Valero Texas Open: Count on course specialist Connors at 18/1

• Bet on the Masters here on the Betfair Sportsbook and here on the Betfair Exchange

• For more Masters content read Matt Cooper's profiles of the leading 50 players

• The Masters starts on April 10. Read Dave Tindall's guide to the 2025 Masters here!

---

Tournament History

Having first been staged in 1922, and always played in the San Antonio area of Texas, the Valero Texas Open is one of the older events on the PGA Tour.

The tournament was staged at La Cantera Golf Club between 1995 and 2009 before switching to its current venue, TPC San Antonio, back in 2010, and having signed up until 2028, this is going to be the host course for some time to come.

There was no event in 2020 because of the pandemic but as was the case in 2013, and for the last five years, the Valero Texas Open is the last event before the year's first major championship - the US Masters - next week at Augusta.

---

Venue

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course), San Antonio, Texas

---

Course Details

Par 72, 7,438 yards
Stroke Average in 2024 - 72.51

This tough Greg Norman-designed track opened in January 2010 and fellow Aussie, Adam Scott, won the inaugural staging here just a few months later. 

As you'd imagine with a course called the Oaks, the track winds its way through stands of oak trees.Although fairway widths vary, it's not an especially tight track but avoiding the trees is essential. 

A unique feature of the course is that all downhill holes play into the prevailing wind, while the uphill holes play downwind. TPC San Antonio is yet another track laid to Bermuda grass and the greens, which are overseeded with bentgrass and poa, usually run at around 11 on the Stimpmeter.

The greens are set to run slower than the average but that's necessary given how often the wind blows here.

The Oaks also hosted the TPC San Antonio Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour in July 2020. 

---

Weather Forecast

---

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 13:15 in the UK on Thursday

---

Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Akshay Bhatia -20 75.074/1 (playoff)
2023 - Corey Connors -15 30.029/1
2022 - J.J Spaun -13 220.0219/1
2021 - Jordan Spieth -18 15.014/1
2020 - Event Cancelled (Covid)
2019 - Corey Conners -20 260.0259/1
2018 - Andrew Landry -17 150.0149/1
2017 - Kevin Chappell -12 32.031/1 

---

What Will it Take to Win the Valero Texas Open?

Akshay Bhatia ranked eighth for Driving Distance last year but the man he beat in the first playoff ever staged here, Denny McCarthy, only ranked 77^th and the previous six winners here ranked only 52^nd, 46^th, 23^rd, 28^th, 46^th and 25^th for DD so length off the tee is far from imperative.

Driving Accuracy was an important stat in 2019, with the top five ranking tied-seventh, tied-seventh, first, 26^th and fourth and Corey Connors ranked third for DA when winning the event for a second time in 2023 but in the four renewals in-between, 25 players finished inside the top-five and ties and only four of them ranked inside the top 20 for Driving Accuracy and last year's top-five and ties ranked 44^th, 38^th, 69^th, 18^th, 58^th and 2^nd. 

The 2018 winner, Andrew Landry, Connors in both 2019 and 2023 and last year's winner, Bhatia, all topped the Greens In Regulation stats so that's clearly a key stat and a good week with the putter is usually essential...

Connors only ranked 33^rd for Putting Average in 2023 but the runner-up, Sam Stevens, ranked first and last year's playoff protagonists ranked seventh and first.

As many as seven of the last ten winners have ranked inside the top-five for that Putting Average.

The three winners before Conners won the title for a second time two yeras ago all topped the Putting Average rankings. Conners averaged just 1.53 in 2019, Jordan Spieth 1.52 in 2021, and JJ Spaun averaged 1.54 three years ago.

Scrambling is often a key stat, and it was again last year, with the front three ranking eighth, first and second. The front three in 2021 ranked fourth, second and first and at least one placed player has ranked fourth or better for Scrambling in each of the last ten renewals, but I don't think we can class it as absolutely critical given Spaun only ranked 57^th three years ago and Conners, ranked only 70^th in 2019!

Spaun ranked fifth for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and only 23^rd for Strokes Gained: Approach three years ago but Connors ranked ninth and first in 2023, Bhatia ranked first for both, and the four winners before Spaun all ranked inside the top-four for those two metrics.

---

Is There an Angle In?

We don't appear to be short of correlating form and that was before the last three Valero Texas Open winners - Bhatia, Connors and Spaun - were all in-the-mix heading into round four of the Players Championship a couple of weeks ago.

Form at the Sony Open, the Puerto Rico Open, the World Wide Technology Championship, (when it was staged at Mayakoba) and the Procore Championship is all worthy of consideration but it's the last named that appears to correlate the best.

San Antonio winners, Brendon Steele and Jimmy Walker, have both won the Procore at Silverado, the 2018 Procore winner, Kevin Tway, has finished third here, and the 2014 Valero Texas open champ, Steven Bowditch, finished runner-up at Silverado in the same year.

Last year's Procore winner, Patton Kizzire finished ninth here on debut four years ago.

---

Is There an Identikit Winner?

