The Open Championship 2024: Wyndham Clark must be backed at 89/1

• Steve Rawlings goes in-depth on Open Championship 2024

• Super scrambling required at Troon

• Experience is vital and top 50 players dominate

• Pick your places on Open each-way bets with the Betfair Sportsbook

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Golf Only Bettor - The Open Championship Preview

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Tournament History

After a sensible change to the scheduling five years ago, the oldest and greatest of the four majors, the Open Championship, often referred to as the British Open, is now the final one of the four to be staged each year.

Organised by the Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St Andrews (the R&A), the Open Championship is the only one of the four majors to be played outside of the USA. Willie Park won the inaugural tournament way back in 1860 and this will be the 152^nd edition.

Although a nomadic tournament, the Open Championship is always staged on a links course and this year we're returning to Royal Troon.

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Venue

Royal Troon, Ayrshire, Scotland

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Course Details

Par 71, 7,058 yards (2016)
Stroke index in 2016 - 73.16

Set on the Ayrshire coast, with the Isle of Arran in view, Troon (made Royal Troon in 1978) has been in existence in some form or another since 1870 when it's believed the course consisted of only four or five holes.

Troon has staged the event nine times previously, and the last renewal here, in 2016, was one of the greatest in the Championship's history.

Henrik Stenson began the final round on -12, leading Phil Mickelson by a stroke and the pair were five clear of the rest.

Stenson bogeyed the opening hole as Phil birdied it and that set the tone for the day. The two had an almighty tussle with the Swede eventually winning by three after a ridiculously good eight-under-par 63. Mickelson shot 65 and the next best round on Sunday was the 67 shot by the fast-finishing fifth, Rory McIlroy.

Tom Watson and Jack Nicklaus had famously contested the "Duel in the Sun" at Turnberry way back in 1977 but Nicklaus felt that Stenson and Mickelson's scrap was even better.

He said: "I thought we played great and had a wonderful match. On that day, Tom got me, 65-66. Our final round was really good, but theirs was even better. What a great match today."

Here's a full list of the Open winners at Troon.

1923 - Arthur Havers (England) +15
1950 - Bobby Locke (South Africa) -1
1962 - Arnold Palmer (USA) -12
1973 - Tom Weiskopf (USA) -12
1982 - Tom Watson (USA) -4
1989 - Mark Calcavecchia (USA) -13 (playoff)
1997 - Justin Leonard (USA) -12
2004 - Todd Hamilton (USA) -10 (playoff)
2016 - Henrik Stenson -20

Troon is a traditional out-and-in seaside links (meaning the first nine holes play in one direction and the second nine run back in the opposite direction) and the par three eighth, named Postage Stamp, is the course's most iconic hole.

It measures only 123 yards long and there are plans to shorten it to less than 100 on one of the four days but with its tiny green and deep bunkers, it's a tricky hole and in the last two renewals here it's averaged over-par at 3.09.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 6:30 on Thursday morning

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Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2023 - Brian Harman -13 170.0169/1
2022 - Cam Smith -20 26.025/1
2021 - Collin Morikawa -15 42.041/1
2020 - Championship cancelled
2019 - Shane Lowry -15 100.099/1
2018 - Francesco Molinari -8 38.037/1
2017 - Jordan Spieth -12 17.016/1
2016 - Henrik Stenson -20 25.024/1
2015 - Zach Johnson -15 150.0149/1 (playoff)
2014 - Rory McIlroy -17 19.018/1
2013 - Phil Mickelson -3 21.020/1

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Scrambling looks the key stat at Troon

Although the Championship is played at a different venue each year, links golf offers up broadly the same test whichever links course is used so here's a look at the average traditional statistical rankings for the winners of the last 10 Open Championships.

Average key stats for the last 10 Open winners
Driving Accuracy - 40.2
Driving Distance - 33.1
G.I.R - 17.1
Scrambling - 9.5
Putting Average - 7.2

Looking at the 10-year average rankings, what you do off the tee is fairly unimportant but a strong week on and around the greens is key and that's emphatically been the case in the last two editions at Troon.

Stenson and Mickelson ranked second and third for Putting Average in 2016, seventh and first for Scrambling.

The five men to finish immediately below the front two in 2016 ranked fourth, third, second, 15^th and 17^th for Scrambling and six of the top-eight in 2004 ranked inside the top-12 for Scrambling so that looks like the stat to concentrate on.

