The Punter's In-Play Blog: Augusta specialist set to double up in Texas

• US Masters latest odds

• Read Dave Tindall's US Masters 10-year trends piece here

• Connors, Koepka and Matsuyama backed to win at Augusta

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08:10 - April 2, 2022

A bogey at the 18th hole after a poor drive took the shine off Patrick Rodgers' third round at the Valero Texas Open yesterday but his one-under-par 71 has seen him retain the lead with a round to go. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:00.

Patrick Rodgers -12 3.052/1
Corey Conners -11 2.962/1
Matt Kuchar -9 9.617/2
Chris Kirk -8 16.531/2
Sam Stevens -8 32.031/1
-7 and 50.049/1 bar

Course specialist, Matt Kuchar, hit a low of 3.052/1 yesterday as he looked like being Rodgers' main rival today but he had to take a penalty drop for an unplayable lie on the 18th which led to a double-bogey seven and, trailing by three, the stats suggest he has plenty to do now...

Martin Laird shot 63 in round four ten years ago to win by two, having trailed by five in seventh place with a round to go, and Adam Scott was three adrift in sixth when victorious in the first edition staged here in 2010 but every other course winner (11 in total including the Korn Ferry Tour event in 2020) has been inside the top-three places and within two of the lead after three rounds.

The last two winners, J.J Spaun and Jordan Spieth, were both tied for the lead after 54 holes and eight of the 12 Valero Texas Open winners at TPC San Antonio have either led or been tied for the lead after three rounds, suggesting Rodgers is the man to beat but I'm not convinced.

As highlighted yesterday, Rodgers' record when leading at halfway is nothing to write home about and his record when leading through three rounds isn't any better...

He was tied for the lead at the Farmers Insurance Open in 2017 but finished fourth, beaten by four, he finished second at the John Deere Classic six months later, having led by two through 54 holes, and in November last year, he finished 10th at the RSM Classic, beaten by five, having been tied for the lead through 54 holes.

Still in search of a first PGA Tour win, that would see him get him into the field at next week's US Masters for the first time, Rodgers is going to find it very tough to keep composed with so much on the line and I much prefer the chances of the man in second - the 2019 winner, Corey Connors.

With Augusta form figures reading MC-46-10-8-6, Connors has shortened up to 60.059/1 to win next week's US Masters. Whether that's value or not is debatable but he's a very fair price to double up here at around 2/1 and I was more than happy to get him onside.

My pre-event pick, Chris Kirk, is lurking should the front three flop but given the past results here, he looks up against it.

Connors isn't the only mover in the US Masters market. Hideki Matsuyama caught the eye in Texas, moving up 24 places into the top-12 and Brooks Koepka has found some form at the LIV Golf Invitational Orlando, where he leads by three with a round to go.

I'll be back later today with my US Masters preview.

09:00 - April 1, 2023

After the fog delays on Thursday, some players have as many as eight holes still to play of their second rounds at the Valero Texas Open so the leaderboard could look quite different at the halfway stage but here's the current state of play at 08:50, with prices to back and holes played in round two, where applicable.

Patrick Rodgers -11 3.7511/4
Corey Conners -8 6.411/2
Roberto Diaz -8 (thru 10) 30.029/1
Brendon Todd -7 (thru 15) 11.010/1
Michael Thompson -7 30.029/1
Matt Kuchar -6 18.017/1
Thomas Detry -6 23.022/1
Eric Cole -6 40.039/1
Chris Kirk -5 23.022/1
Luke List -6 (thru 15) 60.059/1
-5 and 60.059/1 bar

The stats tell us you can't win from miles back here. The 2010 champ, Adam Scott, who was the first of 12 Valero Texas Open winners at TPC San Antonio, trailed by five after round one and Martin Laird, the 2013 winner, was five adrift at halfway but that's the furthest any winner has trailed here after rounds one or two (Laird had trailed by three after round one).

The obvious place to start is with the leader, Patrick Rodgers, who was a disappointment for many last week when fairly well-fancied to win the Corales Puntacana Championship.

An opening 77 put him firmly behind the black ball in the Dominican Republic and his second round 68 wasn't quite good enough to see him make the weekend but the pre-event 110.0109/1 chance has bounced back spectacularly here to lead by three.

This has been a great event for first time winners on the PGA Tour and Chappell is attempting to become the fifth in six renewals in his 235th attempt but he looks short enough at less than 3/1.

As many as four of the first six Valero Texas Open winners were in front at halfway but the last seven course winners (including Davis Riley on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020) have all been trailing through 36 holes and Rodgers hasn't been great when leading.

Having led by a couple through rounds two and three, he was caught and passed by Bryson DeChambeau at the John Deere Classic in 2017, where he finished second, beaten by one, but he's been hopeless since.

Since finishing second at the JDC, Rodgers has led or been tied for the lead three times at halfway (twice on the PGA Tour and once on the Korn Ferry) and he's finished 14th, 37th and 20th!

Rodgers also has the added pressure of knowing that a win will get him into next week's US Masters and he looks opposable.

