Tony Calvin Ante Post Tips: Huge price could be the angle in the Arc

Tony Calvin
26 September 2022
4:00 min read

A 60.0 Exchange selection has caught Tony's eye...

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Sportsbook paying 4 place on Sunday's Arc
Soft ground a big possibility come race day
Huge-price Sealiway looks a lively outsider
Tony Calvin gives his early thoughts on the Arc

We are down to 28 in the Arc after Monday's forfeit stage, so it makes sense to have our first look at the race.

My only bet at present...

Actually, I personally got involved in the market after the Longchamp trials earlier in the month, and recommended on the Weighed In debrief the following day that punters should consider La Parisenne, who was then available at 40/1 in two places at the time and a similar price on the exchange.

Unfortunately, it looks like the Betfair Sportsbook's odds compilers agree and they are (obviously rightly, in my opinion) ducking her at 12/1 - though she is currently 20.019/1 on the exchange, which is eminently backable - but this is the case for her.

And I should point out that the Sportsbook are paying four places if you want an each-way bet on any of the participants here and now.

Anyway, back to La Parisienne's chances on Sunday.

First off, the fact she is a 3yo filly is no bad thing from a recent historical point of view - though no-one is saying that La Parisienne is an Enable or a Treve - and she has a very attractive profile for this race.

Torquator Tass wins Arc.jpg

She will be having just her sixth start this weekend, having only made her winning debut in December, and her story is one of steady progression.

She made a big leap from a defeat in Listed company to being only narrowly denied in the French Oaks in mid-June on her following start.

The winner Nashwa followed up with another Group 1 win in the Nassau at Goodwood next time, and the pair pulled over 4 lengths clear of the third, and the French filly was given the typical French Arc prep by being put away for the summer until reappearing nearly three months later in the Vermeille on September 11.

Now, that was clearly not the strongest renewal of that race, even if she had Oaks winner Tuesday immediately behind her in fourth, but she clearly would have won with any racing room at all from 3f out to the line.

She did remarkably well to finish such a close third there then, so perhaps she doesn't have the form divide to bridge that the current ratings and numbers suggest.

Weather watch

The forecast for this week is unsettled and variable - we could be looking at good to soft or soft depending on which forecast you look at - and her record to date suggests either going will be fine for her.

Clearly, I can't tip her at 12/1, but the 19/1 on the exchange is very acceptable if you can get matched at that level.

More of her later in the week I imagine, as regards a firm betting and tipping opinion.

She seems a certain runner, health permitting, but that isn't strictly true of another horse that interests me at this stage. That doubt - he could go to Ascot to take on Baaeed - probably explains why Onesto is 9/1 on the fixed-odds front but 14/1+ on the exchange.

If you fancy the Irish Champion Stakes winner Luxembourg for this (and at 5.7 favourite on the exchange, plenty do) then surely you have to like the Leopardstown runner-up at three times the price.

He was beaten only ½ length by Luxembourg, with Vadeni some 1 ¼ lengths further back in third, and surely the step back to 1m4f (and therefore avoiding Baaeed) will be the call from connections.

His earlier victory over the Arc trip (his only attempt at the distance) reads very well. His Grand Prix de Paris win has been handsomely franked since, with the runner-up taking the Prix Niel and the fourth landing the St Leger.

He had previously shaped well from a poor, wide draw in the French Derby, charging home over that extended 1m2f trip to finish fifth, and he has to be a major player if turning up on Sunday.

With no Baaeed, the Arc is clearly wide open, and likely to attract a massive field - and even more enhanced places for each-way punters - so I think it is best to hold a watching, betting brief.

But I will throw in another of my possibles at this stage.

Here comes my potential gamble...

Now, it may be that connections of Sealiway will decide to go straight to Ascot for the Champions Stakes with him, the race he won last season.

But that race has worked out terribly, and Baaeed's expected participation probably means he is playing for second place at best if he went directly there, and the return to the Arc trip could see him running a lot better than his current exchange price of 60.059/1 suggests.

He obviously took in Longchamp and Ascot last season and his Arc fifth, his only start to date at 1m4f, gives him a definite squeak at the odds here.

Now, I don't rate the Ascot Group 1 but tenacity over 1m2f won him the day there and he was going on strong at the line when beaten 4 ½ lengths in this race last season.

He hasn't set the world alight over 1m1f and 1m2f this term, though his close Ganay third wasn't bad, but maybe an extra 2f is what he wants. And he shaped well enough after a summer break here over 1m2f earlier in the month.

But no bets for now, though I will return tomorrow with a look at the domestic ante-post markets and hopefully a punt or two.

In the meantime, go well. Back tomorrow.