The Punter's US PGA Championship In-Play Blog: Relentless Rai the surprise winner at Aronimink

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09:40 - May 18, 2026 - Long-shot seals the deal in style

The 108^th US PGA Championship looked destined for a tight finish but England's Aaron Rai, who was matched at as high as 560.0559/1 before the off, put the event to bed with an incredible run from the ninth hole in round four.

The 31-year-old from Wolverhampton played his first eight holes in one-over-par on Sunday before an eagle at the par five ninth sparked a brilliant run to the house that saw him play the back-nine in a bogey-free four-under-par. He won by three from the third round leader Alex Smalley and Spain's Jon Rahm.

Rai, who was generally a 400.0399/1 chance on the Betfair Exchange before the off, sealed the deal with this remarkable birdie putt on the penultimate hole and although he went off at a massive price, he wasn't a totally unexpected winner.

UNBELIEVABLE FROM AARON RAI.

He drains a 70-footer at the 17th to move to 9-under and open up a three-shot lead with one hole to play.#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/9CLcqoVXJ7

-- PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 17, 2026

Rai had won the Abu Dhabi Championship in November on the DP World Tour, and he'd shown his hand in his penultimate start when finishing fifth at the Myrtle Beach Classic, where he'd sat second and just one off the lead with 18 to play.

Rai's only previous victory on the PGA Tour was the 2024 Wyndham Championship, at another Donald Ross designed course, Sedgefield Country Club, so with the benefit of hindsight, he wasn't impossible to pick.

Rai is now trading at 100.099/1 to win next month's US Open at Shinnecock Hills where the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, will be attempting to complete the major grand slam.

Scheffler heads the market, with the world number two, Rory McIlroy, trading at 10/111.00.

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10:20 - May 17, 2026

Pre-event 360.0359/1 chance, Alex Smalley, who was tied for the lead after both rounds one and two of the 108^th edition of US PGA Championship, began round three with back-to-back bogeys and he dropped another shot at the fourth.

As many as 13 different players held at least a share of the lead on a dramatic 'moving day' at Aronimink but after playing his final 10 holes in five-under-par, it's Smalley who leads by two with 18 holes to play.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:15.

Alex Smalley -6 6.25/1
Jon Rahm -4 6.86/1
Ludvig Aberg -4 7.413/2
Aaron Rai -4 23.022/1
Nick Taylor -4 24.023/1
Matti Schmid -4 44.043/1
Rory McIlroy -3 8.415/2
Xander Schauffele -3 15.014/1
Maverick McNealy -3 36.035/1
Min Woo Lee -2 50.049/1
Chris Gotterup -2 55.054/1
Justin Rose -2 55.054/1
Hideki Matsuyama -2 60.059/1
Joaquin Niemann -2 80.079/1
Kristoffer Reitan -2 90.089/1
Ben Griffin -2 100.099/1
Cam Smith -2 100.099/1
Max Greyserman -2 170.0169/1
Bud Cauley -2 170.0169/1
Chris Kirk -2 210.0209/1
Martin Kaymer -2 350.0349/1
Scottie Scheffler -1 20.019/1
Brooks Koepka -1 90.089/1
Rickie Fowler -1 140.0139/1
-1 and 150.0149/1 bar

Smalley heads the congested market, but this is the first time he's ever led an event on any Tour through three rounds.

The 29-year-old has been within three of the lead with a round to go on the PGA Tour four times and he's fared no better than ok.

He finished fifth in the RSM Classic in 2022 having sat sixth and two off the lead and he finished second in the 2023 John Deere Classic, beaten by two, having sat second, trailing by two, after 54 holes but he finished 21^st in the 2022 Canadian Open, beaten by 13 strokes, having sat third and just two back after three rounds, and he performed poorly at the Players on Sunday last year.

Smalley sat tied for second and three off the lead, held by J.J Spaun, with a round to go but he ended the week in 14^th after a 76 in round four.

Smalley has putted remarkably well all week, and he ranks first for both Putting Average and Strokes Gained: Putting but can he keep rolling in the putts when the pressure is applied on pay day?

