The Punter's Open In-Play Blog: Brilliant Billy battles to the front in brutal conditions

• Leader a fair price with 18 to play

• 24 players within six of the lead

• Lowry backed for a bounce back win

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10:40 - July 21, 2024 - Tight at the top at Troon

Having led by two at the halfway stage of the Open Championship, Shane Lowry's lead was extended to three when the two men tied for second after 36 holes, Justin Rose and Dan Brown, both bogeyed the first hole yesterday and he led by three again after a birdie at the fifth but that was as good as it got for the 2019 winner, who's been matched at as low as 2.486/4.

The 37-year-old missed a great chance to birdie the short par four seventh, but he missed that before double-bogeying the short but tricky par three eighth and after missing another chance at the 10^th, the back-nine was a real slog. He went on to post 40!

Having teed off more than three hours before Lowry and Brown and having enjoyed the best of the weather early on, South Africa's Thriston Lawrence posted a brilliant six-under-par 65 and that was matched by America's Sam Burns.

Russell Henley bounced back after a poor second round in the worst of the weather on Friday afternoon with a 66 and as the day wore on, those three continued to climb the leaderboard.

Lowry was far from the only late starter to struggle in the rain and with a round to go, the leaderboard looks very different to how it appeared at halfway. Here's the state of play with prices to back at 10:30.

Billy Horschel -4 7.26/1
Xander Schauffele -3 5.04/1
Justin Rose -3 10.09/1
Sam Burns -3 11.010/1
Russell Henley -3 11.010/1
Thriston Lawrence -3 19.018/1
Dan Brown -3 29.028/1
Scottie Scheffler -2 5.39/2
Shane Lowry -1 25.024/1
Adam Scott E 46.045/1
Justin Thomas E 50.049/1
Matthew Jordan E 160.0159/1
Sung-Jae Im +1 130.0129/1
Byeong Hun An +1 250.0249/1
Jon Rahm +2 140.0139/1
Collin Morikawa +2 200.0199/1
+2 330.0329/1 bar

Horschel's two-under-par in the worst of the conditions was the round of the day yesterday and I wouldn't put anyone off backing him at 6/17.00.

The gritty 37-year-old has never been in this position in a major championship, and this is the first time in his long and distinguished career that he's led by a solitary stroke with a round to go.

He failed to convert a two-stroke lead 11 years ago at the Texas Open, but he won back-to-back FedEx Cup events a decade ago when in front after three rounds.

The Floridian is three from six when leading after 54 holes, but he was three and five clear for two of those wins.

As demonstrated below, six of the nine previous Open winners at Troon have been leading or tied at the top and since Stenson converted from the front eight years ago, three of the last six winners have been out in front after three rounds.

Position of Troon Open winners after 54 holes
2016 - Henrik Stenson led by a stroke
2004 - Todd Hamilton led by a stroke
1997 - Justin Leonard tied third and five off the lead
1989 - Mark Calcavecchia tied fourth and three off the lead
1982 - Tom Watson solo fifth and three off the lead
1973 - Tom Weiskoph led by one
1962 - Arnold Palmer led by five
1950 - Bobby Locke tied for the lead with two others
1923 - Arthur Havers led by a stroke

That all bodes well for Horschel, whose profile closely matches many an Open winner, and the 6/17.00 is fair but this really is impossible to call.

With as many as six players tied for second and just one behind Horschel, and with as many as 24 players within six of the lead, anything could happen today.

Although this major generally suits the frontrunners, the weather has caused mayhem from the start this week and we saw yesterday just how volatile the leaderboard can be when the weather changes.

Padraig Harington, in 2007, and Ernie Els, in 2012, both won from six strokes adrift fairly recently, so we can probably go all the way down to +2 in search of the winner.

Major winners Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson and Collin Morikawa are six adrift but with the weather predicted to improve as the day wares on today, Horschel and co look set for a better afternoon today and that's going to make it tough for the closers.

