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Alan Dudman picks out four horses for an antepost Lucky Fifteen
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Be Aware the number one selection for the Coral Cup
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Gifford stayer still miles ahead of handicap mark for NH Chase
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The frequent laments of Langer Dan's handicap mark for the Coral Cup will be no more, as the two-time winner has bigger fish to fry at the Festival but Dan Skelton's Be Aware has been high on my list for this handicap and I've always had the feeling he's got a big one in him.
From six starts over hurdles his four second spots isn't off-putting in the slightest, and with just two runs this term, Skelton clearly must know not only what it takes to win this race, but protecting the mark to be a force.
Rated 137, he is unchanged from a below-par run at Ascot last time the Ladbroke. While third, he was firmly put in his place.
However, the standout run in the Greatwood burns bright when second to Burdett Road in November. Remember, that was Be Aware's first run of the season and in a few strides he might well have turned over the winner.
It was a fairly obvious eye-catching run as he had a lot of ground to make up in the closing stages, but he really stuck his neck out conceding first, second and third run to Burdett.
Considering that was over 2m at Cheltenham, the Coral Cup trip looks perfect and for one so young, he had a good season as a novice and has proven he can handle a big field.
He remains high on my list and has just the one entry, which soothes the nerves.
Back Be Aware in the Coral Cup E/W
The old National Hunt Chase continues its remodelling phase and now with it being a handicap, the options for those Grade 1 horses may lie elsewhere.
I'm picking out a Nick Gifford runner, who wouldn't be an obvious port of call for a "Fez" winner, but the owner would in JP McManus and while it is a bit of cliche, if he was trained by a certain Willie Mullins, he wouldn't be a 20/121.00 poke. It was JP who provided Gifford with his two Grade 1 successes with Straw Bear many years ago so it's good top see the alliance still there.
He does have an entry in the Kim Muir over shorter, but this looks a better fit and he's 25/126.00 for the Kim Muir.
His handicap wins this term have started out at base level from 96, 101, 109 and 114. Telling perhaps that his first in the sequence and chase debut was over 2m6f in heavy ground back in October, so Gifford knows he stays and stays well in testing ground.
The 6yo was fairly effortless last time at Lingfield, once again in muddy conditions, but he had so much in hand of his mark it was ridiculous. He jumped superbly too and was barely nudged out in the end and was motoring.
A couple of quotes from Gifford are interesting, in particular with reference to ground. He said after Lingfield: "I thought his jumping was absolutely superb - he took lengths out of them at most fences. He's still progressing and because he doesn't do much at home, we don't know where his ceiling is.
"Once the ground gets better, he'll have a happy time out in the field, but there's lots to look forward to. He's a horse for next year. If he can keep on improving, we can dream about some big staying races."
Cheekily named too.
Back Aworkinprogress E/W in the National Hunt Challenge Cup Chase
Absurde could have been counting his Aussie dollars over the winter had it not been for some ill luck and misfortune in the Melbourne Cup with not the cleanest of runs, but he finished best of the British and Irish in fifth and still came home with a cool bundle of cash.
But can he do it on a cold, spring day at the Festival? You betcha he can as he was brilliant in winning the County Hurdle last year with one of the most inspired rides you'll ever see from Paul Townend.
Last to first, and then some.
He holds just one entry and Mullins has farmed this race since 2010 with Thousand Stars winning with seven wins including State Man - who must have been a good thing.
Back Absurde E/W in the County Hurdle
Here's where the guessing games start. Which race will Minella Sixo for Gordon Elliott go for? Well it won't be the Pertemps. More on that later.
He's entered in both the Grade 1 Novice Hurdles with Turners' and the Albert Bartlett, and with an entry in the potato race, the trainer must be confident about his stamina, and I always like to back something with stamina for the Martin Pipe.
The trainer has a good record in the race named after his old mentor with three winners in the last eight years, and the handicaps now you really need a graded horse just to be a player.
As a faller late on in a Pertemps Qualifier last time out at Haydock, that ticket has not been booked for that, so this looks the obvious race as he ran off 137 there.
Good novice form with four quick runs in succession in the winter included runs over further and he landed his novice on good ground. A risky one with the other options and the Pertemps qualifying disaster, but this wouldn't be a bad plan B.
A £2 EW Lucky Fifteen pays 56,380/1. We can dream.
Back Minella Sixo E/W in the Martin Pipe
Back all four selections in an E/W Lucky Fifteen here