RSM Classic: The Punter's Preview

  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 4:00 min read
Read Steve's preview now

As the DP World Tour takes a week off ahead of the new season, the PGA Tour moves from Texas to Georgia for the final event of the PGA Tour Fall Series and our man's here with the lowdown ahead of Thursday's start... 


RSM Classic history

Originally staged at the Seaside Course alone, the RSM Classic, formerly known as the McGladrey Classic, became a two-course tournament 11 years ago, leading to an increased field size.

Competitors will play both the Plantation Course and the Seaside Course in rotation over the first two days, with the Seaside Course being used for both the third and fourth rounds after the cut.

The RSM Classic is the last of six FedEx Cup Fall Series events so it's the final opportunity for those flirting around the crucial 100 mark in the standings to secure their playing privileges for 2027.


Venue

Sea Island Resort (Seaside), Sea Island, Georgia.


Course details

Plantation Course

Par 72, 7,060

Originally designed by Walter Travis in 1926, the Plantation Course was renovated in 1998 by Rees Jones, who described the course as "parkland by the sea", and it was revamped again in 2019 by Love Golf Design.

Following the revamp seven years ago, the course is now 153 yards longer, quite a bit tougher, and the par five eighth hole was the only one unchanged from 2018.

Seaside Course

Par 70, 7,005 yards

Originally made up of two separate nine-hole courses - a 1929 Colt and Alison classic and a Joe Lee 1973 creation called the Marchside Nine, the Seaside Course was created in 1999 when Tom Fazio combined the two.

Positioned right on the southern tip of St. Simons Island this sea-side links style Bermuda grass course is susceptible to very windy conditions and quite different to the parkland style Plantation Course.

If the wind doesn't blow it's a very easy track. Sebastian Munoz opened up the 2021 renewal with a ten-under-par 60 and the 2023 winner, Ludvig Aberg, fired back-to-back 61s over the weekend to win by four.


Weather forecast


TV coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 13:30 on Thursday.


Last 10 winners with pre-event Betfair Exchange prices

2025 - Sami Valimaki -23 55.054/1
2024 - Maverick McNealy -16 42.041/1
2023 - Ludvig Aberg -29 14.013/1
2022 - Adam Svensson -19 160.0159/1
2021 - Talor Gooch -22 55.054/1
2020 - Robert Streb -19 (playoff) 1000.0999/1
2019 - Tyler Duncan (playoff) -19 450.0449/1
2018 - Charles Howell III (playoff) -19 70.069/1
2017 - Austin Cook -21 160.0159/1
2016 - Mackenzie Hughes -17 (playoff) 600.0599/1


A statistical look at the RSM Classic

The 2018 winner, Charles Howell, ranked 12th for Driving Distance and the 2024 winner, Maverick McNealy, ranked 20th but length off the tee is irrelevant.

Last year's victor, Sami Valimaki, ranked 46th for Driving Distance and the 2020 playoff protagonists, Robert Streb and Kevin Kisner, who had both won the title previously, ranked 51st and 52nd for DD.

Kisner ranked only 53rd for DD when he won here a in 2015, the 2022 winner, Adam Svensson, ranked 52nd and the 2016 winner, Mackenzie Hughes, was even shorter, ranking only 57th.

The 2017 winner, Austin Cook, was quite close to the tournament average when he ranked 39th, with the average DD ranking of the 16 winners to date being 34.38.

Accuracy is ordinarily more important than power from the tee here and Svenson ranked fifth for Driving Accuracy four years ago but last year's winner ranked 21st, the 2025 winner ranked 37th, the first two home in 2021 ranked tied 52nd for DA and the 2020 winner, Streb, only ranked 36th so it's really not worth getting hung up on the driving metrics. The average Driving Accuracy ranking of the 16 winners to date is 22.94.

And here are the average rankings for all the other key traditional stats for the 16 tournament winners to date.

Greens In Regulation 15.86
Scrambling 13.67
Putting Average 9.44
Putts per Round 12.14

The 2018 winner, Howell, skews the figures somewhat as his stats were far from typical. He gave it a good biff off the tee, found plenty of fairways and ranked number one for Greens In Regulation but his putting was very poor compared with most winners.

Howell pushed the putting averages up considerably given he ranked 70th for Putting Average and 54th for Putts per Round.

The 2015 and 2016 winners, Kisner and Hughes, both ranked number one for PA and both made more birdies than anyone else so it's very often a bit of a putting competition for those that can handle the Bermuda greens.

The first three home 12 months ago ranked sixth, nineth and first for Putting Average and Nico Echavarria, who finished tied for fourth, ranked second.