Having backed Scheffler at halfway and having Adam Scott and Sungjae Im on the fringes of contention (both were backed at triple-figure prices during the Scottish Open last week), I was very tempted to sit on my hands now and see how the day develops but I can't resist a small play on the halfway leader, Lowry.

When Cam Smith won at St Andrews two years ago, he'd led by two at halfway and just like Lowry, he slipped back on Saturday, falling four off the lead with a sorry 73.

He bounced back with a 64 on Sunday to win by one and I can see the Irishman doing something similar.

A case can be made for so many that it's impossible to call, but the 25/126.00 about Lowry winning from just three back looks fair. He'll feel like he has nothing to lose now, and a low round could be on the cards.

And I've also had a tiny bet on Alex Noren who trails by six.

If someone is going to emulate Harington and Els, the Swedish veteran could be the one. He won both the BMW PGA Championship in 2017 and the Open de France a year later, having trailed by seven with a round to go.

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07:30 - July 20, 2024 - Support for Lowry with light winds expected

I looked at the current state of play at the 152^nd Open Championship in detail last night (see below) but I forget to detail Lowry's record when leading through 36 holes.

The Irishman has held a clear lead at halfway only four times previously, but he has a 50% strike-rate.

He won the Irish Open in a playoff as an amateur way back in 2009, having led by two after 36 holes, and he won the 2019 Abu Dhabi Championship wire-to-wire in 2019 but he failed to convert a one-stroke lead at both the Wales Open ten years ago and at the RBC Heritage in 2019.

Not counting the Zurich Classic of New Orleans pairs event, which he won with Rory McIlroy in April, after the pair had been tied for the lead at halfway, Lowry has been tied for the lead at halfway five times and he's only gone on to win once but it was a biggy!

Lowry was tied for the lead with J.B Holmes at the Open Championship at Portrush in 2019 before he shot 63 on Saturday to shoot four clear of the field.

Looking at the market, it's interesting to see that Lowry has hardened up overnight and he's now trading at 3.02/1, whereas the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, has drifted to 5.14/1.

The weather forecast has also altered fractionally, with the wind predicted to be very light, but the leaders look likely to encounter some rain in the evening.

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21:50 - July 19, 2024 - Lowry two clear going into round three

After two rounds in testing conditions at Royal Troon, only ten players are under-par heading into the weekend at the 152^nd Open Championship and the 2019 winner, Shane Lowry, is the man in front.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 21:30.

Shane Lowry -7 3.259/4
Justin Rose -5 8.415/2
Dan Brown -5 30.029/1
Scottie Scheffler -2 4.94/1
Billy Horschel -2 34.033/1
Dean Burmester -2 40.039/1
Xander Schauffele -1 13.5
Patrick Cantlay -1 22.021/1
Corey Conners -1 32.031/1
Jason Day -1 50.049/1
Joaquin Niemann E 48.047/1
Matthew Jordan E 240.0239/1
Jon Rahm +1 34.033/1
Collin Morikawa +1 40.039/1
Brookes Koepka +1 60.059/1
+1 160.0159/1 bar

There has been a huge draw bias in favour of the PM-AM starters this year, with those drawn in the afternoon on Thursday averaging 2.23 less strokes than the AM-PM side of the draw, and the only player inside the top-10 that started their second round after 10:00 on Friday morning is Justin Rose.

The Englishman didn't start his second round until 12:47 and he constructed his quite brilliant three-under-par 68, a score nobody bettered all day, in some of the worst conditions today.

Rose, who's playing in his 21^st Open Championship, made just one bogey over the first two days, at the ultra-tough par four 12^th when the wind was pounding this afternoon.

The wind did ease as the afternoon turned into evening, and one or two players finished nicely (Joaquin Niemann shot 31 on the back nine) but the damage had been done for most and if you backed anyone but Rose that was drawn AM-PM, you were always up against it.

Up with the pace is usually the place to be at an Open Championship and four of the last six winners were in front at halfway. And that includes Lowry, who was tied at the top at Portrush in 2019.

Clear leaders have a 38% strike-rate since 1997, with eight of 21 converting but that includes the likes of Louis Oosthuizen and Brain Harman, who were five in front, and Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods, who were four in front.

