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Promise on nursery debut
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First time blinkers to bring improvement
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Blue Jammin is overpriced at Kempton
Ayr, 13:30 - Back Elizabetty w/o fav @ 8/19.00
Special Thanks was strongly fancied when beaten on debut and is once again a very short price today. Rather than take her on, I think there's an appealing option in the without the favourite market.
Elizabetty was an eyecatcher on debut at Newcastle when slowly away and racing at the back of the field for most of a steadily run race. She couldn't get room on the rail to make an effort on a few occasions before finally getting a clear run late on and finishing strongly to take fifth. She was much quicker away from the stalls on her second start at the same track but was stuck furthest from the favoured near rail. She was outpaced with just over two furlongs to go but ran on well without being given too hard a time to once again finish fifth.
The promise that she showed in both of those runs suggests there could be more to come from Elizabetty and the removal of the hood could help too as she might have switched off too well last time. It might be that she will show her best over further in time but I think the market is underestimating her chance and any 6/17.00 or bigger appeals in the without the favourite market.
Back Elizabetty in the 13:30 at Ayr 0.5pt win w/o fav
Kempton, 14:45 - Back Blue Jammin @ 7/18.00
There are some nursery debutants in the opening race at Kempton who may have the potential to improve but it's one of those who has already contested a nursery who appeals at the prices.
Blue Jammin could only finish fifth at Southwell but I thought he looked capable of better. He didn't travel too well early on and was driven along in last turning the bend. He gradually responded to that pressure and plugged on and would have finished a bit closer to the winner if getting a completely clear path late on.
Blinkers go on for the first time today and I think they could bring improvement from him given how he travelled through the early stages at Southwell and his half brother, Siouxperhero, was a multiple winner in blinkers. If the application of them does the trick and results in Blue Jammin travelling smoother through the first half of the race, I think he has the potential to take a step forward and be competitive in a race of this quality. Any 7/18.00 or bigger appeals.
Back Blue Jammin in the 14:45 at Kempton 0.5pt e/w
Ballinrobe - 19:55 - Back Speakasyoufind @ 35/136.00
The early market has picked up on one of the Philip Rothwell pair who were initially big prices in the staying maiden hurdle but the other one remains overpriced.
Speakasyoufind showed some promise on his point debut when looking a stayer, finishing second to Seaniecon when lacking the speed to go with him around the tight track at Ballingarry.
He joined Rothwell after that and made some eyecatching late progress on his debut for his new yard at Cork over 2m1f. He was stepped up two furlongs in trip at Kilbeggan last time but that was still likely to be too sharp a test for him and so it proved as he couldn't get competitive but once again made some late progress.
I think he would ideally want a galloping track to show his best but at least the trip this evening will be far more to Speakasyoufind's liking so there's the potential for him to step up quite significantly on what he's shown so far under rules.
It may be that he will only show his best over fences further down the line (maybe there's an 18-month plan in place) but I think the market is overlooking his chance in a race of this quality and any 20/121.00 or bigger appeals.
Back Speakasyoufind in the 19:55 at Ballinrobe 0.5pt win
Now read Katie Midwinter's Monday tips here.
Recommended bets
Back Elizabetty in the 13:30 at Ayr 0.5pt win w/o fav @ 8/19.00 Back Blue Jammin in the 14:45 at Kempton 0.5pt e/w @ 9/110.00 Back Speakasyoufind in the 19:55 at Ballinrobe 0.5pt win @ 35/136.00RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2025
Staked: 238.00pts
Returned: 372.82pts
P/L: +134.82pts