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Leader looks poised to get off the mark
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Experienced Kirk still in the mix
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Recent history suggests laying a lay bet makes sense
07:45 - January 15, 2023
As many as 12 different players held at least a share of the lead during the third round of the Sony Open and as many as eight were tied at the top at one point but after a hole out eagle at the par four tenth, and this tap-in eagle three on 18, which saw him sign for a second successive six-under-par 64, pre-event 130.0129/1 chance, Hayden Buckley, will take a two-stroke lead into today's fourth and final round.
Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 7:30.
Hayden Buckley -15 3.052/1
Chis Kirk -13 8.27/1
David Lipsky -13 9.417/2
Ben Taylor -13 12.011/1
Si Woo Kim -12 10.519/2
Andrew Putnam -12 11.521/2
Will Gordon -11 29.028/1
Nate Lashley -11 60.059/1
-10 and 38.037/1 bar
Playing in his second Sony Open (12th on debut 12 months ago) and in his 40th PGA Tour event, Buckley looks to have an outstanding chance to get off the mark for the first time on the PGA Tour after his stunning finish to round three.
This is the first time he's led on the PGA Tour through three rounds, but Buckley is looking for his third career win and his in-contention record suggests there's no reason to doubt he can make that next step.
He converted a three-stroke 54-hole lead (albeit after a playoff) at the ATB Financial Classic on the Canadian Tour in 2019 and he won the LECOM Suncoast Classic on the Korn Ferry Tour in extra time in 2021, having been tied for the lead after 54 holes.
History tells us Buckley's in the right place and he's most definitely the man to beat.
Fabian Gomez was a 55.054/1 chance through 54 holes when he sat fifth and four off the lead before beating Brandt Snedeker in a playoff here seven years ago and two years later, James Hahn was beaten in extra time by Patton Kizzire having trailed by as many as seven strokes through 54 holes, so it is possible to come from off the pace here but it's highly unusual.
The last six winners have sat first or second with a round to go and Gomez and Vijay Singh, who also trailed by four before taking the title in 2005, are the only winners this century not to within two of the lead with a round to go.
Buckley is the seventh man to take a two-stroke lead into round four at the Sony Open this century and three of the previous six went on to win.
The veteran on the leaderboard, Chis Kirk, is the only player inside the top-four and within two of Buckley to have won before but the four-time PGA Tour winner wasn't convinced it's a big advantage when asked after round three.
"I don't know, probably not, if I had won three weeks ago maybe, but it's been a little while. I definitely know what it takes, but also know it's not easy to do.
"But I definitely like where I'm at," Kirk continued. "I like the way my golf game feels. Obviously am very comfortable and love this place, so I'm excited for the opportunity against these guys that haven't won. Most of them are probably 15 years I younger than me."
At 34, David Lipsky is actually only three years Kirk's junior and although he hasn't won on the PGA Tour, he's twice tasted victory on the DP World Tour and he can't be readily dismissed, although he and Kirk will both need to putt slightly better today.
So far this week, Lipsky ranks eighth for Putting Average and 28th for Strokes Gained Putting and Kirk ranks 23rd and 12th for those two stats. The leader ranks fifth and eighth and putting has been the key to victory here of late...
As many as 12 of the last 13 winners have ranked inside the top-10 for SGP and the last six winners have had a PA ranking of third, sixth, second, fifth, second and first.
Although being up with the pace is clearly very important, and Buckley looks a fair price at anything over 2/1, it's not easy to convert from the front if the last few years are anything to go by.
As many as four of the last five 54-hole leaders have been beaten and the last three absolutely threw the title away.
A year after Brendan Steele was matched at just 1.111/9 in-running before getting beat by Cameron Smith in extra time in 2020, he was matched at a low of 1.374/11 before getting caught and passed by Kevin Na and after having led by five with only nine to play last year, Russell Henley was matched at just 1.061/18 in-running!
The leaders don't go off until 20:00 in the UK time so it's going to be a late finish for anyone that wants to trade in-running but placing a cheeky lay bet at skinny odds-on on Buckley may just provide a pleasant surprise tomorrow morning.
09:05 - January 14, 2023
Had Davis Thompson not deemed it too dark to make the three putts required from 57 feet on the 18th green to make the cut on -2, we'd have reached the halfway stage of the Sony Open yesterday and punters would have had a host of two or three balls to paw over (I'm not sure whether it's two balls or three balls in round three) but he's decided to wait to finish up so we haven't officially reached the halfway stage.
Assuming Thomson does get down in at least three swipes, 76 players will make the weekend but incredibly, despite yesterday's confidence, Jordan Spieth isn't one of them!
A shellshocked Spieth, who's the first player to lead after round one and miss the cut at the Sony Open (played since 1965) and the first at a PGA Tour event since Matt Every at Bay Hill in 2020, was matched at a low of 4.131/10 but after what he described as a "weird, weird day", the world number 15 heads home alongside the pre-event favourite, Tom Kim, and we're left with a leaderboard containing plenty of pre-event outsiders.
Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 9:00.
Chris Kirk -11 6.86/1
Taylor Montgomery -10 5.95/1
J.J Spaun -10 6.86/1
Hayden Buckley -9 14.527/2
David Lipsky -9 19.018/1
S.H Kim -8 34.033/1
Ben Taylor -8 48.047/1
Austin Eckroat -8 55.054/1
-7 and 24.023/1 bar
Having finished runner-up here in both 2014 and 2021, Chris Kirk heads into the weekend with a one-stroke lead, bidding to make it third time lucky.