Including Darren Clarke, who led here by a couple of strokes in 1997, we've seen six men hold a two-stroke advantage since '97 and only two went on to win. Cam Smith at St Andrews two years ago and Jordan Spieth at Royal Birkdale in 2017, although both men went through the mill before holding the Claret Jug.

Smith dropped to third place and four off the lead when he shot 73 on Saturday and Matt Kuchar looked the most likely winner deep into the back nine on Sunday seven years ago.

Lowry may well kick on and emulate fellow Irishman, Padraig Harrington, who won his two Open titles back-to-back, but it certainly won't be easy.

His driving accuracy stats are a bit concerning given he's only hit 15 of 28 fairways and the weather might be against him tomorrow too.

A renowned poor weather specialist, Lowry won't be too enamoured to see the forecast suggesting a more slightly benign day tomorrow, and the stats from previous renewals at Troon look mildly problematic.

As demonstrated below, none of the last five Troon winners were in front at halfway and we've seen winners here trailing by one, two, three, four, and even seven strokes at hallway.

Position of Troon Open winners after 36 holes
2016 - Henrik Stenson solo second and one off the lead
2004 - Todd Hamilton tied fifth and three off the lead
1997 - Justin Leonard solo second and two off the lead
1989 - Mark Calcavecchia tied seventh and four off the lead
1982 - Tom Watson tied fifth and seven off the lead
1973 - Tom Weiskoph led by three
1962 - Arnold Palmer led by two
1950 - Bobby Locke solo third, two off the lead
1923 - Arthur Havers tied for the lead with one other

With all than in mind, I'm happy to continue to ignore the leader and I'm happy to play the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, at around 4/15.00.

He didn't have his A game off the tee today and he was unlucky at the last when his tee shot trundled on and on up the fairway and into a fairway bunker. It was a tough break that led to a bogey five but that's resulted in him trading at a decent price.

After two rounds to find his form, and with areas of his game that can certainly improve (accuracy off the tee in particular), the world number one looks like the value at halfway.

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14:55 - July 19, 2024 - Lowry favourite after birdie at the last

Conditions were reasonable this morning at the 152^nd edition of the Open Championship but the best anyone has been able to post around Royal Troon so far today is three-under-par 68.

Out of the reckoning after poor opening rounds, Gary Woodland and Jorge Campillo posted 68s this morning and Jason Day, Billy Horschel and Patrick Cantlay, are all on the fringes of contention after their 68s.

All three have made up lots of ground on the leaders and with the wind blowing hard this afternoon, the worst-case scenario is that they remain where they are on the leaderboard, but the market is still dominated by Ireland's Shane Lowry, who has composed himself nicely after his double-bogey at 10, and the world number one, Scottie Scheffler.

Lowry has just finished his second round with birdies at 16 and 18 and his two-under par 69 sees him lead by two over the first-round leader, Dan Brown, who's scrapping nicely in round two.

A birdie on the 18th to record a 69 and become the leader in the clubhouse. pic.twitter.com/6BqhWAmpEr

-- The Open (@TheOpen) July 19, 2024

The 29-year-old Englishman has played 12 holes and he's currently on -5 and one-over-par for the day.

The market has struggled to split Lowry and Scheffler and they've been flip-flopping at the head of the market all afternoon.

Scheffler hasn't been at his best off the tee today, but he's still managed to keep his card fairly clean and with one hole to play in round two, he's two-under for the day and three-under for the tournament.

Scheffler is four behind Lowry but assuming he makes no worse than par at the 18th, he looks extremely dangerous heading into the weekend.

England's Justin Rose is the only person out this afternoon that appears to have a chance to catch Lowry and Brown but it's very hard to envisage that happening.

Those in the clubhouse already are in the best place with the wind blowing and the likes of Lowry, Scheffler, Schauffele, Cantlay and Horschel are only likely to shortened up as the day wares on. It appears that they've had the luck of the draw.

