The Punter's In-Play Blog: Top seeds set up exciting finale in Austin

Are McIlroy and Scheffler set to fight out the finish?
Germans looking to win in South Africa
Tight at the top in the Dominican

10:00 - March 26, 2023

It's trophy day at this week's three events and all three are still tough to call.

For the first time in the tournament's history, all four semi-finalists at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play are top-seeds.

The number one seed and defending champion, Scottie Scheffler, plays the 13th seed, Sam Burns, and the winner will meet either the number three seed, Rory McIlroy, or the 15th seed, Cameron Young, and I'm kicking myself for not backing Burns yesterday at 25.024/1.

Having backed Scheffler at 11.010/1 before the off and Young in-play at 16.531/2, I'd have been in a great position now had I followed my instinct and backed Burns.

I've got one in each semi-final so there's still a chance of a dream 'feet-up' final but had I backed Burns I'd have just backed Rory this morning at 3.211/5 and relaxed completely.

Scheffler, who has an incredible record at Austin Country Club, still heads the outright market at 2.727/4, but I wouldn't be in a rush to take that if I wasn't already onboard.

Scheffler lost in the final on debut two years ago before winning 12 months ago and he's won 17 of 19 matches here but there are definitely negatives.

Scheffler's caddie, Ted Scott, is nursing an ankle injury, after falling on the fourth hole on Friday and he was limping as they finished up yesterday but it's Scheffler's form yesterday that worries me more.

J.T Poston let him off the hook in the round of 16 and Jason Day failed to kick on in the quarters.

Scheffler drifted all the way out to 25.024/1 when two down with four to play against Poston and having shortened up when he won that match 1 Up, he drifted back out to 15.014/1 when Day raced to a 3 Up lead after six.

The defending champ is enjoying plenty of home support and he finished both of those matches brilliantly but if he's going to become only the second man in history to defend a WGC title (Tiger Woods did it eight times!), I fancy he'll need to start better in both matches today.

If Scheffler does get past Burns and meets Rory in the final, it'll be a chance to avenge his Tour Championship loss in August when Rory came from six back on Sunday to snatch the FedEx Cup off the Texan but Rory getting past Young won't be easy.

Burns is the outsider of the four at 7.26/1 but Young still looks a fair price at 5.39/2 given how well he's playing with new caddie, Paul Tesori, on the back for the first time.

So far this week, Young has made 31 birdies, four eagles and just three bogeys. Having only gone to the 18th hole twice, he's played less holes than the other three and he's also leading the field in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green (13.571), so Rory's got a game on his hands.

Over in South Africa, the final round of the Jonsson Workwear Open is already underway and it's a tournament I'm leaving alone now.

As many as seven players were separated by just two strokes at the start of the day with pre-event 130.0129/1 chance, Alex Knappe, leading by a shot.

The 34-year-old German, who's in search of his first win on the DP World Tour, was trading at 5.69/2 before play began, with Gavin Green, who trailed by a stroke, heading the market at 3/1, but at the time of writing it's the halfway leader, fellow German, Nick Bacham, that leads. He's played his first six holes in four-under-par and he leads Green and Knappe by a stroke.

The Jonsson Workwear Open is an untelevised low-grade affair that's very tricky to call so my only in-running bet today comes in the PGA Tour's other event, the Corales Puntacana Championship, where it's also tight, with nine players separated by just two strokes. Here's the 54 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:50.

Nicolai Hojgaard -14 5.04/1
Sam Stevens -14 6.05/1
Wyndham Clark -13 5.59/2
Thomas Detry -13 6.611/2
Matt Wallace -13 9.417/2
Tyler Duncan -13 10.09/1
Austin Eckroat -12 24.023/1
Martin Trainer -12 34.033/1
Ricky Barnes -12 55.054/1
Brice Garnett -10 160.0159/1
-9 and 200.0199/1 bar

This is only the eighth edition of the Corales Puntacana Championship, so we haven't got lots of history to look back on, but everything points to the very top of the leaderboard.

All seven previous winners have been up with the pace with a round to go and two strokes is the furthest any winner has trailed by after 54 holes.

As many as four of the seven victors were leading or tied for the lead with a round to go so that could be bad news for the DP World Tour.

Danish twin, Nicolai Hojgaard, who's tied at the top with Sam Stevens, is one of the main stars on the DP World Tour but instead of playing in the low-key Jonsson Work Wear Open, where he'd have been the star attraction, he's over in the Dominican Republic on a sponsor's exemption looking to get a victory on the PGA Tour that could see him wave goodbye to the DP World Tour.

Rasmus' twin heads the market and rightly so. He missed just one green yesterday as he constructed a bogey-free six-under-par 66 to draw alongside PGA Tour rookie Sam Stevens, who finished his round clumsily with a birdie at 17 sandwiched between two bogeys.

