The Punter's US Masters In-Play Blog: Bryson the value ahead of round four

• Rory leads by two with 18 to play

• Stats suggest it's a two-man race now

• Bryson added to the portfolio 

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11:45 - April 13, 2025

After becoming the first man in history to begin a round at Augusta with six threes, and having shot the best round of the day for the second day in-row, another six-under-par 66, Rory McIlroy leads the US Masters by two with 18 holes to play. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:30.

Rory McIlroy -12 1.635/8
Bryson DeChambeau -10 3.929/10
Corey Conners -8 20.019/1
Ludvig Aberg -6 38.037/1
Patrick Reed -6 85.084/1
Scottie Scheffler -5 42.041/1
Shane Lowry -5 130.0129/1
Jason Day -5 160.0159/1
Justin Rose -5 260.0259/1
-4 and 320.0319/1 bar

Given 28 US Masters winners in-a-row have been within four of the lead with a round to go, it's highly unlikely that anyone outside the front three can still win, and Corey Connors, alone in third, looks up against it.

Danny Willett, who benefited from Jordan Spieth's dramatic collapse in 2016, having sat three off the lead through 54 holes, is the only winner in the last 11 years not to be sitting first or second after three rounds and Charl Schwartzel, in 2011, is the only man to win from as far as four strokes back since 1987.

Leading by two, McIlroy is clearly the man to beat, and he has a 62% strike rate when holding a clear advantage through 54 holes.

On the three occasions that he's led by exactly two strokes he's gone on to win twice and six of the last eight US Masters winners have been in front with a round to go.

There are plenty of positives for Rory and even if I hadn't backed him before the off, I'd be cheering him on today but the only logical play with 18 holes remaining is Bryson DeChambeau at almost 3/14.00.

Rory can draw on the fact that he's just shot two terrific rounds of golf in two different fashions. He started slowly on Friday, and he started faster than anyone ever has yesterday.

The presence of his phycologist, Bob Rotella, has clearly helped him this week and he's playing the best golf of his career but he's going to be under so much pressure today, and it might just take its toll.

It's 11 years since he won his last major and he's also bidding to become just the sixth man in history, and the first since Tiger Woods in 2000, to complete the career Grand Slam.

In addition to having to handle the pressure, his lead of two strokes is not as commanding as it first appears.

There have been 186 occasions that someone has led a 72-hole event on the PGA Tour by two strokes with a round to go this century and only 84 went on to win. That's a strike-rate of just 45.1%.

At Augusta, since Sandy Lyle converted from two in front way back in 1988, six men have led the US Masters by two with 18 to play and Trevor Immelmann, who won wire-to-wire in 2008, is the only man to get over the line.

Ray Floyd (1990), Fred Couples (1998), Jeff Maggert (2003), Francesco Molinari (2019) and Brooks Koepka (2023) all failed.

Rory's playing magnificently and DeChambeau has had to scramble incredibly well just to keep him in his sights but he's a proven major championship performer and given the stats, he's the value with 18 to play at almost 3/14.00.

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11:10 - April 12, 2025

History had suggested that Rory McIlroy had too much to do after his scruffy finish to round one at the 89^th edition of the US Masters, as he bids to complete the career Grand Slam, but a sensational bogey-free, six-under-par 66 has propelled him back up into a tie for third and to the head of the market. Here's the latest state of play with 36 holes to play with prices to back at 10:50.

Justin Rose -8 10.519/2
Bryson DeChambeau -7 5.85/1
Rory McIlroy -6 4.67/2
Corey Conners -6 17.533/2
Scottie Scheffler -5 5.69/2
Shane Lowry -5 18.017/1
Tyrrell Hatton -5 24.023/1
Matt McCarty -5 140.0139/1
Viktor Hovland -4 36.035/1
Jason Day -4 50.049/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -4 110.0109/1
Collin Morikawa -3 32.031/1
Ludvig Aberg -3 34.033/1
Hideki Matsuyama -3 46.045/1
Patrick Reed -3 100.099/1
Sungjae Im -3 150.0149/1
Xander Schauffele -2 75.074/1
Tommy Fleetwood -2 130.0129/1
-2 and 240.0239/1 bar

With the wind picking up late in the day yesterday, the afternoon starters averaged almost three-quarters of a shot more than the early starters and there was an overall draw bias in favour of those drawn PM-AM of 0.83 of a stroke.

