Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies French import to break his maiden at Warwick

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Our racing expert has four selections on Thursday

Our resident tipster has analysed Thursday's racing and has four selections at Warwick and Taunton...

  • Sets clear standard on best form

  • Steady pace would suit ideally

  • El Gavilan is overpriced at Warwick


Warwick - 11:55 - Back El Gavilan

El Gavilan makes his British debut in the opening juvenile hurdle at Warwick and if he runs to anywhere near the best of his form in France, he is likely to prove too good for his rivals.

On his hurdling debut at Lyon, he finished second to subsequent Listed hurdle winner Sauvignon with Bon Prince, who has won three times since, back in third.

His two runs since then haven't quite matched up to that level but he's still run respectably on both occasions with the latest defeat at Clairefontaine coming against Moty Marc who has since finished third in a Grade 3.

I'm hoping that the plan is to go out in front and make use of his significant hurdling experience and that can also allowed Richard Patrick to control the pace to suit. El Gavilan was quite a weak finisher in France so a steady pace would ideally suit him.

There is the concern that he's left a top yard in France so he may not be able to run close to his previous form as a result and he has already shortened in the early market but he was initially put in at a ridiculous price given his best form puts him 20lb clear of the others and he still looks overpriced even with the worries. Any 9/43.25 or bigger appeals.


Warwick - 12:25 - Libre de Choeur

Libre de Choeur makes his rules debut in division one of the maiden hurdle for the same connections as El Gavilan and I think he's capable of running better than the market suggests.

He started his career in the Irish pointing field and made his debut in March at Ballycahane. Having raced in midfield for the first two circuits, he lost his place after making a slight mistake at the last in the back straight and couldn't go with the leading group on the very long run to two out. He rallied under pressure but couldn't challenge the leading pair late on and finished third.

Given that he lost his position at a crucial stage, that was an encouraging debut from Libre de Choeur. It may be that he will want more of a test of stamina and possibly softer ground to be at his best but I'm not sure this is a particularly deep race and given his potential for improvement having gained that experience, he looks a little overpriced. Any 16/117.00 or bigger appeals.


Taunton - 12:35 - As Fast As Wind

As Fast As Wind makes her handicap debut in the opening race at Taunton and I think she's capable of running better than her big prices suggests.

She ran an eyecatching race on hurdling debut at Exeter when ending up a long way behind at the end of the back straight before finishing strongly to be seventh.

A hood has gone on in her two starts since and she has once again been given a patient ride before making a little headway on both occasions.

The hood comes back off today and I think the combination of that and a likely good pace could see her in a better light. Any 20/121.00 or bigger appeals.


Warwick - 15:35 - Back Duffry Trixs

Duffry Trixs made his rules and stable debut for Richard Bandey in the bumper at Warwick and while this could end up being a strong race, I think he could run well at a big price.

He started his career with Colin Bowe and made a promising debut at Tyrella when given a patient ride. Having been held up and not jumped too well at times, he started to make headway going down the back straight for the final time. He didn't have the pace to go with Ballybrittas when that rival quickened off a steady pace after two out but once turning into the home straight, he picked up well under pressure to be narrowly beaten into second.

Given he was poorly positioned due to the pace and the track favours prominent racers, this was a promising start from Duffry Trixs and the winner has since won a maiden hurdle.

It may be that he's up against some smart rivals today given there are some interesting newcomers as well as those that have run to a good level under rules but I think he's a little overpriced and any 20/121.00 or bigger appeals.


Now read Katie Midwinter's Thursday tips here.


Recommended bets

Back El Gavilan in the 11:55 at Warwick 1pt win @ 5/23.50

Back Libre de Choeur in the 12:25 at Warwick 0.5pt win @ 20/121.00

Back As Fast As Wind in the 12:35 at Taunton 0.5pt e/w @ 35/136.00

Back Duffry Trix in the 15:35 at Warwick 0.5pt win @ 30/131.00

RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2024

Staked: 276.00pts

Returned: 362.40pts

P/L: +86.40pts

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