The Punter's In-Play Blog: Odds-on Bradley leads the Travelers

• Odds-on shots in Germany and Connecticut

• Lawrence the BMW value with a round to go

• Bradley and Reavie dominate the Travelers market

• Thomas and Lee chanced at big prices

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10:40 - June 25, 2023

Joost Luiten leads the BMW International Open after a bogey-free seven-under-par 65 on Saturday and he leads by three with a round to go. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:20.

Joost Luiten -14 1.75/7
Daan Huizing -11 11.521/2
Thriston Lawrence -10 12.011/1
Edoardo Molinari -10 14.013/1
Daniel Hillier -10 15.529/2
-8 and 46.045/1 bar

Luiten described yesterday's third round as 'flawless' as he credited his new coach, Jamie Gough, for his upturn in form but can he convert his lead with just 18 to play?

Luiten is going to take a bit of catching. The 37-year-old has already won six times on the DP World Tour but he will feel some nerves today given he last tasted success five years ago.

München Eichenried isn't an easy place to front run. Haotong Li successfully converted a three-stroke lead 12 months ago but only after a playoff with Thomas Pieters, and Viktor Hovland also won from three in front in 2021 but prior to that, ten men had led or-led and the vastly experienced major winner, Ernie Els, in 2013, was the only one to win.

In the seven events before Hovland won here and since Martin Kaymer won in extra time in 2008, having began round four with a six-stroke lead, we've seen winners here trailing by two, three (twice), four and even five strokes (twice). And Anders Hansen was eight back before losing the playoff to Kaymer in 2008.

With that in mind, I'm not in any sort of rush to back the leader at odds-on and I'm happy to chance the 26-year-old South African, Triston Lawrence, who's already a three-time DP World Tour winner.

Over at the Travelers Championship, my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Denny McCarthy, was a big disappointment in round three.

On a day that saw Rickie Fowler shoot a ten-under-par 60, Patrick Cantlay fire 61 and Justin Thomas post 62, McCarthy's level-par 70 was never going to cut it and having led by four at one stage on Friday, he now trails by six.

It wasn't all bad news though. Chez Reavie, who I backed at 80.079/1 after round one, shot a seven-under-par 63 to keep tabs on Keegan Bradley, who shot 64, and the two are four clear of the rest. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:30.

Keegan Bradley -21 1.9420/21
Chez Reavie -20 4.03/1
Patrick Cantlay -16 9.89/1
Rickie Fowler -15 36.035/1
Adam Scott -15 50.049/1
Denny McCarthy -15 55.054/1
Scottie Scheffler -14 34.033/1
Justin Thomas -14 80.079/1
Min Woo Lee -14 120.0119/1
Brian Harman -14 130.0129/1
-14 and 230.0229/1 bar

Although the market suggest one of the front two is highly likely to win now, it's hard to get the job done here and it's a trader's paradise most years.

Paul Casey led by four with a round to go five years ago and he was matched at a low of 1.182/11 in-running before going on to get beat by three. Russell Knox won from three adrift after the clear odds-on leader, Daniel Berger, shot a disappointing 74 to finish tied fifth seven years ago and many a winner has come from even further back.

Marc Leishman trailed by six 11 years ago, as did Bubba Watson in 2010, and again five years ago, and the two veterans Watson beat in the playoff 13 years ago (Scott Verplank and Corey Pavin) came from six and eight shots back respectively!

When Brad Faxon won in 2005 he was trailing by 12 at halfway and by seven after three rounds. Phil Mickelson won from five back with a round to go in 2002 and Notah Begay and Woody Austin, like Knox, have both won the event this century from three off the pace. Ken Duke sat in a tie for 6th and was trailing by two ten years ago and Kevin Streelman was four back and trading at 55.054/1 in 2014.

Given how often we get an off the pace winner, and that only two men hold a clear advantage, I'm happy to take a chance on Justin Thomas, who's an industry best of 80/181.00 with the Sportsbook, and Min Woo Lee at 120.0119/1.

We nearly always get a dramatic tight finish here and eight of the last 19 renewals have gone to extra time.

08:00 - June 24, 2023

Pre-event 110.0109/1 chance, Denny McCarthy, began the second round of the Travelers Championship scruffily yesterday morning with a par at the first and a bogey at the second but following Thursday afternoon's heroics, when he came within a whisker of recording an 11-under-par 59, a slow start was always likely.

