08:45 - July 3, 2022
Poland's Adrian Meronk birdied three of his last four holes in round three of the Irish Open to hit the front but with eight players within three strokes, it's still wide open ahead of today's fourth and final round. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:30.
Adrian Meronk -14 3.55/2
Fabrizio Zanotti -13 7.613/2
Jorge Campillo -13 9.08/1
Jack Senior -13 11.521/2
John Catlin -12 11.521/2
Espen Kofstad -12 20.019/1
Lucas Herbert -11 13.012/1
Thriston Lawrence -11 29.028/1
-10 and 29.028/1 bar
Sooner or later the talented Pole, Meronk, is going to get off the mark on the DP World Tour.
He won the Open de Portugal on the Challenge Tour back in 2019 but his best result to date on the DP World Tour is second at the Alfred Dunhill Championship in 2020 and he's also finished third at the British Masters last year and the Qatar Masters back in March. That illusive first title is going to come but he looks short enough to me at around 5/2 here.
Meronk was tied for the lead in Qatar in March, but he shot 75 in round four, and he shot 76 at the Alfred Dunhill Championship in the final round to fall from first to third in 2020.
It's going to be a momentous occasion when he eventually becomes the first Pole to win on the DP World Tour and it could well be today but I'm happy to swerve him at the price.
Paraguay's Fabrizio Zanotti is playing exceptionally well from tee-to-green and if the putts start dropping, he could be the man today and I'm happy to be on Jorge Campillo, who still looks nicely priced given his position.
Both men are looking for their third titles and both make more appeal than Jack Senior, who like Meronk, is yet to win on the DP World Tour.
Tied for fifth are yesterday's big movers, the 2020 Irish Open winner at Galgorm Castle, John Catlin, and the 34-year-old Norwegian, Espen Kofstad. Both shot seven-under-65s to move up from tied 22nd to tied fifth and of the two, Catlin must be the most likely to kick on and win.
Catlin has impressed in-contention and he's already won three times on the DP World Tour, whereas Kofstad is looking for his first victory - although he has tasted success on the Challenge Tour four times.
Tied for seventh and three off Meronk's lead are the two players I fancy to make a move today - the defending champ, Lucas Herbert, and the Joburg Open winner, Triston Lawrence, who looks a juicy price at 29.028/1.
Lawrence's victory in his homeland was over only 36 holes thanks to the weather but the 25-year-old is more than capable of stepping up and going in again and given he's no bigger than 20/1 on the High Street, the 29.028/1 on the exchange is more than fair.
This is a tough one to call and I could have very easily left the event alone for now but that 29.028/1 is just too big to ignore.
Over on the PGA Tour, Scott Stallings and Emiliano Grillo got to within a stroke of the halfway leader, JT Poston, at the John Deere Classic during yesterday's third round but an eagle at the par five 17th has put Poston back in command with a round to go. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard in Illinois with prices to back at 8:35.
JT Poston -19 2.0811/10
Denny McCarthy -16 7.26/1
Scott Stallings -16 7.413/2
Emiliano Grillo -16 9.08/1
Callum Tarren -15 20.019/1
Chris Naegel -14 60.059/1
Bo Hoag -14 95.094/1
-13 and 55.054/1 bar
Lucas Glover caused a bit of a shock last year - winning from four adrift and tied 12th with a round to go - and we have to go all the way back to 1981 to find the previous player to win this title from outside the top-ten with a round to go but that doesn't mean we haven't witnessed plenty of drama over the years.
Jordan Spieth was six back and tied for ninth with 18 to play in 2013 before he birdied five of the last six to claim his first title and Bryson DeChambeau trailed by four before he got off the mark on the PGA Tour in 2017.
We've also seen a couple of other winners come from four off the pace at Deere Run this century and Sean O'Hair sat five off the lead in 2005 so Poston's still vulnerable, despite the nice finish yesterday - although the stats suggest he should probably be slightly shorter than he is at present.
On the PGA Tour since 1996, 132 players have taken a three-stroke lead into the final round of a 72-hole PGA Tour event (including co-sanctioned tournaments) and 69 (52%) of them went on to convert. The last man to do so was Scottie Scheffler at the US Masters.
The last four winners on the PGA Tour have begun the final round leading or tied for the lead and playing in the final group but the value this morning might just sit with Denny McCarthy, who's tied for second.
Ranking fourth for Driving Accuracy and second for both Greens In Regulation and Scrambling, McCarthy is playing some quite brilliant golf and if a few more putts drop I can see him reeling in the leader.
Currently ranked fifth for Strokes Gained Putting and third for Total putting on the PGA Tour, there's scope for improvement in that department today and odds in excess of 7.06/1 look fair. He looks the most sensible alternative to the leader.
Scott Stallings is the more experienced of the two players tied for second and he'll be happy to be eyeballing the leader in the final two-ball, but I prefer McCarthy.
Stallings has already won three times on the PGA Tour but on the eight occasions he's been within three of the lead with a round to go since he won the last of his three (the 2014 Farmers Insurance Open) he's been beaten, and he was eight points bigger than McCarthy before the off.
McCarthy is looking to win for the first time on the PGA Tour and that must be viewed as a bit of a negative but this a great place for up-and-coming players. As many as 23 in total and five of the last eight winners have been getting off the mark on the PGA Tour for the first time here.
12:25 - July 2, 2022
Pre-event 50.049/1 chance, JT Poston, backed up his magnificent nine-under-par 62 at the John Deere Classic on Thursday with a steady 65 yesterday afternoon and he's clearly the man to beat. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 12:20.