Strokes Gained stats were produced for the first time at the Open Championship two years ago, so for what it's worth, here's the top-five at St Andrews and Hoylake with the Strokes Gained stats - SG: Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green, SG: Tee to Green and SG: Putting.

2022
Cam Smith -20 - TEE 34 APP 24 ATG 22 T2G 17 PUTTING 1
Cameron Young -19 - TEE 4 APP 10 ATG 8 T2G 2 PUTTING 17
Rory McIlroy -18 - TEE 1 APP 25 ATG 6 T2G 1 PUTTING 29
Tommy Fleetwood -14 - TEE 57 APP 9 ATG 23 T2G 18 PUTTING 8
Viktor Hovland -14 - TEE 41 APP 22 ATG 3 T2G 12 PUTTING 17

2023
Brian Harman -13 - TEE 15 APP 30 ATG 27 T2G 17 PUTTING 1
Jason Day -7 - TEE 35 APP 37 ATG 2 T2G 9 PUTTING 16
Tom Kim -7 - TEE 32 APP 27 ATG 33 T2G 25 PUTTING 2
Jon Rahm -7 - TEE 10 APP 16 ATG 32 T2G 5 PUTTING 18
Sepp Straka -7 - TEE 31 APP 2 ATG 67 T2G 4 PUTTING 21

I'm not sure we can read too much in to just two years' worth of numbers but it's immediately noticeable that the last two winners both topped the SG: Putting list.

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Is a start in the Scottish Open essential?

Now that the Scottish Open is co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour, and that the field strength has increased dramatically as a result, what used to be a really great angle in is now just a factor worthy of mention.

Links golf is quite unique and ever since the Scottish Open moved away from Loch Lomond, after the 2010 edition, to take in various wonderful Scottish links, an appearance in the Scottish the week before the Open has often proved beneficial.

Last year's winner, Brian Harman, had warmed up for Hoylake with a tied 12^th at the Renaissance Club and the 2022 winner, Cam Smith, who finished tied for 10^th at the Scottish Open, made it quite clear that playing it had been key to winning at St Andrews.

"I started to feel really good with where my game was at last weekend at the Scottish Open, I had a really, really solid weekend."

Since the Scottish Open has been regularly played on a links layout, eight of the last 12 Open winners have played in the event and it was very nearly nine. Matt Kuchar, who traded at odds-on before he was beaten by Jordan Spieth in 2017, had finished fourth in the Scottish.

Looking at the four winners who hadn't played in the Scottish Open, Spieth is the only one who hadn't played recently. His last appearance had been almost a month earlier when he'd won the Travelers Championship, but Zach Johnson won the Open in 2105 a week after finishing third at the John Deere Classic on the PGA Tour and Francesco Molinari won the Open after finishing second in the John Deere Classic.

Shane Lowry didn't play in the Scottish Open but that made plenty of sense. Having finished 34^th in the Irish Open on a links layout two weeks before the Open at Royal Portrush, he decided to stay in his native Ireland and tick over on links tracks instead of travelling back and forth to Scotland.

The LIV Golf Tour is taking in the tight, tree-lined Valderrama layout in Spain this week, which is a very different test to that faced in Scotland so that's arguably a sizable negative for the US Open winner, Bryson DeChambeau, and the 2022 winner, Smith. Scottie Scheffler has elected to take the week off. Could that prove to be costly?

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Harman ticked the boxes

Last year's winner, Brian Harman, hadn't won in six years and he was just the fifth Open winner this century not to have won on either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour in the previous 12 months.

Like Harman, the previous four not to have won - Ben Curtis, Stewart Cink, Ernie Els, and Zach Johnson - were all outsiders but despite his big price, Harman still ticked a lot of trends boxes.

Harman arrived at Hoylake in form having finished second at the Travelers Championship, ninth at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and most importantly, 12^th in the Scottish Open the week before. As Dave Tindall highlights in his 10-year trends piece, nine of the last 10 Open winners had finished inside the top-10 in at least one of their last three starts.

Scheffler won the US Masters for a second time in April and Bryson DeChambeau won his second US Open title in dramatic fashion last month. But 23 of the last 36 majors have gone the way of a first-time major winner (64%) and Harman was the fifth Open winner in seven years to win his first major at the Open.