When he finished second, he sat fifth at this stage in 2014 and second in 2021 and he also sat second here in 2018 before finishing tenth so he had plenty of course form in the bank and his pre-event odds of 130.0129/1 look generous now.
Having led by a stroke at halfway, Kirk won the RSM Classic ten years ago but on the last occasion he led at this stage, at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in 2020, he finished 21st so it's a job to know what to expect this weekend. On the only other occasion he's led at halfway, at the Houston Open in 2011, he finished second, beaten by three.
Kevin Na shot 61 in round three two years ago to move from tied 19th and five adrift to second, trailing by two with a round to go, before winning and Fabian Gomez sat tied for 16th and five back at halfway before taking the title in 2016 but off the pace winners are rare.
Hideki Matsuyama was five back last year, but he was still inside the top-five and Vijay Singh trailed by five in a tie for 11th but every other winner this century has been inside the top-eight places and within four of the lead at halfway.
Given eight of the last nine winners have played in last week's Sentry Tournament of Champions and only one debutant has taken the title since the inaugural event in 1965, my pre-event pick, J.J Spaun, is the stat pick at halfway.
The current favourite, Taylor Montgomery, is playing here for the first time and Spaun, who was fifth last week, is the only player inside the top-eight that teed it up at the Plantation Course.
I'm more than happy with Spaun's position at halfway but it could have been better.
He hit a terrible drive to find the canal right of the fairway on his final hole - the par five ninth - which is the easiest hole on the course, and had he birdied or eagled the hole, as more than half the field did, he'd have been leading going into the weekend.
That late hiccup apart, Spaun played well all day and he putted nicely too.
Maybe he was buoyed by the presence of a surprise spectator - his retired high school principal. Rita Kear, who just happened to be on vacation with her husband.
"I saw her on the first tee and I was like, 'Oh my God, is that Mrs. Kear?' Sure enough was," Spaun said after the round. "Small world."
In addition to cheering on Spaun, and my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Chez Reavie, who sits tied for 16th and only five off the lead, I've now added a small wager on J.T Poston, who sits tied for ninth and four strokes adrift.
Poston, who played in the Sentry last week, was on the shortlist before the off and I thought he was fairly priced at around 30.029/1.
10:30 - January 13, 2023
Play was suspended at the Sony Open yesterday with the last couple of groups yet to finish their opening rounds.
Daylight usually falls here before the PGA Tour's first full field event of the year can get in the house on day one so it's nothing new.
It certainly didn't hinder the early starters, Jordan Spieth, and Chris Kirk, who both opened with six-under-par 64s and they were joined later in the day by Korn Ferry Tour graduate, Taylor Montgomery.
Here's the current state of play with prices to back at 10:25.
Jordan Spieth -6 5.59/2
Taylor Montgomery -6 9.417/2
Chris Kirk -6 22.021/1
Harris English -5 15.014/1
Denny McCarthy -5 21.020/1
Brendon Todd -5 26.025/1
S.H Kim -5 (thru 16 holes of rnd 1) 40.039/1
Ben Griffin -5 48.047/1
David Lipsky -5 50.049/1
Rory Sabbatini -5 90.089/1
-4 and 20.019/1 bar
As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, the last three winners have all been trailing by five after the opening round and the 2016 winner, Fabian Gomez, sat tied for 68th and six off the lead, so we can't readily dismiss any of the 78 players currently under-par.
Johnson Wagner sat tied for 30th and five back in 2012 so we've seen five winners start slowly this century but the other 17 were all within four strokes after the first round and as many as five players have won here wire-to-wire this century, so frontrunners have a decent record.
It's a job to know just what to expect this year. The rough is up again, making it a trickier test that usual, but the forecasts suggest the wind won't be too ferocious so scoring should continue to be reasonable.
For the record, the last wire-to-wire winner, Justin Thomas, started the tournament with an 11-under-par 59 but the other four started with rounds of 63, 64, 64 and 65.
Looking at the three leaders, Spieth has a fine frontrunning record. He's led or co-led 13 times previously after the opening round and he's gone on to win five times. He's been beaten on each of the last four occasions he's led after round one, but only twice has he finished outside the front three places so expect him to hang around.
In contrast, Kirk has led or co-led eight times after round one but he's never gone on to win and Montgomery finished third and second on the Korn Ferry Tour on the two occasions that he's led after round one.
Given how congested the leaderboard is, that he's yet to win on any Tour, and that only one course debutant has won at Waialae since the event was first staged here in 1965, Montgomery looks far too short.
After a mixed start, I'm happy to sit on my hands for now. Pre-event pick, Mackenzie Hughes, looks out of it already but J.J Spaun has started nicely (-4) and that's despite missing far more fairways than he usually does, and so too have two of my three Find Me a 100 Winner picks - Brandan Steele (-4) and Chez Reavie -3.
There's a very long way to go and I'm happy to see what today brings so I'll be back again tomorrow with a look at the state of play at halfway.
Pre-Event Selections:
J.J Spaun @ 55.054/1
Mackenzie Hughes @ 75.074/1
In-Play Pick:
J.T Poston @ an average of 32.031/1
Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 2u Adam Svensson 100.099/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 2u Brendan Steele 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 1u Chez Reavie 260.0259/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter