Steve Rawlings' Long Odds Golf Tips: Three to back at huge prices in Texas

This week's picks all on PGA Tour

As highlighted in the preview, the cream rises to the top year after year at the DP World Tour's season finale - the DP World Tour Championship.

Away from the head of the market, I was mildly tempted by the Open winner, Ryan Fox, the recent European Masters winner, Thriston Lawrence, and even the Austrian veteran, Bernd Wiesberger.

Fox is clearly a fine links and desert golf exponent. He's won both the Open and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and he won the Ras Al Khaimah Classic by five strokes back in 2022, but he has never bettered 19^th in four trips to the Earth Course, and that's a bit off-putting.

Lawrence, who finished fifth here in 2023, is a huge price at in excess of 200/1201.00 on the Betfair Exchange given he won as recently as September, but he's not putting well, and that's a sizable negative in an event where how you perform on the dancefloors is key.

After his top-five finish in Abu Dhabi last week, and with a top-four finish here on his CV, albeit 10 years ago, the 41-year-old, Wiesberger, is fairly priced at 90.089/1 on the Betfair Exchange but I'm happy to concentrate on this week's PGA Tour event - the inaugural edition of the Austin Championship, where I've picked out three long-shots that are all looking to win for a third time on the PGA Tour.

Austin Championship Bet 1 - Back Austin Eckroat @ 90.089/1

As highlighted in the Austin Championship preview, with just two events left on the PGA Tour's FedEx Fall Series, time is running out for those outside the top 100 in the rankings to keep their playing privileges for next season.

Those ranked between 101 and 125 will have conditional status next year but being in the top 100 and being able to decide where and when you play is far more preferable so I've picked out three former winners in search of a good week or two to make it into the top 100, starting with the two-time PGA Tour winner, Austin Eckroat.

The 27-year-old first caught the eye on the PGA Tour when he finished runner-up to Jason Day in the Byron Nelson in Texas in 2023 and less than a year later, he won his first PGA Tour title at the Cognizant Classic, around PGA National in Florida, a course designed by Tom Fazio, who's responsible for this week's venue in Austin - the Fazio Canyons Golf Course at Omni Barton Creek Resort & Spa.

Eckroat's second victory came in last week's event - the World Wide Technology Championship - two years ago and it's a little surprising to see how far he's fallen since.

He won both those titles impressively and he looked likely to kick on and become a force to be reckoned with so it's a little bit baffling to see him here, sitting at 123^rd in the standings and fighting to keep his card just two years later.

Eckroat put himself on to the fringes of contention last week with rounds of 68 and 66 over the first two days but after sitting sixth at halfway, a 72 on Saturday saw him slide down the leaderboard.

He signed the event off with a solid 67 on Sunday and that may just be the sort of platform he needs to build on.

Austin Championship Bet 2 - Back Cam Davis @ 230.0229/1

The 31-year-old Aussie, Cam Davis, has also won twice on the PGA Tour. He won the Rocket Classic in both 2021 and 2024, but he too sits outside that all-important top-100.

Languishing in 168^th place, Davis has had a very poor year, but he's been showing signs of life of late, making the cut in each of his last three starts, and throwing in a couple of very low rounds.

Davis finished 11^th in the Bermuda Championship at the start of the month, where he posted a bogey-free seven-under-par 64 in round two and he signed off the Mexico Open the following week with an eight-under-par 63 that equalled the best round of the day.

He opened last week's World Wide Technology Championship with rounds of 68, 68 and 67 to sit tied for 13^th with a round to go before a disappointing 73 saw him slump to a tie for 42^nd but he's shown enough in the last three weeks to suggest he's a fair price at more than 200/1201.00 on the Betfair Exchange.

Davis has performed nicely in his homeland on Bermuda greens and he has top-seven finishes on Bermuda at the Players Championship, the Wyndham Championship, the St Jude and the Heritage so the putting surfaces should suit him nicely enough.

Austin Championship Bet 2 - Back Nick Dunlap @ 520.0519/1

Seeing all these youngsters contending and winning on the PGA Tour over the last five months shows the game is in great shape.

In recent months, there have been breakthrough wins for Jackson Koivun, Michael Thorbjornsen, Michael Brennan, and Blades Brown, last week in Mexico, and the 23-year-old, Ben James, who lost in the playoff to Brown on Sunday, is knocking on the door too but it's hard to believe that he's older than a two-time PGA Tour winner, that's in danger of losing his card.

Nick Dunlap, who's only 22, burst onto the scene with victory on Bermuda greens at the American Express in January 2024 when still an amateur.

He followed that with another win at the Barracuda Championship in July '24 but he heads into the last two FedEx Fall series events languishing in 165^th on the standings.

It's hard to believe how far he's fallen in such a short space of time but it would be ridiculous to give up on someone so young, and he's demonstrated twice in his last four starts that a return to form may not be far away.

He sat second after the opening round of the Utah Championship in October and second after a 64 on Thursday last week in Mexico.

His form is very inconsistent, as perhaps it should be for a 22-year-old who's wondering why he can't replicate his form of just two years ago, but he's fighting hard as the season draws to a close and importantly, he's putting very nicely.

He's put up ordinary form figures reading 76-61-24-MC-42 since he missed the cut at the Wyndham Championship in August, but he's ranked sixth and fourth for Putting Average on the last two occasions he's made it through to the weekend.

He's too young to give up on just yet and he's too big on the Betfair Exchange this week at odds in excess of 500.0499/1.

As always, I'll be looking to trade either of the three picks in-running if their odds hit single figure prices on the Betfair Exchange and I'll be taking plenty of profit should any of them trade at odds-on at any point.

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