US Open 2025 First-Round Leader Tips: Picks from 30/1 to 90/1

• 30/131.00 Xander Schauffele has a superb FRL record in the US Open

• 90/191.00 Brian Harman boasts plenty of good US Open starts

• 60/161.00 Russell Henley has twice held the first-round lead at US Opens

• Get a free bet for every first round birdie your US Open selection scores. T&Cs apply

Weather forecast for Thursday

After plenty of rain in the build-up, the skies have cleared and for Thursday's opening round it looks a mix of sunshine and cloud.

Temperatures rise from around 60 degrees for the very early starters to the mid-to-high 80s after lunch.

You don't need winds on a course as tough as Oakmont so, thankfully, they seem to be minimal at around 3-6mph. There's no obvious weather bias.

As for FRL history in this event, over the last five years the leaders were:

2024 - 65 Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay
2023 - 62 Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele
2022 - 66 Adam Hadwin
2021 - 67 Russell Henley, Louis Oosthuizen
2020 - 65 Justin Thomas.

Not a bad line-up! Of those eight, five had a morning start.

As for Oakmont...

2016 - 66 Andrew Landry
2007 - 68 Nick Dougherty
1994 - 68 Tom Watson

More mixed!

Overall, tee-times shouldn't influence our thinking.

Xander Schauffele @ 30/131.00

One thing that stands out when perusing FRL form in the US Open is that certain players are habitual fast starters in the event.

Take Rory McIlroy for example: in the last six editions his 18-hole positions read 1-5-2-11-5-8.

Even though he seems out of form don't be surprised if, for one round at least, he finds something. He's 20/121.00 to lead the way.

But there are others with great records in round one of the US Open so I'll start by taking the 30/131.00 (1/5, 6 places) about Xander Schauffele, an absolute tournament specialist.

The two-time Major winner has seven top 10s and a 14th in eight appearances at the year's third Major.

His first-round positions are excellent too:  16-1-26-5-8-2-13-2. 

The '1' was his 62 on day one at Los Angeles CC two years ago and he's the only player in history to have twice shot 62 in a Major.

Schauffele goes out early from the 1st with Bryson DeChambeau and young Spaniard Jose Luis Ballester at 7.29am.

Brian Harman @ 90/191.00

Brian Harman had his big moment in the Majors when winning the Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.

But he's also done well in US Opens and showed that short and steady players can thrive even on longer courses by finishing as a surprise runner-up to Brooks Koepka in the 2017 edition at Erin Hills.

The left-hander, who has made his last seven US Open cuts, opened with a 67 to lie fourth after round one at Erin Hills while he's also featured prominently on day one in both 2022 and 2023.

A Thursday 65 on day one in LA two years ago put him fifth and a year earlier Harman was seventh after 18 holes following a 68 at Brookline.

More recently, his last seven R1 positions in 2025 show a third, a fifth and two 11ths.

He's also an early starter, hitting off from the 10th at 8.02am. Back April's Texas Open winner at 90/191.00.

Russell Henley @ 60/161.00

Sticking with tipping players at prices that are multiples of 30 (that isn't the reason, honest), I'll close with a punt on Russell Henley as I want an afternoon starter on my team.

And Henley looks an ideal candidate as he was the first-round leader in both the 2018 and 2021 US Opens.

With four top 25s (three are top 15s) in his last five US Opens, he enjoys the grind of this event and when you tally that with his form this year we have a bet at 60/161.00.

Henley won the Arnold Palmer Invitational on another tough course, Bay Hill, while his first-round exploits in 2025 include leading after day one at Pebble Beach and occupying second spot after the opening laps at the Cognizant Classic and The Heritage.

He arrives on the back of a fifth place at Memorial so hopefully the American can start strongly from his 1.03pm tee-time (10th). 

Now read US Open 2025: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 40/1 to 100/1