Scottie Scheffler was repeatedly perplexed by the wind and Corey Connors is the only player in the top four that began the event on Thursday morning.

Moving forward, it doesn't appear as if we'll witness much more than the odd zephyr over the weekend but the rain that fell overnight on Thursday will be the last that we'll see this week and the course is going to just get harder and faster.

The leaderboard is jampacked with quality and we're in for a real treat. And maybe the first dramatic finish since Tiger Woods won the last of his five titles back in 2019. Fingers crossed.

Up with the pace is the place to be at Augusta and Justin Rose backers will be delighted to read that seven of the last 11 winners have been leading or tied for the lead through 36 holes.

As many as 37 of the last 38 Masters champions have been T10 or better after the first two rounds and only eight winners in the entire history of the US Masters have been outside the top ten at the halfway stage.

Charl Schwartzel, who sat tied for 12th and six off the lead 14 years ago, is the only winner to be outside the top ten at this stage since Jack Nicklaus way back in 1986.

Schwartzel famously birdied the final four holes to win in 2011 and Tiger Woods, in 2006, is the only other winner this century to be more than four shots back at halfway, but he only sat third. Chris DiMarco, who Tiger beat in a playoff, had led by four at halfway.

Those stats paint a bit of a bleak picture for anyone below Jason Day, but it hasn't put me off backing the 2021 winner, Hideki Matsuyama at 48.047/1.

The Japanese is more than capable of making up the ground over the weekend given he won the Genesis Invitational at Riviera last year by three strokes having trailed by six with 18 to play!

Like seven of the last ten US Masters winners, he's already bagged a win this season, having won The Sentry in January, and he's a sporting price for a former winner just five off the lead.

Matsuyama is my only play at halfway but that's only because I've already backed Day.

With a high ball flight made for the firm fast conditions at Augusta, the veteran Aussie finished second on debut way back in 2011. He withdrew injured (a regular occurrence with Day) in 2012, but he was third in 2013 and fifth in 2019, so he has a wealth of course experience.

Other than Rory (who's made two double- bogeys but no bogeys), Day was the last man to record a bogey at this year's renewal when he missed from around 12 feet on the 18^th late yesterday and he's being underrated at 50.049/1.

Back to the market leaders and if absolutely forced to name the winner at this stage it would be the current third favourite, Bryson DeChambeau.

Having gone from unlikable upstart to an impossible not to like, engaging and interesting individual, DeChambeau was a picture of serenity after his second round yesterday and he looks to be in a fabulous place mentally heading into the weekend.

He's really starting to get to grips with Augusta, playing the layout his way to suit his game, and it's very easy to envisage him slipping on the famous Green Jacket but I just wonder if his game is quite sharp enough this time around.

Rory was superb yesterday, he now heads the market and I'm obviously happy to be on from the off.

Like almost every golf fan across the globe, I'd love to see him kick on and complete the major set, and the stars do still look to be aligned but it will be hard to back up yesterday's brilliance (the lowest round of the day) and the crushing weight of history is still bearing down.

Scheffler is the obvious danger to the market leader, but he looked out of sorts after he'd birdied the eighth yesterday and like Rory, he's under immense pressure to do something so few have done.

Only three players have defended the title at Augusta and Jack Nicklaus is the only man to win three titles in four years. It's a big ask and it looked like the pressure was beginning to tell on the back nine yesterday.

There's a very strong chance that Rose will be too defensive today, but Corey Connors is an interesting candidate.

He won't hole many putts but he's an elite ball striker and if he can keep the nerves at bay (by no means a certainty) he could be there or thereabouts after round three.

Shane Lowry has been well-supported since he signed for his four-under-par 68 yesterday but he's too short for me now and it's very difficult to imagine one of the two debutants in-the-mix, Matt McCarty or Rasmus Hojgaard, winning given we haven't seen a first timer win since 1979.

Back-to-back bogeys on 16 and 17 yesterday have severely dented the chances of in-play pick, Tyrrell Hatton, and the missed par putt at 17 is hard to believe no matter how many times you watch it, but he's not out of it yet and he looks better value than Lowry given they're on the same score.

