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US Masters 2023 Each-Way Tips: 25/1 Finau to flourish

Dave Tindall
02 April 2023
4:00 min read

Tony Finau can win the green jacket

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It's the first Major of the year and Tony Finau can take glory at Augusta National this week, says Dave Tindall...

25/1 Tony Finau has the game to triumph
40/1 Hideki Matsuyama can bid for a second win
33/1 Sungjae Im is another in-form course horse
100/1 Tom Hoge is 1st for SG: Approach this season

Main Bet: Tony Finau each-way (8 places) @ 25/1

If many are to be believed, only around 20 players from the 89 teeing it up at Augusta National are capable of winning the US Masters.

Some go even less than that, whittling it down to a dozen.

And it doesn't stop there. This year, there's a genuine belief that the green jacket will come down to a shootout between the top three in the world: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm.

The market backs that theory up, with the trio all quoted at single-figure prices. Fourth favourite Jordan Spieth is double the price of third favourite Rahm so there's some clear separation.

This each-way preview doesn't get involved in short prices but, if looking to oppose that front three, I'd offer these quickfire responses which may or may not sound convincing.

Rory McIlroy: too much scar tissue at Augusta over the years.

Scottie Scheffler: only one defending champion since 2007 has managed a top 10.

Jon Rahm: never been closer than six back going into Sunday so perhaps this isn't his dream course.

Of course, it would be absolute folly to rule any of that trio out and Scheffler could be hard to stop if his thinking is as clear as it was in 2022.

Spieth I already have running for me after he came top of my 10-year trends preview so I'll leave him out of this one.

For the record, he must have a golden chance after a win, two seconds and two thirds at Augusta National.

Any time he's in good form - Spieth certainly is after a pair of top fours on the Florida Swing - the Texan has to be one for the shortlist. The 16/1 is very backable.

But with each-way offerings of 8, 10 and 12 places, I'm going to look further down the betting.

My main pick is Tony Finau.

Finau's Masters history includes his famous "what happened next" moment when he discolated his ankle before casually popping it back in when running down the fairway celebrating a hole-in-one in the Par 3 contest.

And he also had a front-seat view of Tiger Woods' incredible victory in 2019. Watching how playing partner Tiger closed that out could still prove invaluable if he puts himself in similar position this time.

Finau, blessed with both a power game and delicate touch, has always looked a Masters type and it's no surprise that his record so far shows a top five in 2019, top 10s in 2018 and 2021 and nothing worse than 38th.

Asked last year why he feels so comfortable at Augusta National, Finau responded: "I'm a very visual player, very creative type of player, and this golf course allows you to hit shots, allows you to move the golf ball which is really cool, and that's kind of how I grew up playing, curving the golf ball a lot.

"This golf course allows you to use your creativity around the greens, into the greens, and so I think that the combination of that and just having this as a major championship, that special feel, has been why I think I've had some good success around this place."

With a top five in all four majors and 10 top 10s in the 26 he's played, Finau has dropped plenty of hints that he's capable of landing the game's biggest prizes.

But what really elevates him this year is his relatively new-found ability to win.

Since the last Major was played - the Open Championship at St Andrews - Finau has won three times on the PGA Tour. Stuck for so long on one win at this level, he now has five.

This is the first chance he'll have to take that ingrained winning habit into a Major and his numbers suggest he has the class and temperament to take it.

Back Tony Finau each way (8 places) @

25/1

In a recent article on the official Masters website, stats man Justin Ray notes: "Since 2015, 36 percent of Masters champions' overall strokes gained came from approach play - easily the most of the four disciplines."

Finau ranks 3rd for Strokes Gained: Approach this season, that stellar iron play helping him to a ranking of 5th overall for SG: Tee To Green.

Starting from his victory in November's Houston Open, Finau hasn't ranked worse than 17th for SG: Approach in eight events so it's absolutely reliable too.

Other plus points: he's 11th in Bogey Avoidance (an underrated Masters stat), 11th in Bounce Back (highlighting his temperament), 6th in Par 4 Scoring Average and 5th for Par 5 Scoring Average.

Stats gurus Clippd also note an upward trend in both his putting from 15-35 feet and 35 feet+ and those are key distances at Augusta and generally a better measure of who is rolling their rock well.

Strong lag putting explains why Bubba Watson, Bernhard Langer and Adam Scott all won here despite not being regarded as strong performers on the greens.

Finau doesn't quite have the same sexy recent results as others but he hasn't finished outside the top 25 in any event since that Houston Open win nearly five months ago.

Back him at 25/1 with 8 each-way places.

Next Best: Hideki Matsuyama each-way (10 places) @ 40/1

Hideki Matsuyama, the 2021 green jacket winner, is the one in the betting who looks seriously underrated in my eyes.

It's easy to think that he had his moment in the sun two years ago when surging to the front with a third-round 65 and then seeing it home by a single shot after being five clear after making birdie at 13.

But that brilliant win hardly came out of the blue.

