The Punter's De-Brief: Ruthless Rahm reels in Morikawa

• Morikawa suffers another meltdown

• Rahm reels in the 54-hole leader in style

• Hot putting the secret to success in Maui again

• Read my Sony Open preview for this week here

After three brilliant bogey-free rounds of 64, 66 and 65, pre-event 28.027/1 chance, Collin Morikawa, began the final round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions with a commanding six stroke lead.

Trading at 1.241/4, defeat looked unlikely and after he'd birdied the opening hole and three of his first six to stretch his advantage to seven, it looked even more unlikely.

A three-putt par at the short and simple par five fifth was the only clue to what was to come but he was matched at a low of 1.021/50 (52k matched at 1.031/33) and anything but a straightforward win looked utterly implausible.

The 8.415/2 pre-event favourite, Jon Rahm, began the final day trailing Morikawa by seven and he was matched at a high 120.0119/1 after he'd bogeyed the opening hole but he soon turned things around.

There's a tired old saying that many a great round begins with a bogey (many more bad ones do too!) and the Spaniard's ten-under-par 63 yesterday is one to add to the list.

Rahm birdied four of his next five after the hiccup at one and after another pick up at nine, he played holes 12 to 15 in five-under-par. And when he drew alongside Morikawa on the leaderboard when this eagle putt dropped at 15, he went odds-on for the first time.

5-under in his last four holes @JonRahmPGA is now tied for the lead @Sentry_TOC. pic.twitter.com/MHEqVXzxiE

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 8, 2023

While Rahm was chipping in to Morikawa's huge advantage, the overnight leader was just ticking along, parring holes seven to 13. He missed a birdie putt at the par five ninth from inside eight feet and a couple of 11-footers, but he appeared to playing nicely enough. That all changed at the drivable par four 14th though when he thinned this approach from the bunker.

Winning is hard.

Once leading by 7, Collin Morikawa is now tied for the lead.

His first bogey of the week results in a co-lead with Jon Rahm. pic.twitter.com/PRiFBqvfGr

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 8, 2023

Duffed chip shots at the par five 15th and the straightforward 16th resulted in another pair of bogeys and in a matter of three holes the title was well and truly lost. Having gone 67 holes without a dropped shot, he'd made three bogeys in-a-row and his birdie at the last merely reduced the gap between him and Rahm to two strokes.

A lot will be made of Morikawa's meltdown, and rightly so, but the winner deserves plenty of credit.

This track appears to suit Rahm perfectly and over the last two years, having reached 33-under-par when finishing second to Cam Smith, he's now an incredible 60-under-par. And he's 38 under on the back nine alone!

Rahm has now won three of the last five tournaments he's played and he's down to just 11.010/1 to win the year's first major - the US Masters.

Putting the secret to success again

As suspected, putting was the key to success again and that was what separated Morikawa and Rahm on Sunday. The Spaniard ranked first for Putting Average and second for Strokes Gained Putting and Morikawa ranked fifth and second for those two metrics.

Rahm managed to win despite rankling 35th of 39 for Driving Accuracy and the front two ranked second and first for Par 4 Scoring.

Is it getting harder to convert a big lead?

When Collin Morikawa took a five-stroke lead into the final round of the Hero Challenge at Albany 13 months ago he was the 31st to lead by five on the PGA Tour since 1996 and only five of the previous 30 had failed to convert.

Only one of the previous ten five stroke 54-hole leaders had been beaten (Charley Hoffman at Albany in 2017) but long odds-on backers got their fingers burnt.

Having been matched at just 1.081/12 in-running, Morikawa shot a dreadful four-over-par 76 to finish tied for fifth and he was beaten by four.

Just two months later, Daniel Berger took a five-stroke lead into the final round of the Honda Classic but he shot 74 to finish tied for fourth (beaten by three), having been matched at a low of 1.171/6, and in-between Morikawa and Berger's final round flops, Russell Henley was beaten at this week's event, the Sony Open, having been matched at a low of just 1.061/18 when he led by five with just nine to play!

Losing a huge lead was a rare occurrence on the PGA Tout but following Morikawa's defeat yesterday, two of the last three players to lead by six through 54 holes have been beaten!

Henley gained redemption for his Sony collapse at the World Wide Technology Championship in November when he won by four having led by six but Scottie Scheffler led the Tour Championship by half a dozen before getting overhauled by Rory McIlroy at East Lake.

I very much doubt that the modern-day pros are getting more nervous with a lead than their yesteryear compatriots and I suspect it's more to do with just how capable they are to post a super low score but whatever the reason, given we've now seen four huge 54-hole leads lost in 13 months, caution is definitely advised and laying your pick back to guarantee a profit makes sense if they hold a sizable lead.

The PGA Tour hops from Maui to Oahu for the Sony Open which I've previewed here.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter