US Open 2025 Special Bets: Dave Tindall's pick of the specials up to 40/1

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Bet 1 - Winning Score Under 278.5 Shots

Basically this translates into the winning score this week being 2-under or better.

Dustin Johnson won with 4-under at Oakmont in 2016 (actually 5-under if you knock off a dodgy penalty stroke in round four!) while the last six winning scores in this event are -6 four times, -10 and -13.

But Oakmont is by far the hardest course ever played, many will cry. The obvious evidence is Angel Cabrera's total of +5 in 2007.

But it played firm that year, the course is softer this time (more akin to 2016), the weather forecast suggests calm winds and, basically, standards are as high as they've ever been.

Bet 2 - Jon Rahm & Xander Schauffele both to Finish in the Top 20 (Incl. ties)

This is a no-brainer when focusing purely on US Open form.

Schauffele has made the top 20 in all eight starts at this event (seven were top 10s) while Rahm has cracked the top 20 in four of the last five.

Rahm finishes top 10 on LIV every week so the only slight doubt is Schauffele's current form. 

It's not great but it's not bad either. In his last six events he's had four top 20s while the other two were 25th and 28th. Put him in a US Open and you'd back Schauffele to hang tough once more.

Bet 3 - Rory McIlroy To Miss The Cut 

McIlroy missed the cut here in 2016 and he was in great form at the time. His two starts before Oakmont produced a win and a fourth and his two after a third and a fifth.

But it's his woeful performance in the Canadian Open (he was 21 shots behind the halfway leader when heading home early) that is the main worry.

His troubles are both technical (driver) and mental (trying to raise himself again after the high of winning The Masters and Grand Slam) so why not go the whole hog and back him to crash out at halfway. It's a tempting price.

Bet 4 - Dustin Johnson Top 10 After Round 1 (Inc. ties) 

This may be a difficult sell but I'm hoping that the 2016 Oakmont champion will find some inspiration on his return despite many thinking he's now just going through the motions on LIV.

DJ, twice a first-round leader in this event, has also been inside the top 10 after 18 holes in two of the last three US Opens and that's the requirement here.

Interviewed pre-tournament he feels his game is on the up and two top 10s in the last four LIV events back that up. As recently as March he set the pace in LIV Golf Singapore with a day one 63 while an opening 69 in tough conditions in Miami next time out put him second after the first lap.

Bet 5 - Sepp Straka each-way in Winner W/O Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler 

I like the Austrian in the outright market but if you think he may find one or more of the big guns just too good, this is the market to play.

DeChambeau, Rahm and Scheffler have seven Majors between them in the current decade and even though I'm against Rory, the two Americans and the Spaniard are massive contenders for the title.

Straka is third only to Scheffler and McIlroy in the FedEx Cup standings this season and was runner-up in the 2023 Open so he can bring it to the Majors too. The each-way terms are 1/4, 5 places.

Bet 6 - Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg & Collin Morikawa all to Finish in the Top 10 (Inc. Ties) 

The case for Schauffele has already been highlighted so let's just list his eight finishes in the US Open (keeping in mind that he has to make the top 10 in this market): 7-10-14-7-5-3-6-5.

Aberg made a highly promising US Open debut last year when holding the halfway lead before finishing 12th. He's cracked the top 10 in both US Masters starts and finished 65-66 for 13th in Canada last week so is rounding into form.

Morikawa has racked up nine top 10s in his 22 Majors and five others were top 20s so he's always been a force at this level since winning the US PGA on debut.

Bet 7 - Collin Morikawa, Joaquin Niemann & Shane Lowry all to Finish in the Top 10 (Inc. Ties) 

As just noted, Morikawa is a specialist in the Majors. To flesh out his US Open form a little, his last four finishes read 14-14-5-4 so he should give us a good run on a course where his driving accuracy (2nd for DA this season) will be rewarded.

Niemann is coming off a long overdue first top 10 in the Majors courtesy of eighth in the US PGA. His one start since then? Yet another win on LIV last week, his fourth in the last seven tournaments on the rebel tour.

Lowry was runner-up at Oakmont in 2016 after holding a big lead through 54 holes. Also a runner-up in the Truist Championship at nearby Philly Cricket Club last month, he's played some great golf this year without quite getting the win. For this market, just a top 10 will suffice and he rounds off what looks a very achievable 40/141.00 shot given that we have ties on our side. 

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