The Japanese star has one of the most consistent recent Masters records and set the tone when finishing as Low Amateur (tied 27th) in 2011.

Since 2015 his finishes read: 5-7-11-19-32-13-1-14. That's seven top 20s in the last eight Masters.

Back Hideki Matsuyama each way (10 places) @

40/1

An eight-time PGA Tour winner, Matsuyama was fifth at The Players Championship last month after shooting 67-68 on the weekend and, at the time of writing, he's tied 12th going into the final round of the Valero Texas Open after a Saturday 68.

His short-game wizardry is highlighted by a ranking of 7th in SG: Around The Green this season while his driving and long iron play (180 yards+) are trending up at the perfect time according to stats from Clippd.

It's never easy to defend but Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson are recentish examples of players who, presumably feeling far more relaxed, won again two years on from their first green jacket.

Hopefully Matsuyama can do the same at 40/1 (10 places).

Next Best II: Sungjae Im each-way (10 places) @ 33/1

I'm going to be a bit cheeky and have a second 'next best', to take my number of bets to four.

Part of the thinking is also Matsuyama's frustrating habit of pulling out with a bad neck. He did so ahead of the WGC Match Play although that may have been 'tactical' to be ready for this.

The bonus bet I'll have is Sungjae Im at 33/1 and that's again with 10 each-way places.

It's a fairly simple argument. The Korean has posted tied second and tied eighth in two of his three Masters and returns in strong form.

His tied second came in 2020's November Masters but to remove any nagging doubts that he might not be as good in the usual April slot, he took the first-round lead 12 months ago and was third with a round to play.

Back Sungjae Im each way (10 places) @

33/1

Last year he said: "It was great to have a great finish at my Masters debut, and because of that experience I feel comfortable when I come to Augusta. I feel like I can play well here every time.

"I think it fits my game. It requires tee to green good shots overall and to put the shot into spots where I have a chance to attack the green is important, so I think it fits my game, yes."

Backing that up, he was one of just four players in last year's Masters who ranked in the top 25 for all four Strokes Gained categories while this season he's 12th for SG: Total and 13th Tee To Green.

His distance putting is trending up, he was runner-up at the Tour Championship on his last start in Georgia and he finished sixth at TPC Sawgrass on his most recent strokeplay start, matching his top six from another elite event: the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Final Bet: Tom Hoge each-way (10 places) @ 100/1

Before I get to my longshot, I did look closely at Min Woo Lee and Justin Rose at 60s.

Lee was tied 14th on debut last year and it could have been much better had he not come home in 40 in Sunday's closer.

Rose is a two-time runner-up here and got back into the winner's circle at Pebble Beach.

But, instead, I'll back another Pebble winner and take Tom Hoge at 100/1 in the 10 places market.

Hoge is the surprise name at the top of the Strokes Gained: Approach stats this season although we shouldn't be too shocked as he was 11th for SGA in the previous campaign.

Beyond that, Hoge ranks 13th for Strokes Gained: Total, is a top 50 putter, 7th for Birdie Average, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 19th for Bogey Avoidance and 23rd in Bounce Back.

Hoge got a first look at Augusta last year and finished a respectable 39th, a finish that was compromised by dropping three shots over the final two holes.

Back Tom Hoge each way (10 places) @

100/1

In 2023, he's finished third at both the Sentry TOC and the Players Championship while a top five at the 2022 Tour Championship adds some location form.

The boffins at Clippd also show him trending up in four of the five categories that point to a strong showing at Augusta. For the record, no other player in the field features more than three times.

Hoge looks just the sort of tee-to-green merchant - think Chad Campbell or Kenny Perry - who could give it a big run and be a somewhat surprise presence deep into Sunday.

Golf.... Only Bettor. Watch our US Masters Pod below.

Recommended bets

Back Tony Finau each-way (8 places) @ 25/1

Back Hideki Matsuyama each-way (10 places) @ 40/1

Back Sungjae Im each-way (10 places) @ 33/1

Back Tom Hoge each-way (10 places) @ 100/1

Dave's Profit/Loss

Staked: £720
Returned: £316.5
P/L: -£373.5

Previous:
2021/2022 P/L: -£315.35
2020/2021 P/L: +£1475.87
2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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US Masters 2023 Each-Way Tips: 25/1 Finau to flourish

25/1 Tony Finau has the game to triumph

40/1 Hideki Matsuyama can bid for a second win

33/1 Sungjae Im is another in-form course horse

100/1 Tom Hoge is 1st for SG: Approach this season

Main Bet: Tony Finau each-way (8 places) @ 25/1

Next Best: Hideki Matsuyama each-way (10 places) @ 40/1

Next Best II: Sungjae Im each-way (10 places) @ 33/1

Final Bet: Tom Hoge each-way (10 places) @ 100/1

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25/1 Tony Finau has the game to triumph

40/1 Hideki Matsuyama can bid for a second win

33/1 Sungjae Im is another in-form course horse

100/1 Tom Hoge is 1st for SG: Approach this season

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Dave's Profit/Loss

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