Tyrrell Hatton misses a putt from TWO FEET pic.twitter.com/KfkQN0xEtC

-- Sky Sports Golf (@SkySportsGolf) April 11, 2025

Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg and Collin Morikawa are the only other three players trading at less than 50.049/1 and of the three, Hovland is the most tempting but I'm happy to play just Matsuyama and see what today brings.

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09:55 - April 11, 2025

After three solid par saves and back-to-back birdies on eight and nine at Augusta, the pre-event 8.415/2 chance, Rory McIlroy, made the turn at the 89^th edition of the US Masters in three-under and after negotiating Amen Corner unscathed, the Northern Irishman looked all set for a charge to the clubhouse.

A two-putt birdie at the par five 13^th saw him move alongside the defending champ and world number one, Scottie Scheffler, who was in the clubhouse on -4, and when he stood over a birdie putt from what looked like about six feet on 14 (although the tracker said eight), he was matched at just 3.211/5 to finally complete the career Grand Slam.

He didn't look to have hit a poor putt, but it just slipped by the hole and three holes later; he'd positioned himself firmly behind the eight ball!

Minutes after Patrick Cantlay had twice chipped into the water at the front of the green on the par five 15^th, Rory hit his third shot into the water from around the same spot behind the green and that led to a double-bogey seven.

That was disappointing enough but after a par at the par three 16^th, he hit a terrible second shot on 17 that went long and after a scruffy chip up to the green, a three-putt followed and another double-bogey went down on the card.

It was a terrible finish in benign late afternoon conditions and in stark contrast, the likes of Ludvig Aberg, Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland and Akshay Bhatia all played the back-nine nicely to put themselves in contention.

Here's the 18-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:50.

Justin Rose -7 9.28/1
Scottie Scheffler -4 3.711/4
Ludvig Aberg -4 7.413/2
Corey Conners -4 2019/1
Bryson DeChambeau -3 11.010/1
Tyrrell Hatton -3 32.031/1
Akshay Bhatia -2 50.049/1
Jason Day -2 65.064/1
Aaron Rai -2 140.0139/1
Harris English -2 150.0149/1
Viktor Hovland -1 50.049/1
Shane Lowry -1 50.049/1
Min Woo Lee -1 65.064/1
Cam Smith -1 70.069/1
Patrick Reed -1 120.0119/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -1 200.0199/1
Denny McCarthy -1 220.0219/1
Sungjae Im -1 220.0219/1
Brian Harman -1 240.0239/1
Daniel Berger -1 250.0249/1
Davis Thompson -1 380.0379/1
Michael Kim -1 380.0379/1
Max Greyserman -1 710.0709/1
Bubba Watson -1 820.0819/1
Matt McCarty -1 920.0919/1
Fred Couples -1 1000.0999/1
Rory McIlroy Ev 14.527/2
Collin Morikawa Ev 40.039/1
Joaquin Niemann Ev 85.084/1
Even Par and 90.089/1 bar

If very recent history is to be repeated, we can look no further than the front four on the leaderboard after round one.

The last five US Masters winners were inside the top three places after round one and if we want to consider the stats rigidly, we should dismiss everyone listed on -2 or worse as 18 of the last 19 Masters winners were within four shots of the lead after the opening round.

Despite the numbers, it's hard to think it's a six-man race already though, especially when it's highly likely the round one specialist, Justin Rose, is likely to come back to the field today and that there are 26 players listed above positioned at tied 11^th or better.

This is the fifth time that Rose has led or co-led after round one and his finishing positions when he's previously led are listed below.

2004 - Led by two - finished T22
2007 - T1 - finished T5
2008 - T1 - finished T36
2015 - Led by four - finished solo 7th

As many as 11 of the previous 24 players to lead a major by three after round one (since the first US Masters in 1934) have gone on to win (44%) suggesting Rose is a great price at around 8/19.00 but his age is against him if the below stat is anything to go by.

Since the first Masters in 1934, there have been 80 other instances of a player age 40 or older leading or co-leading after round 1 of a men's major.

76 of them shot a higher score in the 2nd round. 77 of them did not go on to win.

-- Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) April 11, 2025

Scottie Scheffler is clearly the man to beat now but he made a couple of huge putts yesterday and I'm not in a rush to back him at less than 3/14.00 given the weight of history is against him.

Scheffler is bidding to become just the second man in history to win the US Masters for the third time in four years and the fourth to make a successful title defence.

Aberg finished round one superbly, playing the last seven holes in four-under-par, but he missed his last two cuts and last year's runner-up looks short enough at just a shade over 6/17.00.