Hojgaard has already won a couple of times on the DP World Tour and that will hold him in good stead today but it's a very competitive leaderboard.

Tied for third and just one back, Wyndham Clark and Thomas Detry were the first two in the betting at the start of the week buy like the leaders, they too are in search of their first PGA Tour wins and I'm happy to swerve them both.

The 36-hole leader, Matt Wallace, is still on the premises despite a double-bogey at the third yesterday but the one I like is the experienced pre-event 55.054/1 chance, Tyler Duncan.

I kept an eye on Duncan's price before the off, hoping for a drift that never occurred, but I'm happy to take a tiny chance on him this morning at 10.09/1.

Having won the RSM Classic back in 2019, the 33-year-old is the only PGA Tour winner within a stroke of the lead.

Tied for seventh and just two adrift, Ricky Barnes, Austin Eckroat and Martin Trainer, are still in the argument and Trainer looks the most likely of the three to cause a surprise.

The closest 42-year-old Barnes ever came to victory on the PGA Tour was at the 2009 US Open, where he finished second to Lucas Glover, so it would be great to see him finally lift a trophy, but he's been notoriously flaky in-contention his entire career, and Eckroat needs to bounce back after a disappointing back-nine yesterday.

The 24-year-old was matched at just 3.5551/20 when he played his first eight holes in eight-under-par but he played his last ten holes in two-over!

Trainer looks a reasonable price at 34.033/1 given he was an impressive winner of the Puerto Rico Open in 2019.

09:20 - March 25, 2023

The world number two, Jon Rahm, has been eliminated at the group stage of the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play but five of the top-six seeds have progressed.

The defending champion, and pre-event favourite, Scottie Scheffler, has firmed up at the head of the market but we're now into a straight knockout set up and things will happen fast today.

The Round of 16 will be immediately followed by the Quarter Finals today so this time tomorrow we'll be down to just four.

Looking at the draw, I'm quite happy to be onboard both pre-event selection, Scheffler, and yesterday's in-play pick, Cameron Young, who appear to have easier pathways to the last four than the other remaining top seeds.

Should the number one seed, Scheffler, beat the 43rd seed, J.T Poston, this morning, he'll face the winner of the Jason Day (seeded 32) - Matt Kuchar (59) tie and if Young (15) can safely negotiate his Round of 16 match against Billy Horschel (22), he will meet the victor of the Kurt Kitayama (19) - Andrew Putnam (56) tie.

None of those matches are easy but the other quarters do look tougher if the seedings are any sort of gauge. Should Scheffler make it to the last four, he'll face whoever progresses from the Max Homa (5) - Mackenzie Hughes (59) and Sam Burns (13) - Patrick Cantlay (4) matches today and the last four in the other quarter are Rory McIlroy (3), who plays Lucas Herbert (46), and Xander Schauffele (6) and J.J Spaun (61).

Scheffler has firmed up into 5.49/2 in the outright market and he's closely followed by Rory (6.86/1), with Cantlay (9.617/2) the only other player trading at a single figure price.

I still like the look of Young, who's now into 11.521/2, and I thought Sam Burns looked fractionally big in both his match against Cantlay, where he's currently trading at a shade under 6/4, and in the outright, where he's a 25.024/1 chance but I'm going to leave the event alone for now and hope either Scheffler or Young, or possibly even both, can reach tomorrow's semi-finals.

Having to get past Homa and then either Cantlay or Burns to possibly face Scheffler, Mackenzie Hughes appears to have the toughest route to the final and he's the longest priced player left in at 60.059/1 but he'll be relieved to be here after losing his first match to Jordan Spieth 4&3 and he's given someone a sweat. Hughes has been matched in-running at 1000.0999/1.

Over in the Dominican Republic, the scoring was really low on day two of the Corales Puntacana Championship, where England's Matt Wallace now shows the way with two rounds to play. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:10.

Matt Wallace -11 4.57/2
Wyndham Clark -10 3.412/5
Sam Stevens -10 8.07/1
Nicolai Hojgaard -8 14.013/1
Akshay Bhatia -8 16.015/1
Tyler Duncan -8 17.016/1
Brice Garnett -8 30.029/1
Brandon Matthews -7 70.069/1
Rafael Campos -7 70.069/1
Thomas Detry -6 26.025/1
-6 and 40.039/1 bar

With a gap of two strokes back to those tied for fourth, the front three have a jump on the rest and the stats suggest that they may take some reining in but none of them appeal at the prices.

Nate Lashley sat tied for eighth and five adrift at this stage before winning the 2017 edition of this event but that's the furthest any winner has trailed after two rounds.

