Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies Diamond to shine at Wincanton

• Generous to drop hurdles mark based on chase runs

• Yard burst back into life of late

• Orange Diamond is overpriced at Wincanton

Wincanton - 13:50 - Back Simple Getaway

Largy Poet is an extremely short-priced favourite in the opening novices' hurdle at Wincanton on the back a twelve-length victory at Exeter. However, I think his rating flatters him a little and one of his rivals could be more of a danger than the market suggests if bouncing back to his best.

Simple Getaway finished tailed off on hurdling debut at Aintree in late October but that was when he was in the care of Christian Williams whose horses tend to have a very slow start to the season, so that performance isn't as much of a negative for Simple Getaway's chances as it might first appear.

Prior to that, he had won an Irish point on his second start where he stayed on strongly in worsening conditions to beat Charming Fortune by eight lengths. That horse has since won a maiden hurdle in Ireland and is rated 116 in that sphere while the third was Redbridge Rambler who is now rated 103 over hurdles.

I thought the £180,000 sales tag overvalued Simple Getaway and was down to how he looks but he still looked a fair prospect based on that performance and it could be that he will take a big step forward from his rules debut this afternoon.

There is the concern that he's now faded quickly on two of his three starts and he's definitely a chaser of the future so this might just be a stepping stone to that but if he turns up at his best I think he's more of a danger to the favourite than the market suggests and any 7/18.00 or bigger appeals.

Carlisle - 14:35 - Back She's Notjoeking

Rocheval is a very short-priced favourite as he bids to make it three from three in this junior hurdle. He's run a decent level when winning a bumper and a junior hurdle but I think his stablemate could be more of a danger to him and Hill Spirit than the market currently suggests.

She's Notjoeking doesn't have the hurdling experience of Rocheval and Hill Spirit but she showed a fair level of ability in two junior bumpers. She looked green at various stages of the race on debut at Newcastle but stayed on well to beat Hill Spirit.

She couldn't follow up under a penalty over the same C&D next time but I think the ground might have been a bit quicker than ideal and she wasn't too well positioned.

I think the return to softer ground will help and having beaten Hill Spirit in a bumper, I'm not sure they should be so far apart in the market even allowing for the unknown over how She's Notjoeking will jump on hurdling debut. Any 8/19.00 or bigger appeals.

Carlisle - 15:10 - Back Choosethenews

Choosethenews was comfortably beaten by Giovinco on chasing debut at Newcastle but he was racing from 7lb out of the handicap that day and jumped out to his right on many occasions.

He had also shown a tendency to do that over hurdles, albeit not as markedly, so the switch a right-handed track is likely to suit him and his sole win in the pointing field was on a right-handed track at Garthorpe.

Choosethenews looked likely to be a better chaser than hurdler so it was encouraging that he was able to run to a fairly good level over hurdles and now that he's going the right way round and faces an easier task than on his chasing debut, he looks to have a good chance to get off the mark in this sphere. Any 7/24.50 or bigger appeals.

Carlisle - 15:10 - Back Jacks Parrot

In the same race, Jacks Parrot makes his British and stable debut for Greenall and Guerriero having shown some ability in France for Emmanuel Clayeux.

Having won an AQPS flat race on debut, he looked short of speed in two starts over hurdles at Auteuil when finishing fifth and seventh.

He was brought down at two out on chasing debut at Vittel when still in touch and he got shuffled back at a crucial stage next time at Lignieres when not beaten far in fifth.

Jacks Parrot finished strongly on his next two starts down in trip and Moulins and Auteuil and was stepped back up in trip to 2m6f at Auteuil for his penultimate start in France where he travelled well to jump to the front at two out but was caught very late on the run-in by Jolimay.

I thought he ran flat on his last start in France and might have had enough and been in need of a break by that stage of the year.

I think the way that British chases are run could see Jacks Parrot to better effect and this looks an ideal trip to be starting off at based on his performances in France.

It might turn out that he needs more time to acclimatise to his new yard and will only start to show his full ability in future seasons but I think an opening British mark of 106 could underplay his ability and any 9/25.50 or bigger appeals.

Wincanton - 16:05 - Back Orange Diamond

Orange Diamond has had five starts over fences since moving to Clive Boultbee-Brooks and has failed to complete on all of them but after being pulled up in the first four. He showed far more at Hereford last time and had just jumped to the front at two out when he crumpled on landing and came down.

Given that he hadn't raced over fences in France, I think it's generous of the handicapper to give Orange Diamond a rating over hurdles that is heavily influenced by his subsequent runs over fences, particularly as his jumping has let him down on a few occasions, and his hurdles rating in France was used to give him his initial chase rating of 114.

It's also a positive for his chance than Clive Boultbee-Brooks' horses have come to life of late after a very slow start to the season so we might now start to see the best of Orange Diamond and he can edge back nearer to the level of ability he showed in France.

I think Orange Diamond would be better suited by quicker ground but he handled soft ground well enough to Hereford last time and it could be that he's so well handicapped that he can get away with not particularly liking heavy ground today. Any 4/15.00 or bigger appeals.

Wincanton - 16:05 - Back Dundory

At a bigger price in the same race, I think Dundory has the potential to step up on what he's shown over hurdles so far on handicap debut.

He's been held up and not put into the race at any stage on his three runs in maiden hurdles but he made a bit of eyecatching headway over C&D two starts ago while being held together in the ground.

The ability he showed over hurdles suggests that he has the potential to be better than a rating of 84 over hurdles and he's won over heavy ground on the flat so hopefully the testing conditions today won't be an issue for him.

It may be that he will need the return of the cheekpieces that he wore on the flat last year to show his best in this sphere. However, he might just be one of those horses that doesn't transfer their flat ability to hurdling but I think the market is underestimating his chance and any 12/113.00 or bigger appeals.

Read Mark Milligan's Thursday tips here.