Although five of the last seven winners hadn't won a major, all five had finished second in one and we have to go all the way back to Louis Oosthuizen's shock win in 2010 to find the last Open winner not to have finished first or second in a previous major. Bizarrely, in addition to his victory at St Andrews 14 years ago, he's now famously finished runner-up in all four!

Harman had also finished tied for sixth at St Andrews the year before so we knew he could play links golf and at 36, he was just the right age to lift the Claret Jug.

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Open Championship form is a huge plus

The 2022 winner, Cam Smith, had poor previous Open form figures reading MC-78-20-33 and Morikawa was playing in his first Open. Prior to 2021, however, previous Open Championship form had been a huge pointer and 15 of the last 18 winners have recorded a top-10 in the Open previously.

Shane Lowry and Francesco Molinari had both finished ninth previously, but those finishes could be construed as slight anomalies given 13 of the last 18 winners have finished inside the top-six in an Open and remarkably, eight of the last 18 winners had finished inside the top-three!

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Experience counts for plenty

The two winners before Harman went against the grain on several accounts. In addition to not having much or any previous Open form or very recent form, both were in their 20s.

Rory and Oosthuizen have also won this major in their 20s fairly recently but experienced pros have a great record in the Open and I'd favour the old guard over the young guns.

Lowry was only 32 when he won five years ago but he's played links golf all his life. He famously won the Irish Open at the County Louth Links as an amateur way back in 2009. Twelve months before Lowry won at Portrush, Francesco Molinari became the ninth player aged 35 and above to win the Open in 12 years. Veterans figure in this championship year after year.

Henrik Stenson had turned 40 just three months before he won here in 2016 and the 2015 winner, Zach Johnson, turned 40 eight months after he'd won.

In addition to Stenson winning here eight years ago, 46-year-old Phil Mickelson finished second and 49-year-old Steve Stricker finished fourth. But they were mere pups in comparison to a couple of fairly recent contenders.

At Royal Birkdale 16 years ago, 53-year-old two-time Open Champion Greg Norman led the field by two strokes after three tough, windy days and he was the oldest player to ever lead the Open Championship through 54-holes.

Twelve months later 59-year-old Tom Watson smashed that record when he took a one-stroke lead into round four at Turnberry. Both men were eventually collared but they emphasize my point. This is clearly a tournament where plenty of experience is a huge plus and age is no barrier.

Given how well experienced players fare, it's perhaps not surprising that debutants have a woeful record. Morikawa, in 2021, was the first to win since Ben Curtis in 2003 and the last debutant before Curtis was Tom Watson in 1975.

Even though it's played at a different venue each year, the examination is always similar and it's unique to anything else encountered, so previous tournament experience is usually very important.

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Stick to the World's Top-50

Dave Tindall has moved to using Datagolf rankings in his 10-year trends pieces and I can see why.

LIV Golf events are completely disregarded by the Official World Rankings but, even though two of the last six majors have been won by Liv Golfers, 49 of the last 50 majors have still been won by someone inside the world's top-50 in the Official World Rankings.

Brooks Koepka ranked 44^th when he won the US PGA Championship last year and DeChambeau jumped from 38^th to 10^th when he won at Pinehurst last month.

Mickelson, who won the US PGA Championship at the age of 51 when ranked 115^th in the Official World Rankings in 2021, is the odd man out, and Harman ranked 26^th when he won at Hoylake 12 months ago.

As many as six of the last ten Open winners have ranked inside the top-10 in the Official World rankings, the last 12 open winners have all been inside the top-40 and it was noticeable how highly ranked all the contenders were last year. The six players behind Harman on the final leaderboard were all inside the world's top-50 on the Official World Rankings.

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Should we favour the American contingent?

Mickelson was matched at a low of 1.684/6 during the final round here eight years ago and had he gone on to win he would have been the seventh American Open winner in-a-row at Royal Troon.

That could very easily be just a strange anomaly, but Americans have a fabulous record at the Open Championship and 16 of the last 28 editions have been won by someone from the States.

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Don't be afraid to back a longshot

This has always been a great Championship for outsiders.

Ben Curtis, in 2003, and Todd Hamilton, here 20 years ago, were complete and utter rank outsiders and the three winners between 2009 and 2011 all went off at odds in excess of 300.0299/1.