Wyndham Clark was a well-backed 10/1 favourite before the off and now that he trails by just a stroke, he's very much the man to beat, although he's still in search of his first PGA Tour win.

The leader, Matt Wallace, who's also looking to get off the mark on the PGA Tour, once looked bombproof, winning three times in 2018 on the DP World Tour but he hasn't won since, and he's looked more likely to fall out with his caddie than go on to win whenever he's been in-contention of late.

Sam Stevens is also looking for his first win and I can't help but think the value sits a bit further down the leaderboard.

Denmark's Nicolai Hojgaard finished nicely yesterday to throw his hat in the ring, and the more experienced pair of Tyler Duncan and Brice Garnett also command respect, but the one I like at this stage is the highly-promising 21-year-old, Akshay Bhatia, who shot a nine-under-par 63 yesterday, that should have been lower!

Having shot a seven-under-par 29 on the front-nine, which included a bogey at the second, Bhatia birdied the 10th and 12th to threaten a 59 or lower, but he cooled off after that - bogeying 13 and birdying 16 to shot a back-nine 34.

When Graeme McDowell won here back in 2019, he followed an opening 73 with back-to-back 64s to take up the running and after rounds of 73-63, Bhatia looks value to emulate him.

G-Mac sat tied for seventh and three back at halfway and Bhatia sits tied fourth and three adrift.

It's never easy to back up a low score and Bhatia may well drop away again today but his ceiling looks high and he can draw on his experience at the Puerto Rico Open at the start of the month where he shot 67-65 over the weekend to finish second.

21:00 - March 24, 2023

The second round of the Corales Puntacana Championship is drawing to a close and third day of the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play is close to a conclusion and the pre-event favourites are firming up.

Wyndham Clark still has two to play in the Dominican Republic but he's only two shots off the lead and Scottie Scheffler has safely navigated his way out of the group.

Both men began the week trading as favourites and they're still the men to beat in their respective events.

I'll be back in the morning with a look at those two events but the DP World Tour event - the Jonsson Workwear Open - has already reached the halfway stage. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 20:50.

Nick Bachem -13 7.87/1
Sami Valimaki -12 8.88/1
Romain Langasque -12 9.08/1
Gavin Green -11 12.523/2
Julien Brun -11 13.525/2
Marcel Schneider -11 18.017/1
Kalle Samooja -11 20.019/1
Ockie Strydom -11 24.023/1
Martin Vorster -11 60.059/1
-10 and 30.029/1

This is a wide-open event and not one I want to get too involved in, but there is one player I like at a juicy price...

Matt Cooper's each-way fancies, Sami Valimaki and Sebastian Soderberg, are bang in-contention but the one I couldn't resist a small wager on is South Africa's Ockie Strydom, who surged into contention today with an eight-under-par 64.

The 38-year-old is in search of his third DP World Tour win in just four months so although his form is wildly inconsistent, he knows how to get the job done and he looks a little over-priced at halfway.

10:50 - March 24, 2023

With three tournaments on the go at the same time it's a busy week and if yesterday is anything to go by, it looks like it could be a week to forget for yours truly.

Both of my pre-event picks - Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth - won their opening matches on Wednesday at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play and Scheffler comfortable beat Alex Noren yesterday so he's highly likely to advance to the round of 16, but that was as good as it got for me and my picks across the three tournaments.

Spieth reminded me that I won't miss the tournament (this is the last renewal) when he hit is drive in the water on the 13th hole when leading against Taylor Montgomery, and the other two tournaments - the Jonsson Workwear Open and the Corales Puntacana Championship - were equally frustrating.

Although he'd hit an absolute cracker on the short par four 13th on Wednesday before going on to eagle the hole from eight feet to go three up on Mackenzie Hughes, the circumstances were very different yesterday.

Hughes had driven first after winning the previous hole and driven to the edge of the green. Given he was two up and the Canadian had hit a great drive, going for it made sense.

Spieth had the honour against Montgomery, having just gone 1 up on the 12th so I felt going for the green wasn't at all necessary. He had the advantage and didn't need to press but he did. And once his drive found the drink, it was advantage Montgomery and the whole match turned form there.

Having been matched at a low of 14.527/2 when leading yesterday, and having lost to Montgomery 2&1, Spieth is now trading at a triple-figure price, and he needs a lot of help to advance.

As many as 21 of the original 64 have already been eliminated and by the end of the day we'll be down to 16. It looks like being an entertiang afternoon/evening and all the scenarios for all of the groups are detailed here.

When I first updated yesterday, pre-event pick, Thriston Lawrence, was tied for second at the Jonsson Workwear Open but he finished his opening round tardily to post a four-under-par 68 and having just began his second round, he's got quite a bit of work to do given he trails the current leader, Nick Bachem, by nine. The German has just posted a six-under-par 66 to get to -13.

