Boy, but it was a run full of promise. Had he been ridden with more patience, he would most likely have won.
While the British handicapper hasn't missed him, putting him in 7lb higher than his Irish mark, Winter Fog has the potential to be significantly better than he was able to show at Leopardstown.
A more patient ride will suit him very well and a big run from him would not surprise.
Harvey and Ain't That A Shame should be up for the task
The other one that I like is the Henry De Bromhead-trained Ain't That A Shame in the Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockey's Handicap Chase.
The eight-year-old is an unexposed chaser and has an appealing profile for a race of this nature. He wasn't beaten far by some of the best novice chasers around in his first two starts over fences, namely Stattler and Galopin Des Champs, but it was his latest start that caught the eye the most.
Stepped up to three miles for a maiden chase at Navan, he looked to have the race wrapped up approaching the third-last fence, but that is an awful long way from home at Navan and he got run down late by Champagne Platinum. There was no shame in that, as that rival came out and ran very well to finish second in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown, but there is little doubt that Ain't That A Shame should have won.
This will be the first time that Ain't That A Shame has run in a race with lots of pace and cover available to him, which should very much suit him and might well bring about notable improvement.
The importance of having a high-class amateur rider on your side in this race should be obvious, as the gap between the best amateur riders and the average ones is a gaping one. Thus, having the services of a top amateur is a notable advantage.
Ain't That A Shame is set to be ridden by Ben Harvey, who isn't one of the biggest names in the Irish amateur ranks, but might well be in a few years. He rode Bob Olinger to win a point-to-point and has an unbeaten record when riding in Britain, having ridden two winners from two outings including on Some Neck on the cross-country course at Cheltenham. He will be equal to the task if Ain't That A Shame is.