Mexico Open: The Punter's Preview

  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 4:00 min read
Read Steve's preview now

The PGA Tour moves on from Bermuda for the first of two consecutive events in Mexico - the fifth edition of the Mexico Open - and our man has the lowdown ahead of Thursday's start here...


Mexico Open tournament history

The Mexico Open has been in existence since it debuted at Chapultepec (the venue for the now defunct WGC - Mexico Championship) in 1944.

Having previously featured on the Tour de las Américas, the Korn Ferry Tour, and even the European HotelPlanner Tour, it became a PGA Tour Latinoamérica event in 2013 and it was elevated to an official PGA Tour event for the first time four years ago.

After the first two renewals were staged at the end of April, the next two editions were in February so this is the first time the tournament has been staged in 20 months.


Venue

The Norman Signature Course, Vidanta Vallarta, Vallarta, Mexico.


Course details

Par 71, 7, 337 yards 

Although situated around a mile from the Pacific Ocean and the Banderas Bay, the Norman Signature Course doesn't look like a typical coastal track.

The 2015 Greg Norman design, which staged the event for the first time four years ago, winds along the banks of the Ameca River providing views of the Sierra Madres from every hole.

It's a long, flat track with wide fairways and very little rough.

The entire course is blanketed by Platinum paspalum and water is in-play on as many as 14 holes.

The greens are undulating and protected by large bunkers, of which there are 106 in total.

Having been set to 12 on the Stimpmeter for the first two editions staged in April, the green speeds were reduced to 11 when the event was staged in February.

Indigenous trees, native grasses and jungle surround the course layout which is reached via the world's longest golf cart suspension bridge spanning the Ameca River from Nayarit to Jalisco. 


Weather Forecast


TV coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 20:00 on Thursday.


First four event winners with pre-event Betfair Exchange prices

2022 - Jon Rahm -17 6.05/1
2023 - Tony Finau -24 9.417/2
2024 - Jake Knapp -19 60.059/1
2025 - Brain Campbell -20 600.0599/1 (playoff)


A statistical look at the Mexico Open?

Here are the top three and ties from the first four editions with traditional stats.

(Key: DA - Driving Accuracy; DD - Driving Distance; GIR - Greens in Regulation; SC - Scrambling; PA - Putting Average)

2022
Jon Rahm -17 DA 15 DD 1 GIR 7 SC 17 PA 32
Tony Finau -16 DA 47 DD 38 GIR 1 SC 31 PA 35
Kurt Kitayama -16 DA 21 DD 8 GIR 11 SC 57 PA 5
Brandon Wu -16 DA 10 DD 10 GIR 5 SC 7 PA 53

2023
Tony Finau -24 DA 11 DD 11 GIR 3 SC 2 PA 6
Jon Rahm -21 DA 37 DD 14 GIR 4 SC 53 PA 3
Brandon Wu -19 DA 1 DD 36 GIR 45 SC 23 PA 1

2024
Jake Knapp -19 DA 28 DD 2 GIR 6 SC N/A PA 10
Sami Valimaki -17 DA 37 DD 27 GIR 40 SC 25 PA 2
Stephan Jaeger -14 DA 50 DD 1 GIR 27 SC 23 PA 6
Justin Lower -14 DA 22 DD 33 GIR 2 SC 35 PA 28
C.T Pan -14 DA 15 DD 20 GIR 30 SC 22 PA 40

2025
Brian Campbell -20 DA 5 DD 73 GIR 17 SC 19 PA 6
Aldrich Potgieter -20 DA 76 DD 5 GIR 22 SC 28 PA 5
Isiah Salinda -19 DA 22 DD 16 GIR 22 SC 3 PA 10

And here are the top three and ties from the first four editions with strokes gained stats.

(Key: Tee - Strokes Gained: Off the Tee; App - Strokes Gained: Approach; ATG - Strokes Gained: Around the Tee; T2G - Strokes Gained: Tee to Green; P - Strokes Gained: Putting)

2022
Jon Rahm -17 Tee 2 App 30 ATG 22 T2G 3 P 18
Tony Finau -16 Tee 17 App 2 ATG 5 T2G 1 P 60
Kurt Kitayama -16 Tee 11 App 18 ATG 39 T2G 10 P 12
Brandon Wu -16 Tee 7 App 8 ATG 70 T2G 14 P 7

2023
Tony Finau -24 Tee 2 App 8 ATG 13 T2G 1 P 8
Jon Rahm -21 Tee 1 App 32 ATG 39 T2G 6 P 2
Brandon Wu -19 Tee 7 App 59 ATG 5 T2G 14 P 1

2024
Jake Knapp -19 Tee 11 App 1 ATG 41 T2G 1 P 17
Sami Valimaki -17 Tee 19 App 12 ATG 22 T2G 8 P 9
Stephan Jaeger -14 Tee 22 App 33 ATG 13 T2G 17 P 13
Justin Lower -14 Tee 25 App 13 ATG 21 T2G 11 P 18
C.T Pan -14 Tee 7 App 48 ATG 4 T2G 10 P 19

2025
Brian Campbell -20 Tee 32 App 4 ATG 2 T2G 1 P 33
Aldrich Potgieter -20 Tee 3 App 46 ATG 50 T2G 18 P 1
Isiah Salinda -19 Tee 13 App 11 ATG 28 T2G 8 P 10

This is a long track with very little rough, so the big hitters are most definitely advantaged.