Harman, who had been matched at a high of 460.0459/1 when the market first opened, began the week trading at around 170.0169/1 last year, and he was the third triple-figure price winner in eight years.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Brian Harman - led by five 1.654/6
2022 - Cam Smith - tied fourth, trailing by four 15.014/1
2021 - Collin Morikawa - solo second, trailing by one 3.1511/5
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Shane Lowry - led by four strokes 1.635/8
2018 - Francesco Molinari - solo fifth, trailing by three 16.015/1
2017 - Jordan Spieth - led by three strokes 1.42/5
2016 - Henrik Stenson - led by a stroke 1.768/11
2015 - Zach Johnson - tied sixth, trailing by three 38.037/1
2014 - Rory McIlroy - led by six strokes 1.21/5

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In-Play Tactics

Molinari sat tied for 29^th and six off the pace at halfway six years and he was still three off the lead with a round to go. But off the pace winners have been fairly common at the 2018 venue, Carnoustie.

That's not the norm in this Championship as a rule and only three of the last 19 winners have been outside the top-10 after round one.

It's been a bit of a mixed bag at this venue though. As many as three of the last four winners at Troon have trailed by five after round one. But the other six course winners were all inside the front three and no more than three off the lead after the opening round.

2016 - Henrik Stenson tied 12^th and five off the lead
2004 - Todd Hamilton tied 40^th and five off the lead
1997 - Justin Leonard tied third and two off the lead
1989 - Mark Calcavecchia tied 25^th and five off the lead
1982 - Tom Watson tied second and two off the lead
1973 - Tom Weiskoph clear lead
1962 - Arnold Palmer tied third and two off the lead
1950 - Bobby Locke tied second and one off the lead
1923 - Arthur Havers tied third and three off the lead

Ernie Els was seven shots adrift at halfway in 2012 but he was still only tied for 10^th and that's the furthest number of strokes made up this century after 36 holes. David Duval also trailed by seven in 2001 but 11 36-hole leaders have gone on to win this century, 17 of the 23 winners were inside the top-five places at halfway and 18 of the 23 were within three strokes of the lead after 36 holes. Unless the weather is poor, making up ground on links tracks can be difficult.

While watching the coverage, you'll invariably hear the commentators say on several occasions that there's a long way to go and that there's plenty of time to make up lost ground or that anyone who makes the weekend can still win, but that's not really the case.

Those with long memories may recall Paul Lawrie's miraculous win at Carnoustie in 1999 from 10 shots back with a round to go but that was a freak result of monumental proportions.

I can't stress enough how important a fast start is and being up with the pace is usually essential.

Although Stenson, Hamilton and Calcavecchia all trailed by five here after round one, they were all inside the top-seven at halfway and making up lots of ground to win this Championship is very rare.

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The front nine is the scoring nine at Troon

The front night averaged 36.15 (just a smidgen over its par of 36) and four of the easiest five holes were encountered in a five-hole stretch from the third to the seventh in 2016. The par three fifth was the only hole in that stretch to average above par (3.18).

In contrast, the par five 16^th, which averaged 4.81 in 2016, was the only hole on the back-nine to average below par, and the nine holes combined averaged 36.99, almost two strokes more than its par of 35.

If you're going to be betting in-running, pay particular attention to the tough stretch around the turn. Holes nine, 10, 11, 12 and 13 ranked as the eighth, third, first, third and sixth hardest holes eight years ago.

And it was a very similar story in 2004. The front nine averaged half a stroke over-par for the week, the back nine averaged 1.71 strokes over-par and the three hardest holes on the course were 10, 11 and 12.

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Leading players in The Open betting

Scottie Scheffler @ 6.86/1

Open Championship Form - 8-2-23
Current Form - 2-1-1-8-2-1-41-1

The world number one, Scottie Scheffler, heads the market and he's two points bigger than he was at last month's US Open, where he finished tied for 41^st.

That's sure to tempt a few punters but I'm not one of them. He has only an ordinary record at the Open Championship and the fact we haven't seen him since he won the Travelers Championship a month ago is a sizable negative too.

Scheffler is adjusting to life with a brand-new baby and winning his third major without having played recently looks less likely than the market suggests.