It's never easy to back up a low round and he didn't make a birdie until the par three eighth but his two there ignited the putter. He made the turn in level-par for the day and he played the back-nine in five-under.

Keegan Bradley rallied brilliantly in the afternoon after a drop of rain softened the course fractionally and he made five birdies in-a-row from the 12th to post a seven-under-par 63. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 07:50.

Denny McCarty -15 3.711/4
Keegan Bradley -15 3.953/1
Chez Reavie -13 12.523/2
Eric Cole -11 25.024/1
Adam Scott -10 30.029/1
Zac Blair -10 170.0169/1
-9 and 23.022/1 bar

Xander Schauffele hung on to win 12 months ago having led by five at halfway and Jordan Spieth won the event wire-to-wire in 2017, but this isn't an easy place to make the running and if the stats are anything to go by its still a very open event.

The 2021 winner, Harris English, trailed by four in a tie for 20th at halfway and in the last ten years we've also seen winners come from as far back as six, seven and even eight strokes after 36 holes. And Brad Faxon won the event in 2005 having sat tied for 68th and 12 back!

That will give plenty of encouragement to the likes of Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, and the defending champ, Schauffele, who are trailing by seven on -8 and trading between 22/123.00 and 30/131.00, and to Scottie Scheffler 28.027/1 and Patrick Cantlay 44.043/1, who trail by eight. World class players like that will feel that they're still in the argument but none of them make much appeal at the prices.

I'm more than happy to have another Find Me a 100 winner pick in with a great chance, just days after 120.0119/1 pick, Wyndham Clark, won the US Open, and I'm pleased to have got the 2019 winner, Chez Reavie, onside after round one, but I've still added one more to the portfolio.

I missed the price on Tom Kim before the off, so I've got him onside now at 100.099/1. He's alongside Scheffler and Cantlay on -7 and I thought that was a fair price.

Longshots leading in Munich

21:00 - June 23, 2023

Given he'd missed four of his last five cuts, Daniel Hillier's fifth place finish at the KLM Open in his penultimate start looked like a bit of a one off but after his weekend off at the European Open two weeks ago, the pre-event 240.0239/1 chance has bounced back to form and he leads the BMW International Open by a stroke at the halfway stage. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 20:50.

Daniel Hillier - 9 7.413/2
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen -8 30.029/1
Joost Luiten -7 8.415/2
Marcel Schneider -6 14.013/1
Sami Valimaki -6 18.017/1
Jayden Schaper -6 19.018/1
Adrien Saddier -6 36.035/1
Marc Hammer -6 80.079/1

Selected others
Adrian Meronk -5 12.011/1
Calum Hill -5 25.024/1
Marcel Siem -5 26.025/1
Pablo Larrazabal -4 23.022/1
-5 and 40.039/1 bar

Hillier leading is a bit of a surprise and so too is the presence on the leaderboard of the 23-year-old Dane, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, who's playing in his first DP World Tour event since he graduated from Oklahoma State.

Neergaard-Petersen was matched at 1000.0999/1 before the off and so too was Germany's Marc Hammer, who's one of five players tied for fourth behind Joost Luiten in third, who went off at 50.049/1.

With as many as many as 25 players within five of the inexperienced leader the event looks wide-open and the stats suggest it is too...

Haotong Li won wire-to-wire 12 months ago and the 2021 winner, Viktor Hovland, sat second at halfway but we can scan some way down the leaderboard with two rounds to go if history is any sort of gauge.

David Horsey trailed by five strokes when he won here in 2010 and that's the furthest any winner has been trailing by at halfway this century but that's quite misleading given we've seen players beaten in extra time having trailed by five, six (twice) and eight strokes.

I've taken a very small chance on Neergaard-Petersen, who sounded quite confident after his round today as he spoke of how the last two Korn Ferry Tour winners are recent college grads. That could inspire him and he could be anything.

I thought he was worth a small chance at 38.037/1 and I backed Daniel Gavins at 80/181.00 with the Sportsbook this afternoon.

Gavins is largely inconsistent, but he's already won twice on the DP World Tour. He was cut after the market was reworked once the second round had finished but I'll look to back him on the exchange as well if he drifts to any bigger than that.

He's alongside my pre-event pick, Pablo Larrazabal, on -4.