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12:50 - July 19, 2024 - Lowry starting to toil

After a big break off the tee on the tenth, when his tee-ball was wide enough to find the spectator walkway, Shane Lowry was matched at 3.259/4 to win the Open Championship after he gave himself a putt inside five feet for a birdie three to extend his lead.

But he missed the putt and hit another drive wide off the 10^th. He then hit a terrible shot from the rough with his second which is currently sitting in a gorse bush! It all added up to a double bogey six and, whatever happens here, he's going to have to find his long game coming in if he's to lead through 36 holes.

The world number one, Scottie Scheffler, is treading water in round two and he's currently level par for the day and one-under-par for the tournament.

My pre-event pick, Patrick Cantlay, is now four-under-par for the day and two-under-par for the tournament and having been matched at as high as 160.0159/1, he's now trading at around 12.011/1.

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11:00 - July 19, 2024

Early second round starter, Marcel Siem, was matched at just 50.049/1 to win the Open Championship after he'd played his first eight holes of his second round in five-under-par to reach -3 but he's tumbled back on the back nine and all eyes are on the 2019 winner, Shane Lowry.

After a birdie at the first, the Irishman gave himself an eight-footer for another at the third. That slid by and I did wonder if that was a momentum stopper, but he's just birdied the par five fourth and with nobody else making any headway, it's not inconceivable that he opens up a sizable lead.

The pre-event 55.054/1 chance is now trading at around the 5/23.50 mark and if he pars in from here to post a halfway total of -7, he could find himself with a healthy halfway lead if the wind picks up as predicted this afternoon.

Lowry was edged out of the first round lead by Daniel Brown.

Many will not have heard of the Yorkshireman but 13 Betfair customers backed him at 100/1101.00 or bigger with 250/1251.00 the biggest price taken!

Take a bow, Daniel Brown!

The world no.272 was a high of 250/1 to lead #TheOpen after Round 1.

13 Betfair punters backed him at 100/1 or bigger 👏 pic.twitter.com/IOFdJfUROz

-- Betfair (@Betfair) July 19, 2024

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22:35 - July 18, 2024

Justin Thomas was trading at around 18.017/1 to win the 152^nd Open Championship when he signed for his three-under-par 68 this morning and as the weather deteriorated slightly and the scoring worsened fractionally, he was matched at a low of 13.012/1 in the outright market and at just 1.758/11 to be the first-round leader.

Conditions were really tough at around three o'clock and with the wind blowing in a southerly direction, the front-nine was particularly brutal.

In both 2004 and 2016 - the last two occasions that Royal Troon hosted the Open Championship - the front nine was considerably easier than the back-nine but birdies were few and far between on the opening holes on Thursday with the wind blowing into the player's faces.

As the afternoon wore on, and as we moved into the evening, the wind began to slacken, and the late starters began to score. Although there were still plenty of afternoon starters that struggled.

Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa will be disappointed with their two-over-par 73s, my strong fancy, Wyndham Clark, played holes eight to 12 in eight-over-par to ruin his chance, and it was quite sad to watch Tiger Woods post an eight-over par 79. But that was still a shot better than what the 2022 winner, Cam Smith, posted. And the Aussie birdied two of his last three holes!

Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau look out of it already after their +7 and +5 opening rounds, but the world number one Scottie, Scheffler, is bang there after a birdie at the last saw him post a one-under-par 70.

After Thomas had been matched at odds-on in the first-round leader market, early this afternoon, Shane Lowry was matched at just 1.051/20 when he birdied the final hole this evening, but long odds-on backers have had their fingers burnt.

With the day drawing to a close, England's Dan Brown birdied 16 and 18 to edge ahead, pleasing punters that played him at as high as 540.0539/1 to end the day in front.

The clubhouse leader: Daniel Brown.

With a round of 65, he leads The 152nd Open. pic.twitter.com/7ZaHAXQp1e

-- The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2024

Here's the first-round leaderboard with prices to back at 22:30.