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Rory McIlroy @ 10.09/1

Open Championship Form - 42-47-3-25-60-MC-1-5-4-2-MC-46-3-6
Current Form - 33-1-1-12-4-15-2-4

Following a slightly disappointing weekend at the Scottish Open, where a lukewarm putter hindered his chances of becoming the first player in history to defend the title, Rory McIlroy is on the slide.

It's now a decade since his last major success, at the US PGA Championship, and also 10 years since he won his one and only Open title at last year's venue, Hoylake.

As mentioned above, he was a fast finishing tied fifth here in 2016 and his tied fourth on Sunday at the Renaissance Club is probably just the sort of warm up he needed, so there are positives.

Last week's return to the fray will have blown the rust off, and some of the disappointment he will have felt following his dreadful late collapse at Pinehurst, but he can't be described as a value play, even with the recent market drift.

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Xander Schauffele @ 17.016/1

Open Championship Form - 20-2-41-26-15-17
Current Form - 18-23-2-18-7-13-15

Xander Schauffele's Open Championship form is only ordinary since he finished tied second to Francesco Molinari at Carnoustie six years ago, but the 2022 Scottish Open winner looks highly likely to contend this year.

Schauffele is the latest high profile player to make his major championship breakthrough, having won the US PGA Championship in May and his tied 15^th at the Renaissance Club on Sunday is the perfect warm-up.

He ranked third for Greens In Regulation and first for Scrambling but only 67^th for Putting Average last week. so He'll need to improve on the greens this week is if he's going to win his second major.

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Ludvig Aberg @ 17.016/1

Open Championship Form - Debut
Current Form - 14-2-10-MC-5-12-27-4

World number four, Ludvig Aberg, must lift himself after a disappointing Sunday at the Scottish Open.

He entered the final round trading at odds-on with a two-stroke lead but he made just one birdie and four bogeys around the Renaissance Club to slip into a tie for fourth.

He's also playing in his first Open Championship and that's been quite a negative over the years.

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Selections

As highlighted in last week's In-Play Blog, I got Adam Scott and Sungjae Im onside at triple figure prices during the Scottish Open and I'll be back tomorrow with one or two more longshots with the Find Me a 100 Winner column but prior to that, I've got three more picks at 55.054/1 and above.

Tom Kim was a bit disappointing when I backed him before the off last week to win the Scottish Open but his six-under-par 64 on Sunday, that saw him climb into a tie for 15^th, was enough to persuade me to stick with him here.

The 22-year-old Korean finished tied second last year, despite suffering a grade-1 tear in his ankle after stumbling on the patio of his rental home, and he has two top-six finishes at the Scottish Open, so we know he loves a links layout.

Kim has been a bit disappointing since defending the Shriners Children's Open title in October, but the world number 17 is a great scrambler and putter and he's has been trending nicely lately with a sixth placed finish at the Canadian Open and a playoff defeat at the Travelers Championship the highlights.

World number eight, Patrick Cantlay, withdrew from the John Deere Classic three days before the event began two weeks ago due to injury, so that's a concern and he hasn't won for two years. But he's drifted to a price that's impossible to ignore.

Cantlay was in fine fettle when last sighted, finishing third at the US Open and fifth at the Travelers Championship, and as a highly ranked 32-year-old American playing in his seventh Open (eighth in 2022 his best finish), in search of his first major success, he's a good fit trends-wise.

Cantlay looks too big at 60.059/1 and at 90.089/1, last year's US Open winner, Wyndham Clark, looks a huge price.

Clark won the weather-shortened Pebble Beach Pro-Am back in February when he shot 60 around Pebble Beach in the third and final round and he advertised his wellbeing nicely on Sunday.

That 12-under-par knock is the lowest ever recorded around the iconic Californian links and he gave off a similar vibe at the Scottish Open on Sunday when he shot an eight-under-par 62 around the Renaissance Club.

Turning for home in two-under-par, he climbed into the top-10 with a sensational 29 on the back-nine and he's a bafflingly big price at 90.089/1.

The world number five finished 76th in his first Open Championship appearance two years ago and he finished 33^rd last year when struggling with his game. But he enjoys links golf and he's been dismissed far too readily after finding a bit of form.

Last week's tied 10^th followed a ninth placed finish in the Travelers Championship and he's scrambling and putting nicely too.

In his last two starts he's ranked 12^th and eighth for Scrambling, seventh and 15^th for Putting Average, and seventh and second for Strokes Gained: Putting.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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