Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies double-figure chance in the hunter chase at Wincanton

• Good run in point last season

• Not given hard time on latest start

• Viva Lavilla is overpriced at Wincanton

Wincanton - 15:25 - Back Viva Lavilla

Mr Glass is the odds-on favourite for the hunter chase at Wincanton. He has the most solid profile having won both starts in points last season and he did look quite idle in front but that form doesn't put him as far clear of his rivals as the market suggests if they turn up at their best.

The size of that 'if' varies. Quintin's Man is next in the market as he bids for back to back victories in this race. The concern is that took a big dip in the second half of last season as connections continued to go to the well and he was well beaten on his first start of this season. That track wouldn't have been ideal for him and it could be that first time cheekpieces will sharpen him up but there are enough doubts to leave him at the price.

Upton Road has some fair form over fences but he was quite often a weak finisher and returns from a very long absence today, as does Go Sacre Go who was a comfortable winner of a weak maiden when last seen. This is much tougher and while he showed some ability under rules in the past, he's another who wasn't always too strong off the bridle.

The return of cheekpieces could see King Orry run better than he did at Chaddesley Corbett last time when he was barely on the bridle whereas Viva Lavilla was barely off it when a well beaten third on his first start of the season at Larkhill. When Duc De Bourbon and Paper Mill quickened the pace, nothing was asked of Viva Lavilla and that continued to be the case as he came home with quite a bit left in the tank in third.

It might be that the ground was quick enough for him that day and his jockey was looking after him on his first start in over a year so the softer surface today could be more in his favour. On his previous start over the same C&D, he ran an encouraging race in a Ladies Open. He travelled well and was in a close sixth jumping two out before finishing strongly under his inexperienced jockey to finish third.

The quality of that performance suggests Viva Lavilla could be competitive in a race of this quality and hopefully the run at Larkhill twelve days ago will have put him spot on for today.

It might be that this will be too much of a test of stamina for him or that he's just not as good as he was last season but I think he's overpriced given the clear reason for his latest run and any 7/18.00 or bigger appeals.

Wincanton - 16:25 - Back Seventeenothree

This looks the stronger of the two divisions of the bumper with Fresh As A Daisy just about setting the standard on form but it's another mare with experience who appeals at the prices.

Seventeenothree made her debut against the boys at Exeter in testing conditions and showed promise. She raced a shade keenly in midfield before making headway to track the leaders running up the hill in the back straight. She was bumped along turning the final bend as the pace lifted and managed to stay in touch with the leading pair and while she could never put in a serious challenge to win, she kept responding well to pressure to finish fourth.

The runner up in that race had previously run well in a bumper at Newton Abbot that has worked out very well while the fifth and sixth had shown a good level of ability in Irish points.

This looks a slightly weaker contest that the Exeter race and the ground should be no issue for Seventeenothree given how well she handled conditions at Exeter while it may not be ideal for some of her rivals. It may be that one of the newcomers will be above average but I think the market is underestimating her chance given the ability she showed on debut and any 12/113.00 or bigger appeals. 

Now read Katie Midwinter's Thursday tips here.