Bryson DeChambeau commands respect but he's led here twice previously after round one before finishing 29^th and sixth and the fact that he racked up four bogeys yesterday is slightly disconcerting.

Next in the betting is Rory and I suspect he'll rally today but he's a poor price at 14.013/1 given there are 26 players ahead of him and it's 20 years since the winner (Tiger Woods) failed to break par on day one.

This is a tricky looking leaderboard, and I wouldn't put anyone off throwing a few pounds at one or two of the players that shot -1 or better yesterday at some huge prices but the two I like at the prices available this morning are Tyrrell Hatton and Jason Day.

Hatton broke 70 for the first time in round one yesterday and he's simply too big at anything over 30.029/1.

The world number 18 is a mercurial character, but he knows how to win, as demonstrated at the Dubai Desert Classic in January.

Although I only put up Patrick Reed (shot -1 yesterday) as a selection in the Find Me a 100 Winner column, fellow experienced Augusta specialists, Phil Mickelson, Rose and Jason Day were all mentioned, and I'm happy to top-up on Day this morning at 70.069/1.

Having been a 100.099/1 chance for most of the week, the Aussie drifted wildly before the off, out to as big as 170.0169/1 and he's been matched in running at as high as 340.0339/1 but he's in the argument after yesterday's opening 70.

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20:55 - April 10, 2025

The defending champ, Scottie Scheffler, was matched at as low as 3.412/5 to win the US Masters when he hit the par five 13^th green in two but a three-putt followed, along with a par on the par five 15^th, and he finished up posting a very neat and tidy bogey-free four under-par 68.

After his birdie at four, he holed another birdie bomb on the par three 16^th so one could argue he made a couple of putts he wouldn't have expected to make but it was an impressive and stress-free start to his defence.

As highlighted in the Find Me a 100 Winner column, Justin Rose was on the radar before the off and this year he's looking to end day one of the US Masters in front for a fifth time.

He's currently six-under-par through 12, two clear of the rest, and he's been matched at as short as 1.75/7 in the 1st Round Leader market.

Rory McIlroy started slightly scruffily but after great par saving putts at two, four and five, and birdies at three and eight, he's started nicely enough.

I'll be back in the morning but it's worth highlighting now, for anyone playing in-running, that up with the pace is the place to be here.

Tiger Woods sat tied for 11th and four off the lead after the opening round in 2019 but that's the only time any winner has sat outside the top ten after round one since he sat tied for 33rd and seven off the lead 20 years ago. And 2005 was the last time the winner failed to break par on day one.

Tiger and Phil Mickelson have repeatedly bucked the trends at Augusta and they're the only two men to win the event having finished day one outside of the top 10 since Mark O'Meara won from tied 25th and five off the pace 27 years ago.

The last 19 winners, and 72 of the 88 previous champions, were all inside the top 11 after 18 holes so we need to be concentrating on the leaders.

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17:05 - April 10, 2025

The 89^th edition of the US Masters is underway and Wolverhampton's Aaron Rai, who's playing Augusta for the first time, is the early pacesetter.

The pre-event 310.0309/1 chance, who was matched for plenty at in excess of 400.0399/1, has already been matched at as low as 25.024/1 and at as low as 5.59/2 to lead after round one but there's obviously a very long way to go.

The well-fancied pair of Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas have started fairly slowly but the defending champ, Scottie Scheffler, has started nicely, thanks to a birdie at the par five second and this monster birdie putt at the fourth.

62 feet for birdie. Scheffler reaches two under par for the Tournament. #themasters pic.twitter.com/4McwujgliJ

-- The Masters (@TheMasters) April 10, 2025

LIV star, Joaquin Niemann, opened up with birdies at one, two and four and he's been matched at as low as 11.010/1 already but none of my three pre-event picks have started yet and Rory McIlroy tees off at 18:12 UK Time. 

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Pre-event Picks:
Rory McIlroy @ 8.615/2
Brooks Koepka @ 44.043/1
Sepp Straka @ 90.089/1 

In-Play Picks:
Tyrrell Hatton @ 34.033/1
Jason Day @ 70.069/1
Hideki Matsuyama @ 48.047/1
Bryson DeChambeau @ 3.929/10

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections here

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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Now read more US Masters previews and tips here.