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Crazy Luck had no luck in this race last year
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Slow surface in Silent Words' favour
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Goodwood - 17:35 - Back Crazy Luck
Crazy Luck had absolutely no luck in this race last year when her path was blocked at every turn in the final two furlongs but with the stalls being in the middle of the track this year, I'm hoping she will be able to get a clear run and put up a good performance.
Her defeat that day came on the back of two narrow victories and while she didn't get close to winning again last season, she ran well on her final start of the season over this C&D when held up in last early on before making plenty of late headway to finish fifth.
I thought Crazy Luck ran as though in need of the outing on her first start of the season at Newbury in very testing conditions and she built on that next time when narrowly beaten at Windsor.
She does have to bounce back from a poor run last time at York but she's been freshened up since then with a 46-day break and is now back to a track where she's run well in the past.
This race is also likely to be run to suit given there are quite a few that like to lead or race very prominently and that could set the race up for Crazy Luck to close late.
It might be that she will run below par again but she has plenty in her favour today and any 7/18.00 or bigger appeals.
Goodwood - 17:35 - Back Silent Words
Silent Words is another who comes into this race on the back of a poor run but I think the return to a slower surface could see her bounce back to form.
After making a winning debut at Newcastle on her only start last year, she ran well on her first start of this season at Hamilton when travelling well to the front before being caught late on by Tajalla.
Silent Words' two runs since have been in Listed company and on much quicker ground. I thought she ran well at York considering that looked an unsuitable test and she was well beaten at Ayr last time when racing too keenly and looking to find the ground too quick.
Her action suggests that she wants some cut in the ground and she gets that today and I think the likely strong pace will suit her too as she can get some cover and try to be delivered with a late challenge having idled once hitting the front in the past.
It may turn out that Silent Words just hasn't progressed or that she will be too keen again over this longer trip but I think she has more ability than her rating suggests and any 14/115.00 or bigger appeals.
Read Daryl Carter's Tuesday tips here.
Recommended bets
Back Crazy Luck in the 17:35 at Goodwood 0.5pt e/w at 8/19.00
Back Silent Words in the 17:35 at Goodwood 0.5pt e/w at 16/117.00
RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2023
Staked: 155.00pts
Returned: 165.46pts
P/L: +10.46pts