I may be back later with a look at that one at halfway but with no live coverage, it's very hard to gauge how it's panning out and my enthusiasm for the event is waning. As it is in the Dominican Republic, where my picks fared particularly poorly on day one...

My sole pre-event selection, Ryan Gerard, posted a disappointing three-over-par 75 in the morning but I was especially bullish about one of my two Find Me a 100 Winner picks in the Corales Puntacana Championship - Cody Gribble - and I'd backed him accordingly.

I though Gribble looked a great bet at a triple-figure price but it wasn't to be.

After a poor start, he managed to get back to level-par before double-bogeying the ninth (his final hole) and my only other pick there, Derek Ernst, shot +5!

And if that wasn't bad enough, the man I backed in the event before the off 12 months ago at 55.054/1, Brice Garnett, ended the day tied for the lead with Ben Martin, having been matched at 180.0179/1 before the off this time around! Consider the wounds appropriately salted.

Anyway, today's another day and I'm happy to get Garnett onside this morning at 14.527/2. He clearly loves it here given he won the event in style back in 2018 and he's no bigger than 12/1 on the High Street so that looks a fair price. And I've also added one in the Match Play...

The big news before the off this week was the caddie switch between fading star, Webb Simpson, and the hugely promising, Cameron Young, and it's fair to say it's already showing signs of being a great move for Paul Tesori.

Young began the Match Play on Wednesday by shooting 27 on the front-nine (nine threes!) in his match against Davis Thompson and as you can see with the tweet below, he's clearly playing some tremendous golf.

Young followed his 3&2 win against Thompson with a 1 up win over Corey Connors yesterday and given he plays the already eliminated, Sepp Straka, today, he looks highly likely to make it through to the round of 16 when he'll be hoping to avoid Jon Rahm, who lost his opening match.

As already stated, I'm not a huge fan of this event from a punting perspective but I'm happy to add Young at 16.531/2 given how well he's playing.

09:05 - March 23, 2023

Day one of the final edition of the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play is all done and dusted and the biggest surprise from the opening matches was the number two seed, Jon Rahm, losing 2&1 to the 49th seed, Rickie Fowler.

It was the first time the world number two had lost his opening match in six appearances here and given 79.5% of players to advance out of the group stage, since the format changed in 2016, have won their opening match, that's not great news for the Spaniard.

Rahm is now out to 38.037/1, having been a 15.014/1 chance before the off and from a low of 8.07/1, he's now trading at 11.521/2 to win the US Masters in two weeks' time.

Not in the field for next week's event - the Valero Texas Open - Rahm will be very keen to progress here ahead of the year's first major championship but like anyone else that lost yesterday, his destiny is in the hands of others now and he's up against it.

Rahm wasn't the only high seeds to lose yesterday though. The number four seed, Patrick Cantlay, was given a scare by Nick Taylor, before winning 1 Up but there were defeats for three of the top-eight seeds.

In addition to Rahm, seeds seven and eight, Will Zalatoris and Viktor Hovland both lost and the English pair, Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton, who are seeded 11 and 14, were also defeated on day one.

The defending champ, Scottie Scheffler, has firmed up at the head of the market following his 1 Up win against Davis Riley, although he should have won earlier. He missed a three footer at 17 to win 2&1! And my only other pre-event pick, the bang-in-form fellow Texan, Jordan Spieth, still looks a fair price to me at 22.021/1 after he chipped in at the 15th hole for a 4&3 win over Mackenzie Hughes.

The first round of the Jonsson Workwear Open is underway in South Africa where the scoring is expectedly low again around Steyn City.

Pre-event fancy, Thriston Lawrence, who Matt Cooper was also keen on, has started nicely enough but both of my Find Me a 100 winner picks there, Jaco Ahlers and James Hart Du Preez, have started poorly.

My strongest longshot fancy this week though is Cody Gribble in the Corales Puntacana Championship and they're yet to kick off in the Dominican Republic so there's still time to back the in-form Texan there and Dave Tindall's had a look at the First Round Leader market in that event here too.

WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Pre-Event Selections:

Scottie Scheffler @ 11.010/1
Jordan Spieth @ 32.031/1

In-Play Pick:
Cameron Young @ 16.531/2

Jonsson Workwear Open Pre-Event Selections:

Adri Arnaus @ 22.021/1
Thriston Lawrence @ 36.035/1

In-Play Pick:
Ockie Strydonm @ 27.026/1

Corales Puntacana Championship Pre-Event Selection:

Ryan Gerard @ 60.059/1

In-Play Picks:
Brice Garnett @ 14.527/2
Akshay Bhatia @ 16.015/1
Tyler Duncan @ 10.09/1