09:55 - June 23, 2023

The second round of the BMW International Open is underway on the DP World Tour and I'll back this evening with a look at that event at the halfway stage but for now I'm concentrating on this week's PGA Tour action in Connecticut.

Jim Furyk shot the lowest round ever on the PGA Tour at TPC River Highlands in 2016 - a 12-under-par 58 - and Patrick Cantlay fired a ten-under-par 60 there 12 years ago when still an amateur so it wasn't a surprise to see super low scores on day one of the Travelers Championship yesterday.

Morning starter, Keegan Bradley, was the first to threaten to break 60 when he raced to eight-under-par through 12 holes, but he played the final third of his round in level-par (one bogey, one birdie).

Afternoon starter, Adam Scott, played his first 16 holes in nine-under-par but he double-bogeyed the 17th hole when his approach fell short and into the water.

The Aussie veteran rolled in a birdie putt from 20 feet on the 18th to get back to eight-under-par, but he and Keegan both trail my Find Me a 100 Winner selection, Denny McCarthy, by two strokes after the 30-year-old came this close to recording a 59.

SO CLOSE! @_DennyMcCarthy nearly holes out for eagle at the final hole for a 59! pic.twitter.com/qDJbfvAWg7

? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 22, 2023

The last man to open the Travelers Championship with a ten-under-par 60 was Canada's Mackenzie Hughes. He led by three in 2020 but he could only finish third.

We've seen 11 men hold a clear lead after round one this century and four of them went on to win - Hunter Mahan (2007), Kenny Perry (2009), Bubba Watson (2015) and Jordan Spieth (2017).

It's clearly not a huge sample size but those stats suggest McCarthy is a fair price at around 11/26.50 and anyone wanting a little more encouragement to side with the early pacesetter can look to the fact that only three men have led by two strokes after round one - Mahan, Perry and Watson - and they all went on to win.

Alone in fourth place and trailing by four strokes after an opening 63 yesterday afternoon is the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, and he's the understandably warm 3.7511/4 favourite and the aforementioned Cantlay, who sits tied for fifth after a five-under-par opener, is the 10/111.00 third favourite but neither makes much appeal.

Yet again Scheffler's tee-to-green number are exceptional. He ranks first for Strokes Gained Approach and second for Greens In Regulation after the first round and he made some nice putts at the end of his round (birdied four of the last six) but his putting wasn't spectacular.

Scheffler ranks 35th for Putting Average and 43rd for SG Putting after round one and as I have been writing week after week for some time now, he needs to putt better if he's going to win. Especially in a tournament of this nature.

Cantlay clearly enjoys the track but this is his ninth appearance and he's yet to finish inside the top-ten so that tempers my enthusiasm for the world number four.

It's 25.024/1 bar Cantlay and the front four but the stats suggest we can scan much further down the leaderboard...

The 2018 winner, Bubba Watson, trailed by seven strokes in a tie for 77th after round one and despite shooting one stroke better than Bubba on day one (69) the 2020 champ, Dustin Johnson, was even further adrift. DJ sat tied for 79th and nine off the lead.

Ken Duke was eight back after round one when he won in 2014, 12 months before Kevin Streelman took the title, despite sitting seven adrift in a tie for 61st after the opening round so a slow start can be overcome here.

I've thrown a few pounds at the 2019 winner, Chez Reavie, after his six-under-par opening round and I've also backed last year's runner-up, J.T Poston, at 320.0319/1.

Poston, who won the John Deere Classic two weeks after finishing second here, trails by six in a tie for 16th so he's not too far back looking at some of the results here. He played nicely from tee-to-green yesterday and he'll climb the leaderboard today if he can find a few more putts to drop.

BMW International Open Pre-Event Selections:
Pablo Larrazabal @ 36.035/1
Dale Whitnell @ 95.094/1

In-Play Picks:
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen @ 38.037/1
Daniel Gavins @ 80/181.00 (Sportsbook)
Triston Lawrence @ 12.523/2

Travelers Championship Pre-Event Selection:
Harris English @ 85.084/1

In-Play Picks:
Chez Reavie @ 80.079/1
J.T Poston @ 320.0319/1
Tom Kim @ 100.099/1
Justin Thomas @ 80/181.00 (Sportsbook)
Min Woo Lee @ 120.0119/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
2 u Denny McCarthy @ 110.0109/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1.5 u C.T Pan @ 210.0209/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1u Brandon Wu @ 360.0359/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

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