Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Tips: Let's hope we're Walking On Air

One of the biggest problems when tackling a race such as the Ballymore at this stage is figuring out exactly which horses are actually going to turn up. The 2m 5f intermediate trip of this novice hurdle means that there will always be horses quoted who'll run in the Supreme over shorter and there will be those that run in the Albert Bartlett over further.

I've tried as much as possible to focus on horses that are more likely than not to turn up here, though with many of the big stables possessing an abundance of riches in the novice hurdling category, things aren't necessarily that simple.

Let's start with some trends...

Before we get into the nitty gritty of who may or may not turn up, let's take a look at a few trends, and what is usually required to win a typical running of the Ballymore.

A few things immediately struck me when I delved into past runnings of the race. Firstly, it's a contest where complete shocks are something of a rarity. In fact, only one winner in the last thirteen years has gone off at a double-figure price, that being Willoughby Court in 2017.

The second thing that stood out was that winners of the Challow Hurdle at Newbury have a dire record when contesting the Ballymore. In fact, 17 previous winners of the Challow - including the mighty Denman (albeit the race was at Cheltenham then) - have gone on to be beaten in the Ballymore.

Now that could be - and in all probability is - a statistical blip, though it will likely make ante-post backers of this year's Challow winner Stage Star more than a little nervous.

Finally, let's take a look at the pre-race Timeform ratings of the most recent winners.

When delving into these for the last 10 years, we can see that no winner was rated less than 138, and the highest was 154. That makes for an average rating of 149, and a median of 151.

That goes quite a long way to explaining why shocks are few and far between.

In short, you've already had to run to at least a useful level of form if you're to win a typical renewal of the race. Plenty on the day won't have achieved this sort of level.

Enough doubts to swerve the current favourite

Sir Gerhard heads the betting at time of writing, though he's one who I have a couple of doubts over, albeit not in terms of his ability.

Firstly, he strikes me as a genuine two-miler. His hurdling was fluent and slick when he made short work of a big field on his debut over timber at Leopardstown on Boxing Day.

For me, that sort of technique is most closely associated with elite two-milers, and I just wonder how he'd cope in a race that will put the emphasis more on stamina against some rivals who are destined to become top chasers in time.

Secondly, I think he was more than likely heading for the Supreme until Dysart Dynamo did his demolition job last week, with the betting moves now suggesting that Willie Mullins wants to keep his two stars apart, with the Double D looking his main Supreme hope.

Sir Gerhard undoubtedly looks a talent, but at this stage I'm more than happy to swerve him at what looks a skinny enough price of 5.69/2.

Is Journey the next Bob Olinger?

Journey With Me represents last year's winning connections, and it was hard not to be impressed with how this winning pointer took care of Minella Dreamer and Kilcruit from the front on his hurdling debut at Leopardstown last month.

Despite hurdling far from fluently, he was never seriously pressed to hold off the challenge of the runner-up, who did the form a good turn when winning his next start.

The obvious concern is that he won't get away with being so slapdash at his obstacles in Grade 1 company, but Henry De Bromhead will get at least one more run into this one before the Festival, and he's certain to improve with experience.

Asked about comparisons with Bob Olinger in the immediate aftermath of the race, De Bromhead was understandably keen to pour cold water on that, though this one still looks a smart prospect.

Will a Challow winner finally come good?

Now, back to that Challow Hurdle.

Stage Star was mightily impressive there, though somewhat surprisingly after the race, Paul Nicholls wouldn't absolutely commit to running at Cheltenham.

It seems the master of Ditcheat wants to get a good look at the opposition closer to the event before making up his mind, with Aintree a viable alternative if he considers that the Ballymore is going to come up too hot a race.

At this stage, I'd say he'll run, but with his trainer a little non-committal, it might be better waiting until nearer the day if you're thinking of backing this one.

Experienced Ginto may not line up either

Ginto is another towards the head of the betting who could be sent elsewhere, with Gordon Elliott describing him as a genuine stayer, which obviously brings the Albert Bartlett into play.

In fact, Ginto currently heads the market at 5.04/1 for that race on the Sportsbook, suggesting that that may be his number one target.

Likely to be one of the most experienced in the field if he does line up here, Ginto completed the hat-trick in a Grade 1 at Naas last time having previously won twice at Navan, including in Grade 2 company.

If you're tempted to back Ginto for either this race or the Albert Bartlett, a slight word of caution.

He's shown a tendency to jump right at times in his wins this season, something that he's got away with in smaller, less competitive fields, but a trait that could become a problem in a bigger field at the Festival.

Impressive hurdling newcomer makes plenty of appeal

With doubts over plenty of those towards the head of the betting, I'm keen on a horse who only made his seasonal/hurdling debut last week, but what a debut it was.

Walking On Air is a nicely-bred son of Walk In The Park who looked something out of the ordinary when absolutely dotting up in a novice hurdle at Newbury.

A half-brother to a pair of winners (including one over 3m), his dam also stayed well, so there's no doubting that he'll be suited by stepping up to the Ballymore trip, for all his win last week came over 2m.

His hurdling was fluent, and Nico de Boinville never had to get serious as Walking On Air scooted clear in the manner of one destined for much bigger things.

Encouragingly, in the immediate aftermath of the race, Nicky Henderson nominated the Ballymore as his target - no surprise there, given his stable houses the Supreme-bound pair of Constitution Hill and Jonbon.

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle ante-post verdict

To sum up, with running plans fluid for several of those towards the head of the betting, it looks wise to play it safe with one we know is almost certain to line up.

In Walking On Air, I believe we've identified a seriously talented horse who looks destined for much bigger and better things. He's undoubtedly an embryonic chaser, but that's been no bar to success for many top-class prospects in this race in the past, and he looks well worth siding with at double-figure odds.

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The Ballymore is one of the races under the spotlight in episode two of our new podcast, the Cheltenham Roarcast. Listen here