Leader taken on in the Top 5 Finish market

All things considered, he looks vulnerable and in an event that looks just too tough to call, taking on the leader in the Top 5 Finish market looks like the way to play round four.

Jon Rahm and Ludvig Aberg are next up in the win market on the Betfair Exchange, with Rory McIlroy, who finished his third round scruffily, the only other player trading at a single-figure price.

I'm happy to leave the win market alone now and just enjoy what is bound to be an exciting spectacle later but if forced to pick one out as a value price it would have to be Xander Schauffele.

The two-time major winner and the 2024 winner of this event, looks a fair price at 14/115.00 but it's incredibly difficult to predict how this is going to end I'm happy to leave the event alone.

Patrick Reed, who I backed after round one, is back in-the-mix and I haven't entirely given up on my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Ben Griffin, who sits tied for 11^th, or my pre-event fancy, Chris Gotterup, who also sits tied 11^th.

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07:00 - May 16, 2026

Having played in the slightly softer early conditions on day one, those drawn on the AM-PM side of the draw at the US PGA Championship enjoyed the easier conditions for the second day running yesterday.

With the wind dropping in the afternoon, the scoring improved fractionally and overall, that side of the draw averaged 0.85 of a stroke less than those drawn late-early but it was a tough day all round yesterday with only two men bettering three-under-par.

My 80.079/1 pre-event fancy, Chris Gotterup, shot a brilliant five-under-par 65 in the morning, and Ludvig Aberg shot the best round of the afternoon, a four-under-par 66, but it's pre-event long-shots, Alex Smalley and Maverick McNealy, who are tied for the lead at halfway at Aronimink.

Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 6:50.

Maverick McNealy -4 14.013/1
Alex Smalley -4 18.017/1
Chris Gotterup -3 16.531/2
Min Woo Lee -3 17.533/2
Hideki Matsuyama -3 19.537/2
Max Greyserman -3 60.059/1
Aldrich Potgieter -3 60.059/1
Stephan Jaeger -3 70.069/1
Scottie Scheffler -2 5.49/2
Cameron Young -2 11.010/1
Ludvig Aberg -2 14.013/1
Justin Thomas -2 27.026/1
Si Woo Kim -2 30.029/1
Harris English -2 48.047/1
David Puig -2 55.054/1
Jon Rahm -1 20.019/1
Patrick Cantlay -1 44.043/1
-1 and 70.069/1 bar

Nick Watney sat tied for 21^st and six off the lead when he won the now defunct National on the PGA Tour at Aronimink in 2011 but the other three course winners this century, Keegan Bradley, Justin Rose and John Jacobs, who won the Senior PGA Championship in 2003, were all inside the front three places at halfway.

How much credence we can give those four course results is debatable, as is looking back at this event at the various venues over the last 15 years.

Conditions and courses have differed but since Martin Kaymer won at Whistling Straits in 2010, from four adrift and tied 15^th, only one winner, Collin Morikawa in 2020, has been further back that seventh.

Those stats suggest we should be concentrating on the leading pack and it's very difficult to imagine anyone outside the top 15 winning given how congested the leaderboard is.

Watney shot 62 in round three back in 2011 but given we've only seen two rounds better than three-under par over the first two days this week, it's highly unlikely we'll witness anything close to that score over the weekend.

Having backed Gotterup and Cam Young before the off, I'm happy to leave the event alone for now and see what round three brings but I was tempted to get involved.

Market leaders fairly priced

The defending champ, Scottie Scheffler, is a perfectly fair price at 5.49/2 and his playing partner today, the talented young Spaniard, David Puig, is a big price at 55.054/1 but I'm going to resist the temptation to meddle.

I'm obviously happy with Young's position at halfway and he looks a very nice price at 10/111.00 on the Betfair Exchange.

The in-form world number three tidied up his second round brilliantly with an eagle at the par five ninth, his final hole of the day yesterday, and he's very nicely placed heading into the weekend.

If I wasn't already onboard, he'd be the one I'd be siding with now.