When I first read about the course, back in 2010, it was said to have an Aussie feel about it. The bunkers certainly have that sand belt look about them and Steven Bowditch confirmed the link when he won in 2014, saying that the course was like a lot of courses back home so it's perhaps not surprising that we've had a couple of Aussies win but the locals have fared best. 

The 2021 winner, Jordan Spieth, is a Texan, the 2018 winner, Andrew Landry, was born in Port Neches, Texas, and he now lives in Austin, three of the top-four were Texans that year, and 11 of the last 27 Valero Texas Open winners have been Texans.

Spieth went of favourite four years ago, Scott was well-fancied in 2010, and so was Jimmy Walker in 2015. 

Last year's winner, Bhatia, was a 75.074/1 chance, the 2023 champ, Connors, the 2017 winner, Chappell, and the 2016 winner, Charley Hoffman, all went off at around 30.029/1 but the other seven course winners all went off at a triple-figure price so don't be discouraged if you fancy an outsider and if he's a Texan then that's all the better. 

Generally a 220.0219/1 chance at the off, Spaun was matched at a whopping 450.0449/1 when the market first opened and when he won here the first time in 2019, Conners was matched at a high of 420.0419/1 when he first entered the market after Monday qualifying. 

---

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

 

2024 - Akshay Bhatia - leading by four 1.341/3
2023 - Corey Conner- solo 2^nd trailing by one 2.89/5
2022 - J.J Spaun - tied for the lead 8.07/1
2021 - Jordan Spieth - tied for the lead 2.26/5
2020 - Event Cancelled (Covid)
2019 - Corey Conner- solo 2^nd trailing by one 5.04/1
2018 - Andrew Landry - tied for the lead 4.3100/30
2017 - Kevin Chappell - led by a stroke 5.49/2
2016 - Charley Hoffman - tied third trailing by two 8.07/1 

---

In-Play Tactics

The Lone Star State is notoriously windy so an ability to play well in breezy conditions is usually essential and we've seen some huge draw biases in the past.

Bhatia was the first wire-to-wire winner and the three winners before him were all inside the top five and within three strokes after every round. Being up with the pace appears almost essential here...

Connors sat first or second after every round in 2024 and in the 14 renewals here to date, 11 winners have been inside the first three places at halfway.

As many as nine of the 14 winners here have been leading or co-leading after three rounds so concentrating hard on the pacesetters makes sense.

The front nine is harder than the back-nine and the finish to the course offers up a few chances to score. The par five 14^th was the easiest hole again last year, for the ninth time in ten years, and the drivable par four 17^th ranked the third easiest. The par five 18^th tends to vary from year to year depending on how they set it up.

It averaged over-par in 2018, ranking as the 11^th easiest, but it was the second easiest hole last year.

---

Keep an eye on the Masters market

Anyone that plays well here will shorten up significantly for next week's US Masters so be prepared to jump on anyone you like for next week if they start nicely here.

---

Count on course specialist Connors

World number five, Ludvig Aberg, is the clear favourite but he's gone off the boil slightly since winning the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines, where he ranked first for the crucial stat here of Strokes Gained: Tee-to Green.

He finished 22^nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational after his victory in California but he missed the cut in the Players Championship last time out so it's no surprise to see him in the line-up ahead of next week's US Masters.

Having finished runner-up at Augusta last year on debut, despite sitting tied for 35^th and eight off the lead after round one, Aberg is a 20/121.00 shot to win his first major next week. This looks a great venue for him to warm up given he finished 14^th 12 months ago, two years after he'd missed the cut on debut.

That was his only start on the PGA Tour in 2022 and he's a completely different beast now. That's a performance to disregard and he's a worthy favourite this week.

Corey Conners has Augusta form figures reading MC-46-10-8-6-MC-35 and he's currently trading at 85.084/1 to win next week's US Masters.

The 33-year-old Canadian is in brilliant form this year, having finished third in the Arnold Palmer, sixth in the Players Championship and eighth in the Valspar Championship. He's not without a chance next week but he's far more likely to claim his third PGA Tour title here this week given this is where he gained his first two victories.

Conners has course form figures reading 26-1-14-35-1-25 and it's extremely likely that he'll contend again this time around given his current wellbeing.

In addition to backing Connors, I've also backed the prolific US Ryder Cup captain, Keegan Bradley, who's in search of his eighth PGA Tour title and his fourth in four years.

Bradley has course form figures reading 9-37-MC-45-23-8 and he arrives in San Antonio in fair form having finished fifth in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 20^th in the Players Championship.

In his seven starts this year he's ranked 14^th, 15^th ninth, 69^th, ninth, seventh and 30^th for SG: Tee-to-Green and he topped the SG: Approach rankings at the Arnold Palmer so he's a great fit statistically.

Bradley has finished second and sixth in the last two editions of the Sony Open so he has correlating course form in the bank too.

Bradley is generally a 25/126.00 chance on the High Street, so I was more than happy to back him at as high as 44.043/1 on the Exchange.

---

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

---

Read more golf tips, previews and analysis here

---