Correlating courses to consider

If you're looking for courses that correlate well with the Seaside Course, you're spoilt for choice but the Bermuda Championship, which is played at the par 71 Royal Port GC, is a decent place to start.

The 2023 Bermuda winner, Camilo Villegas, was beaten in a playoff here in 2016, the 2022 Bermuda winner, Seamus Power, finished fifth here after winning there, the 2019 winner in Bermuda, Brendon Todd, led here through three rounds, two weeks after winning there. And the 2020 Bermuda winner, Brian Gay, has finished fourth and third here previously.

There are also three par 70 Bermuda tracks that are well worth checking out...

Waialae Country Club, home of the Sony Open in Hawaii, Colonial Country Club, venue of the Charles Schwab Challenge (Kisner won the Charles Schwab Challenge in 2017 after winning here in 2015 and Chris Kirk doubled up in 2013 and 2015 too), and TPC Southwind, which hosts the FedEx St. Jude but the two I like best are the par 71 Harbour Town Links in neighbouring South Carolina, which has hosted the RBC Heritage since its inception in 1969, and PGA National - home of the Cognizant Classic since 2007.

The first three winners of this tournament all had a top six finish in the RBC Heritage, the 2013 winner, Kirk, won the 2023 Cognizant Classic, and an ever-increasing number of players have performed well in both this event and the Cognizant.

One of the four men to be beaten in the playoff here nine years ago, Camilo Villegas, romped to a five-stroke victory at the Cognizant Classic in 2010 and the surprise 2016 winner here, Mackenzie Hughes, who has form figures here reading 2-MC-2-5-51 over the last five years, was a huge outsider when finishing second to Sungjae Im in the Cognizant Classic in 2020.

This year's Cognizant Classic winner, Echavaria, has finished second and fourth here in the last two renewals.


From out-of-form locals to in-form maidens

The locals fared very well here in the earlier editions, and it used to be a great angle in.

Charles Howell is from Augusta, Georgia, Kisner went to University in Georgia, and he lives in the neighbouring state of South Carolina, the 2013 winner, Chris Kirk, who said he'd played the Seaside Course at least one hundred times previously when he won, and the inaugural winner, Heath Slocum, both live in Georgia.

A number of players that have gone close to winning also have a connection with the area but after the last few editions, it doesn't look like the strong angle in it once was and the problem with looking for the local angle is that you'll find plenty of players that it applies to.

The tournament host, Davis Love III, was instrumental in getting this event up and running and he's also been the driving force behind making Sea Island a place that golf professionals want to live and work so there's always plenty of inhabitants in the field each year.

In addition to the locals faring well in the early years, many of the winners were woefully out of form but that's all changed recently too, with four of the last five winners having been placed in at least one of their three previous starts.

Last week's venue was a Tom Fazio design with Bermuda greens so given the Seaside Course was created by Fazio, a decent performance in the inaugural Austin Championship last week could be a great pointer.

Here's a list of all the RSM Classic winners with their form in the lead up to the event.

2025 - Sami Valimaki 72-2-18
2024 - Maverick McNealy W-6-17
2023 - Ludvig Aberg 2-13-10
2022 - Adam Svensson 59-MC-39
2021 - Talor Gooch 5-11-60
2020 - Robert Streb 21-MC-55
2019 - Tyler Duncan - MC-18-47
2018- Charles Howell III - 5-61-MC
2017 - Austin Cook - 25-20-50
2016 - Mackenzie Hughes - 26-68-MC
2015 - Kevin Kisner - 25-37-2
2014 - Robert Streb - 9-31-10
2013 - Chris Kirk - 24-36-25
2012 - Tommy Gainey - 38-66-MC
2011 - Ben Crane - 51-10-MC
2010 - Heath Slocum - 65-50-45


Young maidens have dominated recently

Experienced pros bossed the tournament to begin with, but that's all changed recently.

At 27, Valimaki was the seventh winner in-a-row to be aged at 30 or below and he was the fifth winner in-a-row to be getting off the mark on the PGA Tour.

That's a strong trend now given he was the 11th first time winner in the last 14 years and had Patrick Rodgers won the playoff eight years ago instead of Howell, who was 39, 12 of the last 14 winners would have been winning for the first time on the PGA Tour.

Aberg went off favourite three years ago and having finished fourth here in 2014 and runner-up in his previous start, Kisner went off at around the 20/121.00 11 years ago but they're by far the shortest priced winners of the tournament to date.