Dan Brown -6 60.059/1
Shane Lowry -5 6.411/2
Justin Thomas -3 21.020/1
Xander Schauffele -2 8.27/1
Alex Noren -2 40.039/1
Justin Rose -2 55.054/1
Russell Henley -2 60.059/1
Nicolai Hojgaard -2 60.059/1
Mackenzie Hughes -2 110.0109/1
Joe Dean -2 400.0399/1
Scottie Scheffler -1 5.14/1
Brooks Koepka -1 18.017/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -1 32.031/1
Adam Scott -1 48.047/1
Sepp Straka -1 50.049/1
Matt Wallace -1 150.0149/1
Chris Kirk -1 260.0259/1
Jordan Spieth E 44.043/1
Tony Finau E 46.045/1
Even Par @ 65.064/1 bar

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, only three of the last 19 Open winners have been outside the top-10 after round one but it's been a bit of a mixed bag at this venue.

As shown below, three of the last four winners at Troon have trailed by five strokes after round one but the other six course winners were all inside the front three and no more than three off the lead after the opening round.

2016 - Henrik Stenson tied 12^th and five off the lead
2004 - Todd Hamilton tied 40^th and five off the lead
1997 - Justin Leonard tied third and two off the lead
1989 - Mark Calcavecchia tied 25^th and five off the lead
1982 - Tom Watson tied second and two off the lead
1973 - Tom Weiskoph clear lead
1962 - Arnold Palmer tied third and two off the lead
1950 - Bobby Locke tied second and one off the lead
1923 - Arthur Havers tied third and three off the lead

It looks like we really do need to be concentrating on those that have ended the day under-par today and looking at the forecast, those that start early tomorrow are going to get the better of the weather.

It's far from an exact science and things can change quickly but I'm happy to back Brooks Koepka and Sepp Straka.

Koepka has already won four major championships and he looks fairly priced to add a fifth and Straka looks a great price at 50.049/1 given he starts before 8:00 tomorrow.

As many as six of the last seven Open winners at Troon have been from the USA, so that bodes well for Koepka, and three of the last four victors here have won the Cognizant Classic, an event Straka won two years ago.

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13:55 - July 18, 2024

A week after leading the Scottish Open after round one, world number 29, Justin Thomas, leads the 152^nd Open Championship after a three-under-par 68 opening round at Royal Troon this morning.

He looked like drifting back into the pack after double-bogeying the tough 12^th and a bogey at the 13^th but he signed the day of with back-to-back birdies and he may well end the day in front.

Birdie-birdie finish to take the early lead.@JustinThomas34 is out front @TheOpen! pic.twitter.com/1Ij5gkfDIQ

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 18, 2024

There's a long way to go today, with the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, amongst the afternoon wave that have yet to begin the Championship, but if he does end the day in front, Thomas will be hoping for a far better outcome than last week.

After an opening 62, Thomas shot 72 on Friday and a pair of 71s over the weekend to finish in a tie for 62^nd. A result that saw the two-time US PGA Championship winner drift all the way out to 150.0149/1 to win this week.

Now into around 18.017/1, it will be interesting to see where he's positioned and at what price he's trading, when he tees off his second round tomorrow afternoon.

Thomas may have started nicely but the two main protagonists at last month's US Open - the winner, Bryson DeChambeau, and Rory McIlroy - have endured a torrid time this morning.

DeChambeau, who was a well-fancied 22/123.00 chance on the exchange before the off, played his first eight holes in six-over-par and Rory double-bogeyed both the eighth and the 11^th holes.

At the time of writing, Bryson is on +6 and Rory +5 but they're far from the only stars to be toiling at Troon.

The world number four, Ludvig Aberg, is currently four-over-par and Tommy Fleetwood and Viktor Hovland are both on +3.

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Pre-Event Picks:

Tom Kim @ 55.054/1
Patrick Cantlay @ 60.059/1
Wyndham Clark @ 90.089/1

In-Play Picks:

Brooks Koepka @ 18.017/1
Sepp Straka @ 50.049/1
Scottie Scheffler @ 5.04/1
Shane Lowry @ 26.025/1
Alex Noren @ 400.0399/1

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