The 2019 winner, Corey Connors, is the current second favourite but he lost his way a bit yesterday after being matched at a low of 3.613/5 when he hit the front. He may well prove the man to beat over the weekend but that remains his sole success on the PGA Tour and odds of around 5/1 make little appeal.

Brendon Todd will return to the track this morning with a 25-foot putt for birdie on the par three seventh, and he could get closer to the leader but the two I like at the prices available are Roberto Diaz and Harry Higgs.

Playing in the same three-ball, Diaz and Higgs get to play the last eight holes of their second rounds in benign conditions this morning - starting from the tee-box on the par five 11th.

Higgs, who trails by six, has more to do than the Mexican but he looked over-priced at 85.084/1.

I'll be back tomorrow morning with another look when we should be back on track with just one round to go.

12:20 - March 31, 2023

Early morning fog delayed the start of the Valero Texas Open and after a brief improvement that allowed play to begin, the event was suspended for a couple of hours when it thickened up again.

As highlighted yesterday, looking at the weather forecasts, I suspected there would be an advantage to the early starters on day one but it's very hard to predict after yesterday's delays.

The morning wave did manage to complete their rounds, with the more experienced players coming to the fore in the tricky, blustery conditions.

Huge outsiders, Roberto Diaz and MJ Daffue, who are both in their mid-30s, shot four-under-par 68s to tie the clubhouse lead with a pair of veterans in their 40s - Padraig Harrington and Matt Kuchar - but it's pre-event 590.0589/1 chance, Justin Lower, that leads on -5, despite the fact that he's only played nine holes.

The afternoon starters got the better of the conditions yesterday and Corey Conners, Tyrrell Hatton and Si Woo Kim dominate the market.

The 2019 winner, Connors, is three-under-par through nine holes and both Hatton and Kim are two-under, having played ten and nine holes respectively.

The round one afternoon wave will return to the course at 7:45 a.m. local time today (13:45 UK time) to complete their opening rounds before embarking on their second rounds and it's very hard to predict which side of the draw is best now.

The forecast suggests a blustery start to the day today, with a bit of respite this afternoon, and it's highly likely that someone from the PM-AM side of the draw will be leading at the close of play this evening.

That side of the draw will also have the advantage of reaching the halfway stage of the tournament today but with benign conditions forecasted tomorrow morning, those drawn AM-PM may yet the better of it - depending on how much of their second rounds they get done today.

The first round of the Valero Texas Open is suspended due to darkness at 7:23 p.m. and will resume at 7:45 a.m. Players can finish the hole they are currently on.

? PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) March 31, 2023

There's a chance that the market is overly favouring the PM-AM wave and having shot three-under-par opening rounds, South Africa's Garrick Higgo, the three-time PGA Tour winner, Chez Reavie, and the Dallas-based 31-year-old, Harry Higgs, are all interesting candidates currently trading at juicy prices.

It's a very tricky event to evaluate though and waiting for the stagger to unwind completely is the prudent play.

10:30 - March 30, 2023

The Valero Texas Open doesn't start until 13:30 UK time but given the weather forecast, I thought I'd kick off the blog nice and early with a look at how the day may pan out.

There have been some huge draw biases at this event over the years and there's a reasonable chance that we may get another sizable one this year.

I've been keeping an eye on the forecasts all week and although they've changed slightly, the AM-PM side of the draw has always looked like being advantaged and that still appears to be the case.

The wind is predicted to get up this afternoon, as is so often the case, but there's a likelihood that it drops tomorrow afternoon after a breezy spell around lunchtime. If that happens, the later you tee-off tomorrow the better.

I'll be looking closely at the early leaders from the morning wave today - especially those drawn late tomorrow - as the stats suggest being up with the pace is important here.

The last two winners - Jordan Spieth and J.J Spaun - were inside the top-five places after every round and Adam Scott, the first winner at TPC San Antonio, back in 2010, is the only winner to be more than four strokes adrift after the opening round. He trailed by five.

In 12 renewals here, we're yet to see a first round leader take the title but nine victors have been within three shots of the lead and a slow start is clearly tough to overcome.

With the US Masters now just a week away, it's well worth keeping an eye on this week's LIV Golf event - the LIV Golf Invitational Orlando 2023 - which Matt Cooper has previewed here, and if you want your Augusta appetite whetting, take a look at Dave Tindall's 10-year trends piece here.

Dave has also looked at the First Round Leader market in this event and he's put up three selections here.

Valero Texas Open Pre-Event Selections:
Chris Kirk @ 40.039/1
Nicolai Hojgaard @ 60.059/1

In-Play Picks:
Roberto Diaz @ 30.029/1
Harry Higgs @ 85.084/1
Corey Connors @ 3.185/40

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:

Back 2u Patton Kizzire @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Back 1u Kevin Chappell @ 240.0239/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 1u Kevin Chappell Top-10 @ 14/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Back 1u Ben Taylor @ 250.0249/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 1u Ben Taylor Top-10 @ 14.013/1

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