All bar one of the par fours are lengthy and the only short one, the drivable seventh, which has been the easiest hole on the course over the last four years, also favours those that can give it a good whack off the tee.

Brian Campbell got the better of the huge hitting South African, Aldrich Potgieter, in extra time last year and he only ranked 73rd for Driving Distance but Potgieter ranked fifth and the worst any of the first three winners ranked for DD was 11th.

The first two victors ranked second for SG: Off the Tee, Jake Knapp ranked 11th for that stat two years ago and the two playoff protagonists ranked 32nd and third.

All four winners have ranked highly for Greens In Regulation but the key stat is clearly Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.  

Jon Rahm ranked third when he won the inaugural edition in 2022 and the last three winners have all ranked first.


Correlating courses

Rahm compared this track to Kapalua in Hawaii, where The Sentry used to be staged each January and that makes a lot of sense.

Like Kapalua, Vidanta is wide-open and exposed but so far, Rahm is the only player to shine at both venues.

Greg Norman is also responsible for a couple of other courses used on the PGA Tour - the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, which hosts the Valero Texas Open each year, and he also designed El Camaleon, which used to host next week's event - the World Wide Technology Championship.

Like the Norman Signature Course here, El Camaleon is a paspalum track situated on the Mexican coast and there are numerous examples of form crossing over between the two layouts but El Camaleon is no longer the host venue for the WWT Championship.

The WWT Championship has been staged at the Tiger Woods designed El Cardonal at Diamante layout in Mexico for the last three years but that too correlates nicely anyway.

The Puerto Rico Open and the Corales Puntacana R & C Championship in the Dominican Republic, are also both played out on paspalum tracks, and all three events have provided clues for this event.

Tony Finau only played in the Puerto Rico Open once, and he won it, and Brandon Wu, who event figures here reading 2-3-13, has form in Puerto Rico reading 7-3-42.

Stephan Jaeger, who finished tied for third here in 2024 and tied sixth last year, led the Corales Puntacana at halfway in 2016 and after round one in 2021, and Joel Dahman, who finished tied for sixth on debut last year, won the Corales Puntacana in 2021 and really should have won it again last year after he'd led by three with 18 to play.

And Justin Lower, who finished alongside Jaeger here two years ago, finished fourth at the Corales in last year.

Lower also finished second to Austin Eckroat in the WWT Championship in 2024 and Ben Griffin won last year's edition after finishing fourth here so that event may well be the one that correlates best in the fullness of time.

El Cardonal at Diamante has the exact same strain of paspalum as that laid down at the Norman Signature Course and both courses provide plenty of space of the tee.

Sami Valimaki, who traded at odds-on during round four here two years ago (1.855/6), had won the Qatar Masters on the DP World Tour four months earlier and that's an event staged at an exposed layout with paspalum greens so that's another venue to consider.


Course debutants have prospered lately

The first three home last year were all playing in the event for the first time and although Patrick Rodgers finished sixth, having finished 10th in the first two editions here, the 2024 leaderboard was also largely dominated by tournament debutants too, but we can't ignore how well course form stood up here three years ago.

The first three home in 2022 filled the first three places again in 2023 and Cameron Champ, who finished sixth four years ago arrived in Mexico in awful form in 2023, having missed six cuts in-a-row, but he was on the fringes of contention over the weekend and but for a poor finish, he'd have been placed again.

Champ sat fifth with three holes to play but he bogeyed both 16 and 17 before birdying the last and he eventually finished tied for eighth.


Winner's position and Betfair Exchange prices pre round four

2022 - Jon Rahm led by two 1.684/6
2023 - Tony Finau led by two 1.9620/21
2024 - Jake Knapp led by four 1.321/3
2025 - Brian Campbell - solo second, trailing by one 3.613/5


In-running trends at Vidanta Vallarta

The first three winners have all been in front after rounds two and three and had Potgieter won the playoff last year, it would have been four from four.

Campbell was inside the top four places all week long so up with the pace has been vital at all four previous renewals, but we can't rule out an off the pace winner here.

As highlighted above, Valimaki traded at odds-on two years ago, having trailed by four with a round to go, Rahm was matched at 1.758/11 when he hit the front during round three when defending the title in 2023, having sat tied for 12th and six back after two rounds, and in the inaugural edition, Finau and Wu made up a lot of ground to finish tied second, alongside Kurt Kitayama.

They were beaten by just a stroke having trailed by nine in a tie for 47th at halfway and having sat tied seventh and seven back with a round to go.

If you're betting in running, there's a tough stretch around the turn (holes eight, nine and ten) and the 16th and 17th are both tricky but the par five finishing hole has averaged only 4.53, 4.59, 4.47 and 4.41 in the last four years.


Bookmark Betting.Betfair for golf betting tips every week


Steven Rawlings

Steve has been penning golf previews for Betfair since 2008. Steve is a professional punter who specialises in golf betting and trading in-play on the Betfair Exchange.

Discover the latest articles