Plenty of winners here go off at a triple figure price and four of the five playoff protagonists in 2016 were matched at huge prices. The winner, Mackenzie Hughes, was matched at 600.0599/1 before the off (and again in the playoff! - see below) Villegas was matched at 280.0279/1 before the off, Henrik Norlander was a 450.0449/1 shot and Blayne Barber was backed at 500.0499/1.

Svensson was nicely backed from 200.0199/1 to 160.0159/1 in 2022, the 2019 winner, Tyler Duncan, was a 450.0449/1 chance, and Streb went off at 1000.0999/1 five years ago so this is definitely a tournament in which you can back a few longshots.


Winner's position and Betfair Exchange price pre-round four

2025 - Sami Valimaki - led by two 2.6613/8
2024 - Maverick McNealy - tied for the lead 3.55/2
2023 - Ludvig Aberg - led by one stroke 1.9210/11
2022 - Adam Svensson - T3 - trailing by one 14.527/2
2021 - Talor Gooch - led by three 1.875/6
2020 - Robert Streb - led by three 2.447/5
2019 - Tyler Duncan T5 - trailing by four 48.047/1
2018 - Charles Howell III - led by one stroke 3.6553/20
2017 - Austin Cook - led by three 1.84/5
2016 - MacKenzie Hughes - led by one stroke 6.25/1


In-Play trends changing at Sea Island

With youth now triumphing over experience, the profile of the winners has changed here of late and so to have the in-running trends.

Valimaki was the fifth 54-hole leader or co-leader to win the RSM Classic in the last six years and Adam Svensson trailed by just a stroke after three rounds four years ago.

The last two winners have sat tied for fourth and tied for second after 36 holes and seven of the eight winners before that were in front at halfway, so it really has developed into a frontrunner's tournament, but it's still been an event that's produced plenty of drama over the years.

Svensson looked long odds-on to miss the cut after a slow start around the Plantation Course on Friday in 2022 and he was matched at 1000.0999/1 when over par for the tournament after turning for home in one-under-par on Friday, but he got his skates on - on the back-nine, coming home in 30 to climb to tied 43rd at halfway.

He then shot a sensational eight-under-par 62 on Saturday - the best round of the day by two strokes - to move up into a tie for third, before shooting the equal-best round on Sunday (64) to win by two.

Valimaki last year, Aberg in 2023 and Svensson 12 months earlier, were the only players to trade at odds-on but Luke Clanton was matched at a low of 1.674/6 before he finished tied second in 2024 and we usually see at least one player go odds-on and get beat.

As many as three men (Cameron Champ, Webb Simpson and Patrick Rodgers) went odds-on in 2018 before getting beat and four of the last 10 renewals have gone to extra time.

Although the recent winners have been up with the pace, we've seen winners come from four strokes back, five off the pace (twice), and from seven strokes back with a round to go so an off the pace winner is definitely possible.

Ben Crane came from five shots back to win in 2012 and a year later, Tommy Gainey hit 60 in round four to win by a stroke, having trailed by seven after 54 holes!

Robert Streb began the fourth round trailing by five strokes in 2014 and trading at 110.0109/1 before he went on to win for the first time and 12 months earlier, Tim Clark very nearly did the same thing. He also began round four trading at a triple figure price and five off the lead and he was matched at just 4.03/1 after he'd shot a final round of 62 (one better than Streb and Crane). He would have made a playoff if Chris Kirk hadn't birdied the penultimate hole and we very nearly witnessed another miraculous winner eight years ago too...

Patrick Rodgers was absolutely miles back before getting into the playoff. The pre-event 160.0159/1 chance was matched at 1000.0999/1 when he trailed by 12 at halfway and he was still five back with a round to go after shooting 61 in round three. A 62 on Sunday saw him get into the playoff.

A tight and dramatic finish can be expected but I'll be amazed if we get anything quite as bizarre as the finish to the 2016 tournament which went to a five-man playoff.

As darkness fell, Billy Horschel eliminated himself on Sunday evening with an unbelievably bad putt on the 18th green before the Monday finish saw a simply crazy conclusion.

Incredibly, Hughes won the event at the third extra hole, despite never finding the par three 17th green. All four remaining playoff protagonists missed the green completely and Hughes was somehow matched at 600.0599/1 when his second shot still failed to make the putting surface, but his three rivals all failed to get-up-and-down for par after the Canadian holed out for a three from just off the green.


Bookmark Betting.Betfair for golf betting tips every week


Steven Rawlings

Steve has been penning golf previews for Betfair since 2008. Steve is a professional punter who specialises in golf betting and trading in-play on the Betfair Exchange.

Discover the latest articles