He ticked plenty of trend's boxes before the off and he came out on top of the rankings once Dave Tindall had crunched all the numbers for his 10-year trends piece.

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09:20 - May 15, 2026 - Scheffler in seven-way tie for lead

The first round of the 108^th edition of the US PGA Championship is all done and dusted and we have a seven-way tie at the top of the leaderboard, which includes one of Dave Tindall's First Round Leader tips, 80/181.00 chance, Alex Smalley.

Seven players are tied for the lead through 18 holes at Aronimink Golf Club, which is the largest tie after the opening round of a Major Championship in 57 years #PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/kQyyX3BAZ5

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) May 15, 2026

The world number one and defending champions, Scottie Scheffler, is another one of the seven to have crafted a three-under-par 67 around Aronimink and having been a 6.611/2 chance before the off, he's now trading at 3.211/5 on the Betfair Exchange.

There are a further seven players one off the lead in tie for eighth on -2 and just five strokes separate the top 66 players so it's absolutely wide open.

Given there's only been four events staged at this year's venue, Aronimink, this century, we don't have an awful lot to go on with regards to in-running trends but for the record, the 2003 Senior PGA Championship winner, John Jacobs, was tied for the lead after 18 holes and the other three course winners all trailed after round one. Although the early leaderboards were not as bunched as this one is.

Justin Rose sat tied for 19^th and three off the lead in 2010, Watney was tied 29^th and four adrift a year later, and Keegan Bradley was tied for 12^th and four back at the 2018 BMW Championship here.

At this event at the various venues used, it's a bit of a mixed bag over the last decade.

Jimmy Walker won wire-to-wire at Baltusrol ten years ago, as did Brooks Koepka at Bethpage when defending the title in 2019, and Xander Schauffele at Valhalla two years ago, but last year's winner, Scottie Scheffler, sat tied for 20^th and five back after round one and four of the last nine victors have been outside the top 30 after round one, trailing by between three and six strokes.

Aronimink plays tougher than expected

There was plenty of talk before the off that Aronimink wouldn't be a tough test this week and scoring was predicted to be a bit lower than it transpired after overnight rain on Wednesday night, but the Donald Ross layout held up well, with finding fairways more important than many had felt it would be.

Thanks to a brilliant day with the putter, Aldrich Potgieter managed to get it round in three-under despite finding only five of 14 fairways, but it was noticeable just how much easier it was to find the right sections of the greens if the fairways were found off the tee.

Scheffler, who found 13 fairways to rank tied first for Driving Accuracy, crafted a more controlled opening 67 and he's going to be tough to beat but odds of around 2/13.00 are short enough given how congested the leaderboard is, although he does have the possible advantage of an earlier tee time today.

The morning starters averaged 0.35 of a stroke less than the afternoon wave yesterday and the majority of the leading pack kicked off the event on Thursday morning.

With no rain, the course should dry out and get tougher as the day wares on today, which should level things out, but it's not guaranteed to work out that way as the wind is predicted to drop slightly in the afternoon.

Patrick the pick after day one

With the best player on the planet tied for the lead and with so many in-contention, this is clearly a tough event to predict and I should probably sit on my hands and see what today brings but I have chanced one this morning, the 2018 US Masters winner, Patrick Reed, who sits just one off the lead following a bogey-free two-under-par 68 yesterday afternoon.

Reed wasn't great off the tee yesterday, missing eight of 14 fairways, but he still hit 16 of 18 greens to top the Greens In Regulation stats and he didn't putt as well as he normally does either given he ranked 80^th for Putting Average and 53^rd for Strokes Gained: Putting.

As a former winner of the Wyndham Championship at the Donald Ross designed Sedgefield, and with two wins in the bag already in 2026, in Dubai and Qatar, Reed was someone I looked at closely before the off so I'm happy to get him onside now at 38.037/1.

As highlighted in the preview, the stat that stood out at the three events staged at Aronimink on the PGA Tour this century was Scrambling so the fact that he's one of the best in the world at saving par when a green is missed also bodes well.

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