Rhys Williams struck with a 22/1 winner with his only selection yesterday and he heads to Worcester with another big priced selection.
"In both completed starts in points, she was unfavourably positioned so those performances can be upgraded"
Shaped well when patiently ridden in Irish points
Luck Of The Duck was a £9,000 purchase at the Goffs Spring Sale last month and I think she has a better chance of providing an instant return today than the market suggests.
She made her debut in a mares PTP bumper at Punchestown on heavy ground. Having been held up, she made headway towards the end of the back straight to race just behind the leaders and she moved into a share of third early in the home straight before weakening late in the testing conditions. The winner of that race went on to finish second in the Grade 3 mares bumper at Punchestown while the runner up was a very easy winner of a mares PTP bumper next time so it was a strong race of its type.
She was switched from the care of Sean Doyle to Cormac Doyle for her next start in a mares maiden at Cork. In a steadily run race, she was held up for much of the race. In a still very tightly packed field, she moved into midfield turning out of the back straight and jumped 3 out in fourth.
She came under pressure after and was outpaced by the front pair but was closing on them going to the last where she got in close and was slowly away from the fence. She finished third, beaten 5¾ lengths by First Glance who she reopposes today.
Luck Of The Duck was disappointing next time at Tipperary when pulled up but bounced back on her final start in Ireland when finishing second. Again, she was held up before starting to make headway early on the final circuit. She was at the back of a tightly packed group at 4 out and was angled to the outside and bumped along turning into the home straight.
She jumped 3 out in a share of sixth before closing strongly to be just over a length behind at 2 out. She was slightly awkward at that and was left behind by the front pair after that before being left in second after Nifty Getaway fell at the last.
In both completed starts in points, she was unfavourably positioned so those performances can be upgraded and given that she was only 5¾ lengths behind First Glance in a race where that rival was far better positioned given the pace, it seems wrong for them to be 20/1 and 7/2 respectively for this race.
I think Luck Of The Duck showed a suitable combination of speed and stamina in her runs for today's trip to be suitable over hurdles and the good ground should bring out the best in her.
There is always a concern that some horses don't transfer the ability they show in points to under rules but given that Luck Of The Duck showed some promise on debut in a bumper, I'm hopeful she won't fall into that category. A bigger concern is that this is a fairly quick turnaround from running for a buy-to-sell operation in Irish points to running for her new trainer and it may be that she only starts to show her true ability for Sheila Lewis after a break.
However, in a race that lacks depth in quality and has a short-priced favourite who jumps right, I think Luck Of The Duck is overpriced and any 12/1 or bigger appeals.
RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2021
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