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Brian Harman was matched at as high as 290.0289/1 to win the Valero Texas Open on Monday, but he was generally a 160.0159/1 chance before the off and he was trading at 21.020/1 on Thursday after he'd posted a six-under-par 66 to sit third behind Sam Ryder and Keith Mitchell.
With nobody making a significant move on Friday morning, Harman's price contracted to around 15.014/1 before he began his second round and those who had backed him woke up on Saturday morning happy.
Harman backed up Thursday's 66 with another on Friday afternoon and leading the field by four, he was trading at less than 2/13.00.
For the second day running, he shortened up throughout the day before his round began and after a wobbly start (two-over after four) he bounced back brilliantly to post level par on a tricky windy day on which only two men broke 70.
Leading by three with 18 to play, the 2023 Open winner was trading at 1.748/11 but with more windy weather in the forecast, an off the pace winner at a big price couldn't be ruled out.
As it transpired, Andrew Novak, who began the day in solo second and three off the lead, emerged as Harman's biggest problem.
Both men birdied the par five second but after Harman had bogeyed four and Novak had birdied five, the gap was down to one, with a gap of four back to their playing partner, Tom Hoge, in third place.
The conditions were tough and after all three men had bogeyed the sixth hole, Novak also bogeyed eight and nine, but he was still within a stroke when Harman double-bogeyed the ninth.
With nobody else really threatening, Novak was matched at a low of 2.265/4 when Harman looked to be in trouble at the par four 10th after a poor drive, but he made this quite brilliant up-and-down from the greenside bunker for par and that appeared to be the turning point as just three holes later the lead was back to three.
After back-to-back bogeys by Harman at 15 and 16, the gap at the top was down to just two (Novak also bogeyed the 15th) but Novak put in a nervous finish, bogeying both 17 and 18 and in the end, Harman won by three over Ryan Gerard, with Novak finishing alongside Maverick McNealy in fourth.
Gerard never really looked like winning but having been trading at around 750.0749/1 on Sunday morning when trailing by nine in a tie for 17th, he made for a decent trading vehicle for someone given he was matched at a low of 5.79/2.
When the wind blows it makes for volatile scoring but there's nearly always at least one or two players in the field that construct a decent round regardless and Gerard's three-under-par 69 was one of only three sub-70s on Sunday.
Harman priced at 210.0209/1 to double up at Augusta
Having been matched at as high as 400.0399/1, Harman is now a 210.0209/1 shot to win the US Masters and he has a chance given he sat second at halfway back in 2021 (finished 12th), two years before he won the Open Championship.
Harman had strong form at two correlating courses - Waialae country Club and El Camaleón - and he'd been a selection before the off 12 months ago when he finished 25th so it was a bit frustrating not to have put him up in the Find Me a 100 Winner Column, but I was happy to back at 20/121.00 after round one.
Having backed Rory at 5/16.00 at halfway at the Players, and Victor Hovland at 4.84/1 with a round to go at the Valspar two weeks ago, it's been a good spell for my in-play picks so look out for the In-Play Blog once the US Masters has kicked off.
As highlighted in the preview, up with the pace is the place to be at Augusta so I suspect I'll be getting involved quite early on.