JT Poston -15 2.6413/8
Denny McCarthy -11 8.07/1
Emiliano Grillo -10 19.018/1
Christopher Gotterup -10 21.020/1
Matthias Schwab -10 27.026/1
Chris Naegel -10 42.041/1
Maverick McNealy -9 18.535/2
Scott Stallings -9 22.021/1
C.T Pan -9 28.027/1
-9 and 30.029/1 bar
Poston is a in a strong position and as Justin Ray points out below, recent stats suggest he has a better than 50/50 chance of converting.
Mickael Kim, in 2018, was the last 36-hole leader to win at Deere Run. He led by three and won by eight, but in the last ten years we've seen three winners come from five back and Zach Johnson trailed by four at this stage in 2012. All four were outside the top-ten with two rounds to go.
Poston's sole success to date on the PGA Tour came in the 2019 Wyndham Championship, when he sat three off the lead after rounds two and three, but he really should be looking for his third title after last year's Barbasol Championship...
Poston led by a stroke after rounds two and three on that occasion and he was matched at a low of 1.021/50 deep on the back-nine on Sunday but he finished the event poorly, double-bogeying the par five 15th and bogeying 16. To his credit, he composed himself enough to par the last two holes, but he lost the playoff to Seamus Power at the sixth extra hole and that may have left a mark.
I layed him at odds-on last night after he'd birdied the 13th and I'm happy to remain against him. There's still a very long way to go and if he doesn't keep moving forward he'll soon get swallowed up.
Nobody has led the event at halfway by as many as four at Deere Run but only three of the 16 clear halfway leaders here have converted. As highlighted above, Kim converted from three clear, but Darren Stiles finished only ninth in 2009, having led by three at this stage, and I'm happy to remain against Poston.
22:35 - July 1, 2022
We've reached the halfway stage of the Irish Open and the front three on the leaderboard were all drawn PM-AM.
The wind picked up this afternoon, which pushed the cut line from -3 to -2, and those drawn PM-AM enjoyed an advantage over their counterparts of 1.58 strokes. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 22:25.
Jorge Campillo -11 10.09/1
Adrian Meronk -10 6.411/2
Fabrizio Zanotti -10 9.417/2
Seamus Power -8 7.06/1
Aaron Rai -8 12.011/1
Sebastian Soderburg -8 32.031/1
David Law -8 40.039/1
Jack Senior -8 50.049/1
Frederic Lacroix -8 50.049/1
Nino Bertasio -8 80.079/1
Ryan Fox -7 17.533/2
Lucas Herbert -7 21.020/1
Mikko Korhonen -7 40.039/1
James Morrison -7 110.0109/1
-6 and 46.045/1 bar
As highlighted in the preview, the last three course winners were all in front at this stage. Both Lucas Herbert and Tiger Woods won here wire-to-wire and Ernie Els was in control at halfway in 2004, suggesting the leader is a fair price at 10.09/1.
Campillo has only won two DP World Tour titles but that's two more than the market leader, Adrian Meronk, and I'm happy to take a small chance on him.
Campillo was sitting seventh at halfway, and trailing by two, when he won his first title, the 2019 Trophee Hassan II, but he was in front at halfway when he won the Qatar Masters a year later.
In addition to backing the leader, I've also thrown a few pounds at last week's runner-up, Thomas Pieters, at 70.069/1 and the British Masters winner, Thorbjorn Olesen at 170.0169/1.
No doubt suffering a bit of a hangover after losing to Haotong Li in extra time in Germany last week, Pieters opened the event with a 73 yesterday but he got his skates on today with a five-under-par 67 so he's clearly in-form.
Pieters trails by seven so he's got his work cut out but I thought 70.069/1 was fair and Olesen is just too big given he has a fine record on tree-lined tracks and that he only trails by six.
The last three course winners may have been in front but it's not a big sample size and if the front three tread water tomorrow this is a wide-open event.
14:35 - July 1, 2022
Spain's Jorge Campillo has posted a halfway total of 133 (11-under-par) at the Irish Open and with the wind forecasted to pick up this afternoon, he may not be headed.
The in-form Kiwi, Ryan Fox, who's been matched at a low of 4.47/2, is the man most likely to catch Campillo but I'm more than happy to sit on my hands for now and take a good look at halfway.
Over on the PGA Tour, J.T Poston has kicked off the John Deere Classic with a nine-under-par 62 but he's an afternoon starter today so he should be headed by the time he tees off.
Again, I'll take a proper look at halfway but as I've had an in-running pick, I thought I'd get the blog kicked off.
As highlighted in the John Deere Classic preview, we've seen some star names get off the mark in this event, with the likes of David Toms, Payne Stewart, Jordan Spieth, and Bryson DeChambeau all winning their first PGA Tour title at the John Deere Classic.
And as many as five of the last eight winners of the JDC were winning for the first time so I'm happy to take a chance on Christopher Gotterup who I mentioned in the Find Me a 100 Winner column on Wednesday.
Gotterup posted a six-under-par 65 yesterday afternoon so he tees off shortly and I thought 20.019/1 looked fair.
Irish Open Pre-Event Selection:
Tyrell Hatton @ 22.021/1
John Deere Classic Pre-Event Selections:
Cam Davis @ 46.045/1
Cameron Champ @ 75.074/1
In-Play Trades:
Christopher Gotterup backed @ 20.019/1
JT Poston layed @ 1.9520/21
Denny McCarthy @ 7.26/1
Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
1 pts Kiradech Aphibarnrat @ 250.0249/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1 pts Andy Sullivan @ 280.0279/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1.5 pts Ryan Moore @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1.5 pts Ryan Moore Top-ten finish @ 12.011/1 (Sportsbook)
1.5 pts Scott Brown @ 220.0219/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1.5 pts Scott Brown Top-ten finish @ 15.014/1 (Sportsbook)
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