Find Me a 100 Winner: Big odds Svensson an obvious pick at the Sony Open

• The Punter picks out three outsiders to trade in Hawaii

• Strong angle in impossible to ignore

• Read my Sony Open preview here

As highlighted in the preview, outsiders have a very decent record in the Sony Open and following a tried and tested and very simple system, which I've again applied this time around, I've managed to back a couple of them...

I managed to back Patton Kizzire, who drifted all the way out to 130.0129/1 before the off in 2018, as well as 110.0109/1 chance, Fabian Gomez, who took the title in 2016.

In addition to Kizzire and Gomez, 120.0119/1 chance, Kevin Na, also won here two years ago and all three have something obvious in common - they all teed it up the week before in the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

As many as 17 of the last 24 Sony Open winners, and eight of the last nine, have played the Sentry Tournament of Champions the week before they won here so it's an angle in that needs to be considered strongly.

The market is dominated by the high-class players that played the Sentry last week but as Na, Kizzire and Gomez have shown, ignoring the obvious often pays dividends and the first of my two picks to have teed it up in Kapalua is Canada's Adam Svensson.

Box ticking Svenson an obvious pick

Putting has been the key to success at Waialae lately so that's a huge negative for Svensson who was quite frankly hopeless on the dancefloors last week.

Rounds of 71, 70, 78 and 68 saw him finish 37th of 39 last week and he ranked 38th for both Putting Average and Strokes Gained Putting.

If he performs like that here, he won't even make the weekend, but things can change fast on the greens and there are numerous reasons to ignore last week and get him onside at a triple-figure price.

Svensson was in the field last week thanks to his maiden victory in the last full field event on the PGA Tour last year - the RSM Classic - where he ranked number one for SGP - and he finished seventh here 12 months ago when he putted quite nicely. And that wasn't the first time he'd shown a liking for the venue. He shot 61 to lead after round here on his only other start in 2019 before eventually finishing 43rd.

The RSM Classic is played at the Seaside Course, which correlates very nicely with Waialae and the fact he's won so recently is a big plus given five of the last eight Sony winners had won earlier in the wraparound season.

Back 2u Adam Svensson 100.099/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Could it be third time lucky for Brendan?

Brendan Steele didn't play last week and the last time we saw him, at the Houston Open in November, he withdrew after 13 holes of the fourth round with a bad back.

Steele also missed the cut here 12 months ago so there are at least a couple of red flags waving, but he must be backed at 130.0129/1 given how close he's come to winning here on not just one but two occasions.

Steele was matched at a low of 1.111/9 in 2020 when leading by three with just seven to play before getting beat in extra time by Cam Smith and he hit a low of 1.374/11 12 months later when he led by three with nine to play but he again fell short, this time finishing tied for fourth.

It's asking a lot for him to hit the ground running and contend again but I'm happy to take a chance at such a juicy price.

Back 2u Brendan Steele 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Reavie worth risking at a juicy price

My third and final pick is last year's Barracuda Championship winner, Chez Reavie, who already has a couple of top-ten finishes around Waialae.

This will be the 12th time the 41-year-old has teed it up at the Sony Open and he has a mixed bag of results, but he clearly likes the place if his eighth in 2017 and his third two years later is anything to go by.

Reavie has placed form at three venues that correlate nicely - Colonial Country Club, TPC Southwind and El Camaleón - and he's one of the 19 players in the field of 144 that teed it up in the Sentry TOC last week.

It wasn't a spectacular effort given he only finished 35th but he did sign off with a five-under-par 68 on Sunday and a fourth PGA Tour success this week isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

Back 1u Chez Reavie 260.0259/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

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