Antepost Racing Tips: Henderson novice a major Irish Grand National player at 12/1

Rain for the week at Fairyhouse and five places on Sportsbook

We've got 68 at the entry stage for Monday's Irish Grand National, and the wiseguy cracks will come that JP has 42 - not quite! But the Sportsbook has the big Fairyhouse contest priced up with five places for each-way bets and we also have a tricky forecast to contend with as from Tuesday through until Bank Holiday Monday, rain is forecast for five of the days with the ground on Tuesday described as good to yielding.

Out of the UK trainers, Ben Pauling is the most hardy and fearless with The Jukebox Kid, while James Owen and Neil King have got entries with One Big Bang and Lookaway, while Nicky Henderson has dragged himself away from the update on Constitution Hill's breakfast with Holloway Queen as an entry too

I like Lookaway as a bold-jumper from the front - but am worried with his claims over a new, stamina taxing trip. 

The Willie Mullins team is as formidable as usual with Argento Boy and Kiss Will the main contenders, and there's been an update on the Racing Post from Patrick Mullins - so skilled with either whip or pen, adding a sprinkling of the old hyperbole, which I tend to avoid. 

Last year's victor Haiti Couleurs got one for the Welsh twelve months ago, and Rebecca Curtis has an entry with Newton Tornado, but is so far down the list is unlikely to get in.

Trends for Irish Grand National

The last ten-year-old to win was Liberty Counsel for Dot Love in 2013 and since the turn of the century only three ten-year-olds have secured the top Easter prize.

There are three six-year-olds on the honours board since 2000, and a healthy number of successful seven-year-olds with nine wins from that age bracket since the year 2000.

Trainer Tom Gibney has two winners since 2012 with Intense Raffles and Lion Na Bearnai while Gordon Elliott's last winner in the race was eight years ago - and Elliott endured the most miserable of Cheltenhams, which must have left him wailing and gnashing his teeth.

Henderson could have a major chance with improving novice

With Cheltenham form in the book, Nicky Henderson's Holloway Queen has to be high on the list at 12/113.00  with so much in hand at the festival courtesy of a bloodless 5L victory in the 3m6f National Hunt Chase - won by Haiti Couleurs en route to this a year ago. 

That was just her fourth start over fences but she's a novice with plenty of stamina and ability, and the race finishing speed of 107% at Cheltenham against the third, fifth and sixth is interesting as the trio clocked finishing speeds below 100% to denoute her abundant stamina. 

She won a novice over the Newbury fences in February and hosed up by 14L - and if you can jump those Newbury fences you can jump anywhere. She came out well on top on the Race IQ metrics on the jumps index and also a massive 17.88 lengths gained metric earned - the second in the race Knight Of Allen (a good chaser) was under 10.

Holloway Queen has improved with the trip as Newbury was 3m and to Cheltenham in deeper waters 3m6f, so the distance should pose no real serious questions dropping down to 3m5f on Monday, and with the rain forecast this week, conditions will not deter me from backing her.

A price of 12/113.00 with five places will do for an each-way bet and she looks my number one contender.

Mullins outsider a contender at 20/121.00

Quai De Bourbon appears a little overpriced for dynamic duo Mullins and Michael O'Leary at 20/121.00 considering he was sent off 11/26.50 favourite for the race 12 months ago.

He finished third behind Haiti when just six years of age, although he never jumped with any fluency at all. As a novice, you'd say he probably just about passed the exam, but without honours or any gold stars due to that jumping but wasn't far behind that teenaged marvel Any Second Now.

This season has been a complete non-event for Quai De Bourbon as he was pulled up in his first two starts but at least found a glimmer of form last time finishing third at Leopardstown over what looked an inadequate 2m5f. He jumped to his right under prominent tactics and the winner chimed in with 110% as a finishing speed, so for a stayer, he did well to finish third.

Jumping right handed leads me to Fairyhouse, which could be the better option rather than Aintree - as he does hold an entry for the Grand National on the 11th. But working out where Mullins sends his horses and the over-indulged "where will he go" is a pointless exercise, if he runs, great.

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